Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Gass3268]

Senate Race By Senate District:

[Gass3268]

Senate Race By Senate District:
Snip

So Rs won 15 under that right? Of course Ds currently hold SD10 and Rs held unto vukmirs district and maybe a few others that baldwin won this year.

Evers won 12 Senate Districts. This includes 1 represented by Republicans (17-Southwest), but does not include 3 represented by Democrats (10-Twin Cities Area, 25-Lake Superior Shoreline, 30-Green Bay).

Baldwin won 18 Senate Districts. This includes 5 represented by Republicans (5-Waukesha East, 17-Southwest, 18-Oshkosh, 19-Appleton, 24-Stevens Point), but does not include 1 represented by Democrats (10-Twin Cities Area).

It's also pretty clear that Democrats really had no chance of holding 1-Door County.

[Gass3268]

Going to start posting some election information by city, staring with the ten largest as of 2017 census estimates. I did not include turnout for the Senate race as it's not a even comparison (2012 being a Presidential year, 2018 being a Midterm).

1. Milwaukee (Milwaukee, Ozaukee & Waukesha - 595,351 - City)
Senate - 81.90%-17.90% - Margin: 64.00% - Swing: 7.23%
Governor - 78.18%-19.74% - Margin: 58.43 - Swing: 4.4% - Turnout: +5.45%

2. Madison (Dane - 255,214 - City)
Senate - 84.97%-14.87% - Margin: 70.11% - Swing: 15.36%
Governor - 82.54%-15.49% - Margin: 67.05% - Swing: 9.37% - Turnout: +17.89%

3. Green Bay (Brown - 105,116 - City)
Senate - 59.42%-40.39% - Margin: 19.02% - Swing: 5.39%
Governor - 52.89%-44.25% - Margin: 8.64% - Swing: 11.43% - Turnout: +15.31%

4. Kenosha (Kenosha - 99,877 - City)
Senate - 65.41%-34.42% - Margin: 30.99% - Swing: 3.00%
Governor - 59.87%-36.88% - Margin: 22.99% - Swing: 6.35% - Turnout: +22.00%

5. Racine (Racine - 77,542 - City)
Senate - 71.51%-28.31% - Margin: 43.20% - Swing: 0.91%
Governor - 65.80%-31.15% - Margin: 34.65% - Swing: 3.66% - Turnout: +8.54%

6. Appleton (Calumet, Outagamie & Winnebago - 74,653 - City)
Senate - 58.34%-41.65% - Margin: 16.70% - Swing: 11.07%
Governor - 57.25%-42.37% - Margin: 14.88% - Swing: 20.74% - Turnout: +9.63%

7. Waukesha (Waukesha - 72,489 - City)
Senate - 47.52%-52.31% - Margin: -4.80% - Swing: 13.55%
Governor - 41.56%-56.41% - Margin: -14.85% - Swing: 17.57% - Turnout: +12.73%

8. Eau Claire (Chippewa & Eau Claire - 68,587 - City)
Senate - 65.90%-33.94% - Margin: 31.96% - Swing: 14.16%
Governor - 60.33%-37.01% - Margin: 23.32% - Swing: 12.97% - Turnout: +18.18%

9. Oshkosh (Winnebago - 66,665 - City)
Senate - 60.10%-39.74% - Margin: 20.36% - Swing: 7.74%
Governor - 54.73%-42.79% - Margin: 11.94% - Swing: 10.47% - Turnout: +9.96%

10. Janesville (Rock - 64,359 - City)
Senate - 64.91%-34.98% - Margin: 29.93% - Swing: 6.40%
Governor - 61.01%-36.36% - Margin: 24.65% - Swing: 6.89% - Turnout: +15.97%

[Gass3268]

I haven't been following closely.  Can someone tell me if the Republican attempts to limit the new Democratic Governor's power in Wisconsin and Michigan include limiting the Governor's veto power over redistricting plans?  If not (if it would take a 2/3 vote in each House to override a veto of a redistricting plan), then as bad as all this is, the Democrats would just have to keep at 1/3 + 1 of one house of the Legislature in 2020, get a neutral map in 2020, win in 2022 and undo this mess.

If, however, the WIGOP and/or MIGOP are trying to limit the Governor's power to veto redistricting plans (or make it so it only takes a simple majority to override the veto, then it might be time to start a GoFundMe page to put hits on Republican Legislators [/sarcasm].

Michigan is gonna have a commission. There is a theory floating around that the legislature would be able to pass the maps not as a bill, which would need a signature, but as a something else which would not. We won't know if it will happen until 2021 or if they try to pass a constitutional amendment.

[Gass3268]

Here are the next 10 cities/villages:

11. West Allis (Milwaukee - 59,934 - City)
Senate - 57.49%-42.21% - Margin: 15.27% - Swing: 12.15%
Governor - 51.06%-46.29% - Margin: 4.77% - Swing: 14.03% - Turnout: +6.43%

12. La Crosse (La Crosse - 51,834 - City)
Senate - 71.31%-28.69% - Margin: 42.61% - Swing - 15.69%
Governor - 65.70%-31.29% - Margin: 34.41% - Swing - 11.69% - Turnout +23.40%

13. Sheboygan (Sheboygan - 48,329 - City)
Senate - 58.38%-41.45% - Margin: 16.93% - Swing: 4.26%
Governor - 51.68%-46.04% - Margin: 5.64% - Swing: 9.07% - Turnout: +8.32%

14. Wauwatosa (Milwaukee - 48,277 - City)
Senate - 62.64%-37.15% - Margin: 25.48% - Swing: 25.67%
Governor - 57.27%-41.10% - Margin: 16.17% - Swing: 20.84% - Turnout: +10.45%

15. Fond du Lac (Fond du Lac - 42,809 - City)
Senate - 50.39%-49.53% - Margin: 0.86% - Swing: 2.54%
Governor - 44.15%-53.88% - Margin: -9.73% - Swing: 5.56% - Turnout: +6.94%

16. New Berlin (Waukesha - 39,740 - City)
Senate - 40.70%-59.16% - Margin: -18.46% - Swing: 11.92%
Governor - 34.57%-64.15% - Margin: -29.58% - Swing: 11.83% - Turnout: +7.60%

17. Wausau (Marathon - 38,739 - City)
Senate - 57.30%-42.56% - Margin: 14.74% - Swing: 4.54%
Governor - 49.68%-47.70% - Margin: 1.98% - Swing: 5.39% - Turnout: +11.24%

18. Brookfield (Waukesha - 38,739 - City)
Senate - 40.32%-59.59% - Margin: -19.27% - Swing: 18.80%
Governor - 35.54%-63.32% - Margin: 27.79% - Swing: 17.77% - Turnout: +8.02%

19. Menomonee Falls (Waukesha - 37,443 - Village)
Senate - 42.41%-57.45% - Margin: -15.04% - Swing: 14.70%
Governor - 35.44%-63.22% - Margin: -27.77% - Swing: 13.18% - Turnout: +10.52%

20. Greenfield (Milwaukee - 36,827 - City)
Senate - 53.73%-46.11% - Margin: 7.62% - Swing - 10.67%
Governor - 46.96%-51.08% - Margin: -4.11% - Swing: 10.94% - Turnout: +11.34%

[Gass3268]

Here are the next 10 cities/villages:

11. West Allis (Milwaukee - 59,934 - City)
Senate - 57.49%-42.21% - Margin: 15.27% - Swing: 12.15%
Governor - 51.06%-46.29% - Margin: 4.77% - Swing - 14.03% - Turnout: +6.43%

12. La Crosse (La Crosse - 51,834 - City)
Senate - 71.31%-28.69% - Margin: 42.61% - Swing - 15.69%
Governor - 65.70%-31.29% - Margin: 34.41% - Swing - 11.69% - Turnout +23.40%

13. Sheboygan (Sheboygan - 48,329 - City)
Senate - 58.38%-41.45% - Margin: 16.93% - Swing: 4.26%
Governor - 51.68%-46.04% - Margin: 5.64% - Swing: 9.07% - Turnout: +8.32%

14. Wauwatosa (Milwaukee - 48,277 - City)
Senate - 62.64%-37.15% - Margin: 25.48% - Swing: 25.67%
Governor - 57.27%-41.10% - Margin: 16.17% - Swing: 20.84% - Turnout: +10.45%

15. Fond du Lac (Fond du Lac - 42,809 - City)
Senate - 50.39%-49.53% - Margin: 0.86% - Swing: 2.54%
Governor - 44.15%-53.88% - Margin: -9.73% - Swing: 5.56% - Turnout: +6.94%

16. New Berlin (Waukesha - 39,740 - City)
Senate - 40.70%-59.16% - Margin: -18.46% - Swing: 11.92%
Governor - 34.57%-64.15% - Margin: -29.58% - Swing: 11.83% - Turnout: +7.60%

17. Wausau (Marathon - 38,739 - City)
Senate - 57.30%-42.56% - Margin: 14.74% - Swing: 4.54%
Governor - 49.68%-47.70% - Margin: 1.98% - Swing: 5.39% - Turnout: +11.24%

18. Brookfield (Waukesha - 38,739 - City)
Senate - 40.32%-59.59% - Margin: -19.27% - Swing: 18.80%
Governor - 35.54%-63.32% - Margin: 27.79% - Swing: 17.77% - Turnout: +8.02%

19. Menomonee Falls (Waukesha - 37,443 - Village)
Senate - 42.41%-57.45% - Margin: -15.04% - Swing: 14.70%
Governor - 35.44%-63.22% - Margin: -27.77% - Swing: 13.18% - Turnout: +10.52%

20. Greenfield (Milwaukee - 36,827 - City)
Senate - 53.73%-46.11% - Margin: 7.62% - Swing - 10.67%
Governor - 46.96%-51.08% - Margin: -4.11% - Swing: 10.94% - Turnout: +11.34%

I grew up in Wauwatosa, and it used to be pretty Republican. I know it voted for Bush and Obama twice, but didn't it also vote for Walker three times? Looks like Tosa is starting to vote like the North Shore suburbs.

Wauwatosa is were Walker got his start in the Wisconsin State Assembly. Funny thing is WI-14, the only seat that Democrats gained this year, was Walker's seat. Pretty sure he won it his three prior times.

[Gass3268]

Here is 21-30:

21. Beloit (Rock - 36,773 - City)
Senate - 68.50%-31.38% - Margin: 37.12% - Swing: 0.61%
Governor - 63.12%-33.50% - Margin: 29.63% - Swing: 6.83% - Turnout: +27.11%

22. Oak Creek (Milwaukee - 36,354 - City)
Senate - 50.55%-49.26% - Margin: 1.29% - Swing: 10.27%
Governor - 44.06%-54.24% - Margin: -10.18% - Swing: 11.52% - Turnout: +14.96%

23. Franklin (Milwaukee - 36,143 - City)
Senate - 46.30%-53.62% - Margin: -7.32% - Swing: 11.15%
Governor - 39.20%-59.43% - Margin: -20.24% - Swing: 10.69% - Turnout: +12.35%

24. Sun Prairie (Dane - 32,894 - City)
Senate - 71.16%-28.65% - Margin: 42.51% - Swing: 21.01%
Governor -  67.88%-30.11% - Margin: 37.77% - Swing: 16.68% - Turnout: +17.75%

25. Manitowoc (Manitowoc - 32,697 - City)
Senate - 52.90%-47.01% - Margin: 5.89% - Swing: -1.19%
Governor - 44.00%-53.74% - Margin: -9.74% - Swing: 2.95% - Turnout: 4.09%

26. West Bend (Washington - 31,596 - City)
Senate - 39.97%-60.03% - Margin: -20.05% - Swing: 6.02%
Governor - 32.74%-65.58% - Margin: -32.84% - Swing: 8.41% - Turnout: 5.98%

27. Fitchburg (Dane - 29,485 - City)
Senate - 78.77%-21.09% - Margin: 57.69% - Swing: 20.67% (Turnout actually higher than 2012)
Governor - 76.28%-22.15% - Margin: 54.14% - Swing: 14.59% - Turnout: 20.56%

28. Mount Pleasant (Racine - 26,525 - Village)
Senate - 52.56%-47.25% - Margin: 5.31% - Swing: 4.19%
Governor - 46.63%-51.62% - Margin: -4.99% - Swing: 4.56% - Turnout: 12.08%

29. Stevens Point (Portage - 26,293 - City)
Senate - 67.80%-31.97% - Margin: 35.83% - Swing: 9.41%
Governor - 62.66%-33.65% - Margin: 29.02% - Swing: 10.09% - Turnout: 15.53%

30. Superior (Douglas - 26,194 - City)
Senate - 67.65%-32.30% - Margin: 35.35% - Swing: -2.67%
Governor - 63.35%-33.71% - Margin: 29.64% - Swing: -1.08% - Turnout: 22.42%

[Gass3268]

Very sad. Urban-rural divide will get worse with ignorance like this.

https://twitter.com/repvos/status/1072312325032603648

So Robin is say more or less “black people’s votes don’t count”?

In the case of the City of Milwaukee, yes. However, there aren't a lot of black people in Dane County (~5%). There are more Asians and Hispanics in Dane County (~6% for each group).

[Gass3268]

Are we going to see some recall attempts next year based on these power grabs (genuine question, I'm not too familiar with Wisconsin electoral law)?

I doubt it, considering how the last recall attempts turned out. Yes, the Dems picked up two senate seats that way, but on the whole the movement backfired on them. I don't think they'll want to try it again.

And really only one stuck (SD-32), funny enough she 's now the Senate Minority Leader. Also of the seats eligible for recall, there really aren't that many of the even number seats that are competative. Maybe they could try SD-08 or SD-24, but both would be extremely difficult for different reasons.

[Gass3268]

Working on some historical maps. Can anyone guess what this is a map of?

[Gass3268]

Working on some historical maps. Can anyone guess what this is a map of?

1850's governor? Very weird seeing Washington and Ozaukee dark red, even though they were really rural back then.

Wrong office, but your only off by a decade for the year.

[Gass3268]

Working on some historical maps. Can anyone guess what this is a map of?

1850's governor? Very weird seeing Washington and Ozaukee dark red, even though they were really rural back then.

Wrong office, but your only off by a decade for the year.

Here is the prior election. Some counties are essentially counties in name only. Some did not provide vote totals, while others were for almost all maters extensions of neighboring counties. Hopefully this can provide another clue as to what the other map is showing.

[Gass3268]

Either 1860 Presidential or 1861 Senate.  I think the key is that Ashland County exists in the map for this election, but not the previous one.

You got it! It was the 1860 Presidential Election. Here is Lincoln's reelection map in Wisconsin:



You can see the Democratic strength among the German immigrants who settled along the lakeshore. As a group they were against the war and very much against the draft. You can also see some of the remains of the Democratic strength in the southwest part of the state, which was originally settled by miners from Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia who came to mine lead. The Republican strength was in the southeast row of counties from Kenosha/Racine to Rock. This area was heavily settled by moralist Yankees from New England and New York. I have yet to find the precise data, but this area big supporters of the Free Soil Party during the 1848 election and to a lesser extent in 1852. Another area of Republican strength came from the growing Scandinavian immigrant communities in the west central part of the state. 

[Gass3268]

First post election Marquette poll release will happen in about 5 minutes.

Tweets here

[Gass3268]

Foxconn as expected is a sham. AG Kaul should sue them.

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1090602802446065666

[Gass3268]

Vos and Fitzgerald are blaming Evers...

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1090663420616151041

[Gass3268]

Vos and Fitzgerald are blaming Evers...

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1090663420616151041

Yeah, Dems better hope DJT wins re-election...otherwise Evers is 100% a one-termer. Mark my words.  

Your words mean nothing:

Now the Kochs are rushing to support Walker AGAIN to help him win and crash our blue wave. Argh!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/21/kochs-fund-1point8-million-ads-for-wisconsins-walker-ahead-of-midterms.html

Lean -> Likely R at this point unless Marquette shows Evers up in double digits. Wisconsin has always been a Koch-influenced state.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1090978326817226753

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1090969646742847488

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1091003092764626944

[Gass3268]

Bryce has zero institutional support in the state.

[Gass3268]

After changing his mind and deciding to run again, Paul Soglin will probably win a third consecutive term, for a total of 26 years over 3 stints.

[Gass3268]

3 Precincts remaining for the Madison Mayor primary:

Paul R. Soglin (NON)   28.8%   9,948
Satya Rhodes-Conway (NON)   27.6%   9,530
Mo Cheeks (NON)   23.1%   7,972
Raj Shukla (NON)   18.6%   6,410
Nick Hart (NON)   1.0%   359
WRITE-IN (NON)   0.9%   311

Really weak result for Soglin.

[Gass3268]

And it gets worse for Hagedorn, as he loses the endorsement of the Wisconsin Realtors Association and they’re pulling back financial support.  This group has been influential in getting conservative court candidates onto the bench.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-candidate-loses-influential-backer/article_527a3ff6-4d23-5239-96ba-2694c66b11a9.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin%20state%20journal

Wow, really bad for Hagedorn. It is almost a certainty that if the liberals can win this year, they can take the State Supreme Court next year as the election will be on the same day as the Democratic Presidential Primary. 

[Gass3268]

And it gets worse for Hagedorn, as he loses the endorsement of the Wisconsin Realtors Association and they’re pulling back financial support.  This group has been influential in getting conservative court candidates onto the bench.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-candidate-loses-influential-backer/article_527a3ff6-4d23-5239-96ba-2694c66b11a9.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin%20state%20journal

Wow, really bad for Hagedorn. It is almost a certainty that if the liberals can win this year, they can take the State Supreme Court next year as the election will be on the same day as the Democratic Presidential Primary. 

Hence why they REALLY wanted to get that removed as they were terrified of normal people voting that day.

Big reason why the county clerks revolt was huge in stopping it.