Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[Gass3268]

Does anyone have the turnout by county for 2016?

[Gass3268]

This is like real life House of Cards. I wouldn't be surprised if they make a vice style movie or show about this caucus.

This feels less House of Cards and more VEEP.

[Gass3268]

Main reason why Pete is winning the SDEs:

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/1225122759954575361?s=20

[Gass3268]

Caucuses need to be outlawed.

Thankfully Nevada is the only "real" caucus left.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1225135946657648641?s=20

[Gass3268]

Biden got a national delegate back.

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/1225137894475603972?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1225139369201274881?s=20

[Gass3268]

Looks like this was mostly from more rural/suburban counties. Nothing new from Polk, Story, Linn, Johnson, or Black Hawk. Biden might still fall short of 15%.

I'm guessing he will.

[Gass3268]

So Pete won Iowa, but Bernie also "won" Iowa.

Other way around.

I think Pete gets the official victory here, Bernie gets the ability to say he got the most votes.

Pete gets the "official" "victory" because of the DNC spinning their ridiculous measurement and the media falling for it. So Pete has "won" in the mathematical abstractions of a bullsh*t media bubble, while Bernie has won in the real world of real people.

As somebody else in this thread previously suggested, this is akin to saying on November 9th, 2016, that "Trump got the "official" "victory" because of the USA spinning their ridiculous measurement and the law falling for it. So Trump has "won" in the mathematical abstractions of a bullsh*t Electoral College, while Hillary has won in the real world of real people."

The bottom line, of course, was that Trump still won.

Considering that, when it comes to a presidential primary, delegates are all that matter, Pete gets the official victory because he is the delegate winner. Plain & simple, end of.

Nobody cares about Iowa because of its delegate count. It's 1% of the final convention total, for f**k's sake. People care about Iowa for the narrative it sets about which candidates are most able to demonstrate support. The best indicator of candidate support is the popular vote.

Anyway, if you really want to award this based on delegates, then it's national convention delegates you should care about (where Pete might come out on top, but it's just as likely to be tied). SDEs are a meaningless counting trick that amount to nothing in itself.

But the national delegates are allocated based on the SDEs, which is why they are the most important number.

[Gass3268]

Black Hawk County Iowa supervisor, fed up with waiting, posted the full county results on Facebook

1. Sanders 2,149 votes 155 County Delegates
2. Buttigieg 1,578 votes 111 County Delegates.
3. Warren 1,244 votes, 87 County Delegates.
4. Biden 986 votes, 85 County Delegates.
5. Klobuchar 862 votes, 55 County Delegates.
6. Yang 33 Votes, 4 County Delegates
7. Steyer 27 votes, 4 Delegates.

Full SDE count in the county based on these numbers:

Sanders: 31.25
Buttigieg: 22.38
Warren: 17.54
Biden: 17.14
Klobuchar: 11.09
Yang: .81
Steyer: .81

Compared to NYTimes projection:

Sanders: 31.11
Buttigieg: 23.64
Warren: 18.38
Biden: 13.13

These are legit good numbers for Biden in his quest to stay over 15% statewide.

[Gass3268]

So Pete won Iowa, but Bernie also "won" Iowa.

Other way around.

I think Pete gets the official victory here, Bernie gets the ability to say he got the most votes.

Pete gets the "official" "victory" because of the DNC spinning their ridiculous measurement and the media falling for it. So Pete has "won" in the mathematical abstractions of a bullsh*t media bubble, while Bernie has won in the real world of real people.

As somebody else in this thread previously suggested, this is akin to saying on November 9th, 2016, that "Trump got the "official" "victory" because of the USA spinning their ridiculous measurement and the law falling for it. So Trump has "won" in the mathematical abstractions of a bullsh*t Electoral College, while Hillary has won in the real world of real people."

The bottom line, of course, was that Trump still won.

Considering that, when it comes to a presidential primary, delegates are all that matter, Pete gets the official victory because he is the delegate winner. Plain & simple, end of.

Nobody cares about Iowa because of its delegate count. It's 1% of the final convention total, for f**k's sake. People care about Iowa for the narrative it sets about which candidates are most able to demonstrate support. The best indicator of candidate support is the popular vote.

Anyway, if you really want to award this based on delegates, then it's national convention delegates you should care about (where Pete might come out on top, but it's just as likely to be tied). SDEs are a meaningless counting trick that amount to nothing in itself.

But the national delegates are allocated based on the SDEs, which is why they are the most important number.

This is utterly absurd logic. Either you're concerned with the ultimate material outcome, and thus you care about national convention delegates, or you're concerned with actual support, in which case you care about the popular vote. Touting some intermediate mathematical construct as the "true" arbiter of who won makes no sense under either standpoint.

Gonna have to agree to disagree.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1225164593284120578?s=20

[Gass3268]

Numbers are probably wrong.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1225168116994445312?s=20

[Gass3268]

Steyer got Warren's SDEs too. What a joke!

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1225173253485887489?s=20

[Gass3268]

As someone who works in spreadsheets and numbers, I have legit pity for the poor staffer that is dealing with all this data and probably fatfingered up those last set of numbers.

I have zero pitty for those at the top that got us into this mess and didn't even double check the results that were going to be released.

[Gass3268]

Unless the local party counted/reported wrong (which is possible):

https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1225180108253691906?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1225219245610610689

Seems like hot air to me considering the remaining vote appears to be more favorable to Buttigieg

Oh great, Sanders math is back.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1225261639529902081?s=20

[Gass3268]

Another batch is in, up to 96% reporting.

[Gass3268]

gass3268, why are you against sanders?

Lots of reasons, but this isn't the place. Would still obviously get my unconditional support against Trump.

[Gass3268]

Looks like Joe is going to clear 15% statewide.

[Gass3268]

It does seem plausible for Sanders to catch Buttigieg in the SDE count if the satellites are still out?

The needle disagrees, unless the needle doesn't understand how to figure in the satellites.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/tylerpager/status/1225272553255645184?s=20

[Gass3268]

If only NYT would update their precinct maps on time.

Give them a break. Matching tabular data into GIS is a pain, and I'm speaking from experience.

My apologies to NYT.

OK now I'm wondering what's taking them so long to update. They did so much more quickly the other times. I hope they didn't just go to bed...

Looks like it's updated now.

The forecast still isn't.

Nate Cohen might have gone to bed.

[Gass3268]

CD #3 satellite dropped

Buttigieg SDE lead is down to 4.