2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Gass3268]

If you want to know what's really going on in Texas, take a look at how John Cornyn is talking about Donald Trump right now.

https://twitter.com/startelegram/status/1317789745309749248?s=20

https://twitter.com/evanasmith/status/1317903714942881793?s=20

He's terrified if he's willing to now publicly break with Trump on issues. Not saying Biden/Hegar is winning, but it's obviously close.

[Gass3268]

That Denton number... something wild is happening in that county.

High Republican turnout...

Given every single poll we’ve seen that Republicans aren’t going to vote early, doubtful.

[Gass3268]

According to the Harris County Clerk, 32,300 people have voted today (as of 6PM). They are also planning to have a 24-hour long voting event so that second and third shift workers can come in and vote as well. This is a tremendous undertaking.

They only started at noon today as well.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Wertwhile/status/1317989057494962176?s=20

[Gass3268]

Yeah baring any major changes Nevada looks pretty solid for Biden.

[Gass3268]

are there any updates on that whole issue with NC ballots being rejected?  have people been curing them?  I worry that with Dems requesting more mail ballots they will have a lot more rejections.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1318055155695312896

OK I guess that sounds promising that they are aware of the issue.  Plus with so many people voting early that can be checked off the list, Dems have more time to focus on helping them correct the issue.

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1317888352591450113?s=20

[Gass3268]

Some early in person partisan data:

https://twitter.com/winwithjmc/status/1318166694754471936?s=21

[Gass3268]

Pretty funny how the absentee dynamics in both Florida and Nevada basically flipped.

[Gass3268]

Waited about 40 minutes to vote in Skokie, Illinois on the first day of expanded early voting in Cook County. Would have been quicker if we didn't have almost 60 judges we had to vote on. Overheard folks saying "Can't wait to vote this guys out" and "We helped save the world" if you want to know want to know what the general mood was.

[Gass3268]

Steve Schale seems more excited than he was last week, but is still urging caution.

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1318209943540015104?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1318328000941871104

Yup, Dems need to pack the court. 5 out of 9 justices are anti-democracy

the PA law states that ballots must be received by election day and the Governor changed that.


https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/governor-wolf-signs-election-reform-bill-including-new-mail-in-voting/

And the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that it was okay because of the pandemic. Shows that the majority of the court doesn't care about Federalism.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1318328000941871104

Yup, Dems need to pack the court. 5 out of 9 justices are anti-democracy

the PA law states that ballots must be received by election day and the Governor changed that.


https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/governor-wolf-signs-election-reform-bill-including-new-mail-in-voting/

And the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that it was okay because of the pandemic. Shows that the majority of the court doesn't care about Federalism.

Its the legislature that decides rules not the freakin unelected courts . This shows exactly why we need a conservative court cause liberal justices believe the courts should be super legislatures

Lol this court is elected

The Constitution clearly states the state legislature is what is supposed to decide the rules not the  judicial branch in the states.


John Roberts really disappointed me cause I thought he was a strict constructionist

You don't seem to understand how checks and balances work.

OSR only supports Federalism when it helps Republicans.

[Gass3268]

So essentially OSR seems to be arguing a state legislature should be unchecked. Because when you think that the state Supreme Court reaffirming a executive order by a governor to extended absentee ballots on the reasonable grounds of we are in the middle of a pandemic that the legislature hasn’t done solely for partisan/undemocratic reasons are the ones out of line then you are essentially calling for the state legislature to be have the power to rig out democracy to their liking

Correct, he supports the dictatorship of the gerrymandered state legislature.

[Gass3268]

There seems to be confusion as to what SCOTUS can do here, which isn't much.  Even if the rule was stayed it was unlikely to be struck down.  The US Constitution gives the Federal Government the right to preempt the state governments if it has a specific power enumerated to it.  The state government, through its various branches can determine its own laws and rules as long as they aren't preempted.  The PA Supreme Court has the final say on violations of the STATE constitution.  The Federal Gov. can't preempt in this situation.  

Did the PA court rule this law as unconstitutional or did they just unilaterally  just amend it

https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/governor-wolf-signs-election-reform-bill-including-new-mail-in-voting/

They can interpret it how they please.  Your link proves my point though.  The governor must sign a law.  Your convoluted theory of the US constitution seems to imply that the legislature has unilateral power without any checks from the Governor or the Courts.  This is settled Federal case law.  

Anyways, it was a ridiculous legal argument that would have never won even if it got a stay.  Lets not get this thread off topic.

Scary thing is there will probably be 5 to 6 votes for unchecked rule by the state legislature unconfined by state supreme courts, people's initiative, or even state governor.

[Gass3268]

There seems to be confusion as to what SCOTUS can do here, which isn't much.  Even if the rule was stayed it was unlikely to be struck down.  The US Constitution gives the Federal Government the right to preempt the state governments if it has a specific power enumerated to it.  The state government, through its various branches can determine its own laws and rules as long as they aren't preempted.  The PA Supreme Court has the final say on violations of the STATE constitution.  The Federal Gov. can't preempt in this situation.  

Did the PA court rule this law as unconstitutional or did they just unilaterally  just amend it

https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/governor-wolf-signs-election-reform-bill-including-new-mail-in-voting/

They can interpret it how they please.  Your link proves my point though.  The governor must sign a law.  Your convoluted theory of the US constitution seems to imply that the legislature has unilateral power without any checks from the Governor or the Courts.  This is settled Federal case law.  

Anyways, it was a ridiculous legal argument that would have never won even if it got a stay.  Lets not get this thread off topic.

Of course the governor has to sign it into law lol and yes the courts can rule a law unconstitutional  but that is not what they did here and instead just unilaterally amended it

A state court is allowed to make decisions about deadlines, property rights, etc., if it's a state constitutional issue.  Also settled law.  Move on from this.

Also this decision lets votes that haven't been even postmarked to be counted so its a clear violation of the law which they did not rule unconstitutional.


Its one thing to extend it its one thing to do bs like that

Many post offices don't use postmarks for whatever reason.

[Gass3268]

The GOP usually wins the in person early vote, don't they? So how is this bad news for Dems? Not to mention, if GOP is only breaking even on in-person whens Dems have already racked up a 500K lead in Mail ballots...

I think the Dems usually win in person early voting.  GOP usually wins absentee ballots.

We are seeing the reverse in Nevada too.

[Gass3268]

Big Connecticut dump with 22.2% of the 2016 vote with 371,595 votes.

Democrats - 52.5%
Republicans- 14.5%
Minor- 1.4%
No Party Affiliation - 31.6%

[Gass3268]

~27% of the voters so far in El Paso County didn't vote in 2016.

https://twitter.com/BradfordPearson/status/1318360571117506561

[Gass3268]

So a net gain of >6K votes for Democrats in Nevada despite Republicans winning the early vote (though not by much).

I can tell that Ralston doesn't feel as comfortable with what he's seeing the year because it's so different than it is normally.

[Gass3268]

52,959 votes received in Wisconsin yesterday, a 6.14% increase. Tuesday tends to be one of the bigger days for returns as they count ballots received from over the weekend. Wisconsin is now at 64.68% of absentee requests, 25.56% of registered voters, and 30.78% 2016 voters. Dane County did not hit 50% of 2016 voters before in-person absentee voting started today, but they did hit 47%. I would not be shocked to see them pass 50% with tomorrow's update with in-person absentee voting. Milwaukee County keeps plugging along, adding the most new raw votes at 7,929. They are now up to 33.78% of 2016 votes cast, which is good for #4 in the state, impressive given some of the early concerns.

Milwaukee also coming out strong for the first day of in-person early voting:

https://twitter.com/shaqbrewster/status/1318559854701780992?s=20

https://twitter.com/BadgerPol/status/1318560961591185409?s=20

https://twitter.com/mdesisti/status/1318546966222147585?s=20

https://twitter.com/RyanJenkins_TV/status/1318551273243901952?s=20

In terms of other areas, Ozaukee and Waukesha continue to do a solid job returning votes, 32.77% and 32.04% of 2016 respectively. Washington County isn't at that same level, but more in the middle of the pack at 26.39%. The Fox Valley/Cities are coming in strong too, which makes sense given the COVID-19 outbreak there. Brown (36.67%), Outagamie (33.07%), and Winnebago (31.74%) are all over the state %. Let me know if there are any other areas you'd like to know about.

[Gass3268]

Snip

The lines in Milwaukee are a promising sign for Biden right?

Yes and it appears that the majority are African American voters.

[Gass3268]

Couple Wisconsin notes:
- Election workers won't go home until every vote is counted.
- Most municipalities in Wisconsin count their absentee ballots at polling places on Election Day, but Milwaukee and 38 other communities count their absentee ballots in a central location. I'm trying to find out who those 38 other communities are. Milwaukee is trying to get permission from the Wisconsin Elections commission the right to do an initial release of absentee voters of what they were able to count during the day.

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1318569467610337280?s=20

[Gass3268]

Couple Wisconsin notes:
- Election workers won't go home until every vote is counted.
- Most municipalities in Wisconsin count their absentee ballots at polling places on Election Day, but Milwaukee and 38 other communities count their absentee ballots in a central location. I'm trying to find out who those 38 other communities are. Milwaukee is trying to get permission from the Wisconsin Elections commission the right to do an initial release of absentee voters of what they were able to count during the day.

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1318569467610337280?s=20

Communities that will have centralized absentee ballot counting places in Wisconsin:

City of Ashland (Ashland/Bayfield)
City of De Pere (Brown)
City of Green Bay (Brown)
Village of Allouez (Brown)
Village of Ashwaubenon (Brown)
Village of Bellevue (Brown)
Village of Hobart (Brown)
Village of Suamico (Brown)
Town of Cottage Grove (Dane)
Town of Oregon (Dane)
City of Superior (Douglas)
City of Kenosha (Kenosha)
Village of Pleasant Prairie (Kenosha)
Town of Somers (Kenosha)
Village of Somers (Kenosha)
City of Manitowoc (Manitowoc)
City of Wausau (Marathon)
City of Franklin (Milwaukee)
City of Milwaukee (Milwaukee)
City of West Allis (Milwaukee)
City of Oak Creek (Milwaukee)
Village of Shorewood (Milwaukee)
City of South Milwaukee (Milwaukee)
City of Wauwatosa (Milwaukee)
Village of Greendale (Milwaukee)
City of West Allis (Milwaukee)
Village of Combined Locks (Outagamie) (Has authority to do so, but does not use)
Town of Grand Chute (Outagamie)
City of Beloit (Rock)
City of Janesville (Rock)
City of Hudson (St. Croix)
City of River Falls (St. Croix)
City of West Bend (Washington)
Village of Germantown (Washington)
City of Brookfield (Waukesha)
City of New Berlin (Waukesha)
City of Pewaukee (Waukesha)
Village of Menomonee Falls (Waukesha)
Village of Fox Crossing (Winnebago)
City of Neenah (Winnebago)

[Gass3268]

Pennsylvania is doing the same thing as Wisconsin. Or at least the Southeastern counties + Philly are. Continuously counting for 24 hours a day until they finish.

The main difference is that I’m pretty sure PA absentee ballot voting is centralized by county, instead of dispersed by ward/town/municipality like Wisconsin.

[Gass3268]

Florida in-person EV: Day 2 as of 11:40 AM

Rep 47,943
Dem 37,917
NPA/Other 16,993
Total 102,853

Cumulative total:

Rep 200,986
Dem 190,532
NPA/Other 75,220
Total 466,738

https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

safe to say, republicans are churning out their votes on Day 2 so far

alot of smaller Florida counties arent reporting their in person results, I wonder whats going on there

They start early vote later.