Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Xing]

Walker is already trying to redefine Tony Evers by putting out an ad accusing him of not revoking a teacher's license to viewing pornography. I REALLY hope voters do not fall for this lie!

Hopefully we see results like this in November:

Can any Wisconsin poster explain why Republicans turned out so strongly in Forest? The turnout map is eerily similar to the 2012 election map, and while more Republicans turned out in a few other Obama/Trump counties, it seems like they were pretty close, whereas Forest was a blowout. It might not mean anything for November, but it's just interesting in how it stands out compared to the rest of the map. (I realize that Forest swung heavily to Trump in 2016, but it looks like it was even more lopsided on Tuesday.)

[GlobeSoc]

Walker is already trying to redefine Tony Evers by putting out an ad accusing him of not revoking a teacher's license to viewing pornography. I REALLY hope voters do not fall for this lie!

Hopefully we see results like this in November:

Can any Wisconsin poster explain why Republicans turned out so strongly in Forest? The turnout map is eerily similar to the 2012 election map, and while more Republicans turned out in a few other Obama/Trump counties, it seems like they were pretty close, whereas Forest was a blowout. It might not mean anything for November, but it's just interesting in how it stands out compared to the rest of the map. (I realize that Forest swung heavily to Trump in 2016, but it looks like it was even more lopsided on Tuesday.)

there is probably some distortion in the primary results based on which party has more local institutional strength, albeit not nearly as much as a closed primary-this probably results in enhanced polarization in the driftless vs the german descended areas in the primary, even if the final margin is less polarized.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Walker is already trying to redefine Tony Evers by putting out an ad accusing him of not revoking a teacher's license to viewing pornography. I REALLY hope voters do not fall for this lie!

Hopefully we see results like this in November:

I thought for sure Brown, Outagamie, and St. Croix counties would flip.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another ex-Walker cabinet member backs Evers

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[KingSweden]

Another ex-Walker cabinet member backs Evers

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I bet Evers has been sitting on this for a while

[Gass3268]

Another ex-Walker cabinet member backs Evers

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I bet Evers has been sitting on this for a while

There was also a report out today that Walker has been using taxpayer money to fly very short distances (sometimes less than 40 miles). Corruption and misusing of funds could become a key point in the fall. Also its a way to draw similarities to Trump.

Source

[Dr. Arch]

I felt hopeless when I voted for Burke in 2014, since I knew it would come down to luck. This year feels different top down, from candidate quality to potential. I think the seat may flip.

[Virginiá]

I felt hopeless when I voted for Burke in 2014, since I knew it would come down to luck. This year feels different top down, from candidate quality to potential. I think the seat may flip.

And in the midterm before redistricting - the most important midterm there is.

[Gass3268]

Mayor Soglin out directing traffic this morning in Madison's westside after flooding took out power last night:

https://twitter.com/MatthewCashWkow/status/1031907815496015876

[Scottholes 2.0]

Now the Kochs are rushing to support Walker AGAIN to help him win and crash our blue wave. Argh!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/21/kochs-fund-1point8-million-ads-for-wisconsins-walker-ahead-of-midterms.html

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Now the Kochs are rushing to support Walker AGAIN to help him win and crash our blue wave. Argh!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/21/kochs-fund-1point8-million-ads-for-wisconsins-walker-ahead-of-midterms.html

Lean -> Likely R at this point unless Marquette shows Evers up in double digits. Wisconsin has always been a Koch-influenced state.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Now the Kochs are rushing to support Walker AGAIN to help him win and crash our blue wave. Argh!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/21/kochs-fund-1point8-million-ads-for-wisconsins-walker-ahead-of-midterms.html

Lean -> Likely R at this point unless Marquette shows Evers up in double digits. Wisconsin has always been a Koch-influenced state.

I wouldn't go that far, though. It didn't work for Michael Screnock.

[LimoLiberal]

Now the Kochs are rushing to support Walker AGAIN to help him win and crash our blue wave. Argh!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/21/kochs-fund-1point8-million-ads-for-wisconsins-walker-ahead-of-midterms.html

Lean -> Likely R at this point unless Marquette shows Evers up in double digits. Wisconsin has always been a Koch-influenced state.

[Gass3268]

Now the Kochs are rushing to support Walker AGAIN to help him win and crash our blue wave. Argh!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/21/kochs-fund-1point8-million-ads-for-wisconsins-walker-ahead-of-midterms.html

Lean -> Likely R at this point unless Marquette shows Evers up in double digits. Wisconsin has always been a Koch-influenced state.

Lolno, this a pure toss-up contest. Believing it to be leaning in any direction, either way, would be foolish.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I rate this race as a pure tossup as well, but Walker and WI Republicans have raised 7 million dollars thus far in advertising (much more than Evers). I think Walker will become increasingly less vulnerable up until Election Day, but that's just me! I can't wait until tomorrow's Marquette poll!

[IceSpear]

Now the Kochs are rushing to support Walker AGAIN to help him win and crash our blue wave. Argh!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/21/kochs-fund-1point8-million-ads-for-wisconsins-walker-ahead-of-midterms.html

From that article:

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TIL 2012 never happened.

[Xing]

Money isn't everything, as President Hillary Clinton will tell you. And yeah, Senator Thompson, President Romney, and Senator-elect Vukmir can attest to Wisconsin being a Republican state since 2010. Toss-Up makes the most sense for this race as of right now, but of course people's personal feelings about Walker are going to impact their ratings.

[redjohn]

Agreed on this being a tossup race. The interesting part about this race is that it's the first in Wisconsin since 2006 with both the Governor and Senator on the ballot; in 2006, incumbent Dem Senator Kohl won re-election by a landslide (38 pts) while incumbent Dem Governor Doyle won his race by seven points.

Unlike 2006, I severely doubt there will be many Baldwin-Walker voters, and with polls consistently showing Baldwin with healthy leads over Vukmir, I think the race is slowly swaying in Evers's favor. Had Nicholson won the GOP primary, people might've associated the WI Republican ticket with an anti-establishment Trumpist agenda (which would've excited more conservative-leaning voters), but Vukmir screams cold establishment and won't excite voters in the state at all. Republicans will vote for Walker, but with this being his fourth election, there are bound to be many past voters who aren't too excited to vote for him a fourth time.

[libertpaulian]

Agreed on this being a tossup race. The interesting part about this race is that it's the first in Wisconsin since 2006 with both the Governor and Senator on the ballot; in 2006, incumbent Dem Senator Kohl won re-election by a landslide (38 pts) while incumbent Dem Governor Doyle won his race by seven points.

Unlike 2006, I severely doubt there will be many Baldwin-Walker voters, and with polls consistently showing Baldwin with healthy leads over Vukmir, I think the race is slowly swaying in Evers's favor. Had Nicholson won the GOP primary, people might've associated the WI Republican ticket with an anti-establishment Trumpist agenda (which would've excited more conservative-leaning voters), but Vukmir screams cold establishment and won't excite voters in the state at all. Republicans will vote for Walker, but with this being his fourth election, there are bound to be many past voters who aren't too excited to vote for him a fourth time.

How much do you think Baldwin would have to win by to drag Evers over the finish line?  We're talking barely dragging Evers...not by the 5-10 point average that Evers seems to have in these polls.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Agreed on this being a tossup race. The interesting part about this race is that it's the first in Wisconsin since 2006 with both the Governor and Senator on the ballot; in 2006, incumbent Dem Senator Kohl won re-election by a landslide (38 pts) while incumbent Dem Governor Doyle won his race by seven points.

Unlike 2006, I severely doubt there will be many Baldwin-Walker voters, and with polls consistently showing Baldwin with healthy leads over Vukmir, I think the race is slowly swaying in Evers's favor. Had Nicholson won the GOP primary, people might've associated the WI Republican ticket with an anti-establishment Trumpist agenda (which would've excited more conservative-leaning voters), but Vukmir screams cold establishment and won't excite voters in the state at all. Republicans will vote for Walker, but with this being his fourth election, there are bound to be many past voters who aren't too excited to vote for him a fourth time.

You make an extremely valid point, but Wisconsin could very well go the way Michigan did in the 2014 elections and reelect a GOP governor (Rick Snyder) and elect a D senator (Gary Peters) on the same ballot. Again, let's hope not!

[redjohn]

Agreed on this being a tossup race. The interesting part about this race is that it's the first in Wisconsin since 2006 with both the Governor and Senator on the ballot; in 2006, incumbent Dem Senator Kohl won re-election by a landslide (38 pts) while incumbent Dem Governor Doyle won his race by seven points.

Unlike 2006, I severely doubt there will be many Baldwin-Walker voters, and with polls consistently showing Baldwin with healthy leads over Vukmir, I think the race is slowly swaying in Evers's favor. Had Nicholson won the GOP primary, people might've associated the WI Republican ticket with an anti-establishment Trumpist agenda (which would've excited more conservative-leaning voters), but Vukmir screams cold establishment and won't excite voters in the state at all. Republicans will vote for Walker, but with this being his fourth election, there are bound to be many past voters who aren't too excited to vote for him a fourth time.

How much do you think Baldwin would have to win by to drag Evers over the finish line?  We're talking barely dragging Evers...not by the 5-10 point average that Evers seems to have in these polls.

My guess is a greater than five-point win for Baldwin makes it very likely that Evers also wins. Unless Vukmir or Evers have a terrible, campaign-jolting scandal revealed, it's hard to imagine Baldwin winning by over five points while simultaneously seeing Walker win re-election.

Also, there won't be any third party candidates in the Senate election, making the Baldwin-Evers correlation even stronger.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Agreed on this being a tossup race. The interesting part about this race is that it's the first in Wisconsin since 2006 with both the Governor and Senator on the ballot; in 2006, incumbent Dem Senator Kohl won re-election by a landslide (38 pts) while incumbent Dem Governor Doyle won his race by seven points.

Unlike 2006, I severely doubt there will be many Baldwin-Walker voters, and with polls consistently showing Baldwin with healthy leads over Vukmir, I think the race is slowly swaying in Evers's favor. Had Nicholson won the GOP primary, people might've associated the WI Republican ticket with an anti-establishment Trumpist agenda (which would've excited more conservative-leaning voters), but Vukmir screams cold establishment and won't excite voters in the state at all. Republicans will vote for Walker, but with this being his fourth election, there are bound to be many past voters who aren't too excited to vote for him a fourth time.

How much do you think Baldwin would have to win by to drag Evers over the finish line?  We're talking barely dragging Evers...not by the 5-10 point average that Evers seems to have in these polls.

My guess is a greater than five-point win for Baldwin makes it very likely that Evers also wins. Unless Vukmir or Evers have a terrible, campaign-jolting scandal revealed, it's hard to imagine Baldwin winning by over five points while simultaneously seeing Walker win re-election.

Also, there won't be any third party candidates in the Senate election, making the Baldwin-Evers correlation even stronger.

Very true.

[junior chįmp]

A very credible source called my office today to inform me that the Marquette poll will show Evers leading

[Nhoj]

Walker is already trying to redefine Tony Evers by putting out an ad accusing him of not revoking a teacher's license to viewing pornography. I REALLY hope voters do not fall for this lie!

Hopefully we see results like this in November:

Can any Wisconsin poster explain why Republicans turned out so strongly in Forest? The turnout map is eerily similar to the 2012 election map, and while more Republicans turned out in a few other Obama/Trump counties, it seems like they were pretty close, whereas Forest was a blowout. It might not mean anything for November, but it's just interesting in how it stands out compared to the rest of the map. (I realize that Forest swung heavily to Trump in 2016, but it looks like it was even more lopsided on Tuesday.)

there is probably some distortion in the primary results based on which party has more local institutional strength, albeit not nearly as much as a closed primary-this probably results in enhanced polarization in the driftless vs the german descended areas in the primary, even if the final margin is less polarized.

Pretty sure a lot of it is explained by contested local races. Dunn which usually would be blue had had sheriff races that were contested with multiple people. I assume the republican side drew more interest. On the other hand I cant explain Barron, all local races were uncontested though the Sheriff is a democrat.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A very credible source called my office today to inform me that the Marquette poll will show Evers leading

Was it John Barron?