Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Gass3268]

The NBC article has Republicans up 52-43 in GA where there is no party registration... And 53-43 in TX and EV just started TODAY there. What is TargetSmart and why is the media citing them?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1054425836693143552

[Gass3268]

The numbers in Arizona are brutal -
http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics

Republican landslide in Maricopa county, 117,000 to 75,000.

As others have pointed out, these numbers are worthless unless you include how they compare to previous years.

Overall AZ is currently 44.7 R - 32.4 D - 22.4 U. I don't have daily numbers, but the final 2016 distribution appears to be 40 R - 34 D - 25 U while 2012 was 43.1 R - 32.5 D - 24.3 U.

Thanks for this! I know the Dems are currently behind, but they appear to be closing a bit. Also for anyone to win statewide they are gonna need to convert registered Republicans.

[Gass3268]

Should note that Democrats had a pretty decent early vote margin in Texas during the primary and then 500K more Republicans showed up on election day.

[Gass3268]

Good to see Democrats overperforming in Florida.

[Gass3268]

The Democrats are in some profound Trouble in Arizona...

Here are the latest Figures

Overall
R 227,653
D 164,738
I 113,464

510K Votes have been cast in AZ

Maricopa
R 154,773 / D 100,675 / I 73,520

Pima
D 40,874 / R 34,960 / I 21,465

Not sure how Data Orbital comes up with Sinema + 7 lead.

Registered Republicans are allowed to vote for Sinema just like they did for Tipirneni in AZ-06. Republicans were up by 20, ended up only winning by 5.

[Gass3268]

Okay Dean is going to win. Rural areas are on fire and Dems are not counter punching

Should just stop the voting right now and call it.

[Gass3268]

Republicans always have an edge in mail in ballots in Nevada, so this is not exactly news. Ralston always scaremongers about the NV early vote, all the way through. Democrats are performing exactly where they need to be to win.

First weekend - Democrats are turning out in droves!
First week - Not looking good for Democrats!
Second weekend - Huge surge for Democrats!
Second week - Republicans are making a comeback!
Third weekend - Democrats have probably won.

[Gass3268]

In Clark County, the Dem returns are about 27% over Rep returns so far, whereas in 2016 they were 53% over Rep returns. This indicates good news for Republicans in Nevada. But again, keep calling me a troll for summarizing the data.

Wow! Dominating compared to the last midterms!

[Gass3268]

In Clark County, the Dem returns are about 27% over Rep returns so far, whereas in 2016 they were 53% over Rep returns. This indicates good news for Republicans in Nevada. But again, keep calling me a troll for summarizing the data.

Wow! Dominating compared to the last midterms!

You mean the one where Sandoval won by 47%? Sure, Wacky Jacky will outperform Bob Goodman.

In his blog, Ralston posted "—Comparisons to 2016 are not apt, people. It’s 2014 or maybe 2010, as you can see in my initial post."

[Gass3268]

Nevada Dems lead is at 11k now. Hillary only won by 20k votes in 2016, so that seems pretty good right now assuming Indies also break for Dems.

What are you talking about?

We have to remember that Hillary only won by 20k votes. So an EV lead right now for Dems of 11k without indies is not bad if that stays throughout the entirety of EV, assuming Indies also break for Dems, which according to most polling, looks likely this year.

Ralston said in his morning blog post that the Clark County Dem Firewall keeps building. Up to 10,000 now. Said that Democrats would like for it to get to 40,000. This weekend will be key. Also he said that the Washoe numbers should worry Republicans, but they are doing very well in the rurals.

[Gass3268]

Other than Texas (because it's so big), people need to stop comparing turnout this year to 2016. That's comparing apples to oranges.

[Gass3268]

2. I can't calculate that exactly, but I know that Democrats had a 75K lead in Clark in 2016, and a 25K lead in 2010.

...that's at the end of early voting, right? If they had a 25K lead AT THIS POINT in 2010 then we're royally screwed.

Pretty sure he means end of the early vote cycle.

[Gass3268]

Democrats did better in today's update in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1055177381441224704

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1055177752565866496

[Gass3268]

Also here's Steve Schale on Florida:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1055171328368631808

[Gass3268]

Republicans padding their lead in Arizona...was 62K over Democrats yesterday, now it's 76K

Overall
Republicans 291,509
Democrats 214,656
Independents 147,416

Difference: 76,853

Maricopa
Republicans 199,178
Democrats 133,020
Independents 96,227

Difference: 66,158

Pima
Republicans 43,199
Democrats 51,953
Independents 27,212

Difference: 8,754

Overall 657,148 Votes have been cast in AZ.

Even though their % lead dropped.

[Gass3268]

Old retired Democrats are pissed off!

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1055184595874910216

[Gass3268]

Democrats have caught up to where they were on this day in Iowa in 2014, even with 10 days of early voting removed by the Republican legislature. Republicans are still behind.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1055187849354625030

[Gass3268]

Why are we comparing EV numbers to 2014 rather than 2006 or 2002? Is it just a question of available data?

I've seen this multiple times now. No one is actually expecting Republicans to get close to 2014 numbers. Seems like a lot of lowering of expectations going on in the Democratic cheer squad.

Way too many population changes in the middle of the last decade.

[Gass3268]

Would love to see how this compares to 2014:

https://twitter.com/KansasSOS/status/1055222806282227712

[Gass3268]

Dems won Washoe for the 5th straight day. Only by 85 votes, but I don't remember them consistently winning this county the last couple cycles.

[Gass3268]

Dems won Washoe for the 5th straight day. Only by 85 votes, but I don't remember them consistently winning this county the last couple cycles.

This has been the biggest bright spot for Rosen so far

They seem to be making good constant additions to their lead in Clark each day, but this weekend (like always) will be key.

[Gass3268]

Is Clark just waiting to vote or something? I just find it odd that the GOP are the ones that are suddenly turning out in NV instead of Dems.

They are adding about a 2,000 vote lead every day. If that holds up, it will add up. Also weekends and week two need to be bigger, as so Ralston says.

[Gass3268]

As long as Democrats keep adding about 2,000 to their lead in Clark each day I'll be happy. Also I imagine this next weekend is going to be big.

[Gass3268]

Florida:

Republicans:  748,091 (42.7%)
Democrats:  694,923 (39.7%)
NPA/Minor: 308,461 (17.6%)
Totals: 1,751,451

As of this morning, Republicans lead by 53,168 (+3.03%, was 8.8% in 2014).

Yesterday, we were at 1,448.251, with the GOP holding an edge of 52,850 votes (+3.65%).

The day was pretty much a push.  Republicans narrowly one the in-person early voting, while Democrats won the VBM return.

Steve Schale blog

[Gass3268]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

Then why are Democrats more confident and Republicans not?

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1055453434286166016