Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1054558729935323136

Democrats win Washoe by a sizeable margin again. High numbers of votes as well.

Not quite as gaudy as the double digit leads from the first two days, but still D+7. These Washoe numbers are making it very difficult to see Heller winning, even if Clark isn't doing quite as well as expected.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1054558729935323136

Democrats win Washoe by a sizeable margin again. High numbers of votes as well.

That's a 7 point win, a little less than before, but an additional 600 votes to the D margin.

[The Vorlon]

[Triplicate link deleted - please read the thread guys.]

[Ebsy]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881

Please read the thread before posting.

[henster]

Anybody know what's up with Cuyahoga I read the EV is not even reaching '14 levels there.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881

The guy who runs TargetSmart just slammed NBC on twitter for misinterpreting his data.

[Ebsy]

Anybody know what's up with Cuyahoga I read the EV is not even reaching '14 levels there.

Ohio party registration isn't particularly useful, but you read incorrectly, as it is currently up 14% over 2014.

The big jump is in unaffiliateds, which due to the 2015 law that changed a bunch of partisan affiliated voters to unaffiliated if they did not vote in the past 4 years, meaning that direct comparisons are not exactly accurate.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here's a round up on final #s for 1st day early voting in many/most of the major big metro counties in TX. Across all these counties, they basically either came very close to 2016 turnout, or even BEAT it:

Austin/Travis County - They beat the 2016 Presidential election... in a midterm...

2018: 47,405
2016: 47,109
2014: 17,181



Houston/Harris County

2018: 63,188
2016: 67,471
2014: 20,215


Dallas/Dallas County

2018: 57,080
2016: 58,775
2014: 13,036




San Antonio/Bexar County

2018: 34,021
2016: 35,431
2014: 13,436




Fort Worth/Tarrant County

2018: 38,430* (apparently unofficial, might increase)
2016: 43,140
2014: 13,466


North Dallas-Fort Worth Suburbs/Denton County - another NUT...

2018: 17,278
2016: 16,963
2014: 5,372







North Austin Suburbs/Williamson County - another NUT...

2018: 20,711
2016: 18,103
2014: 4,267

[Ebsy]

The Williamson County number is key.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

And as soon as I posted that, we get the BIG news.

South Texas/Hidalgo County

2018: 19,652 --- BEATS 2016 PRESIDENTIAL TURNOUT... IN HIDALGO COUNTY (92% HISPANIC)
2016: 18,526
2014: 9,930


THE HISPANICS ARE VOTING OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG!!!


THE HISPANICS ARE VOTING OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG!!!

[ON Progressive]

And as soon as I posted that, we get the BIG news.

South Texas/Hidalgo County

2018: 19,652 --- BEATS 2016 PRESIDENTIAL TURNOUT... IN HIDALGO COUNTY (92% HISPANIC)
2016: 18,526
2014: 9,930

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, chill a bit, don't extrapolate too much, but this is nice to see.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

And as soon as I posted that, we get the BIG news.

South Texas/Hidalgo County

2018: 19,652 --- BEATS 2016 PRESIDENTIAL TURNOUT... IN HIDALGO COUNTY (92% HISPANIC)
2016: 18,526
2014: 9,930

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

As a precautionary measure, I am changing my username. If this first day of voting is not just a blip and Hispanics actually vote at Presidential + levels, things could get interesting.

Reportedly there was very high turnout in El Paso too (also obviously overwhelmingly Hispanic and Beto's home turf), not sure of the exact numbers but maybe I'll try to check for them now.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

OK, for El Paso I don't have an exact #, but a news article says "more than 15,000" and that it is higher than 2016.

https://www.kvia.com/news/texas/early-voting-in-texas-begins-with-lines-strong-turnout/818526327

You must be logged in to read this quote.

El Paso/El Paso County

2018: Unknown HIGHER than 16,117
2016: 16,117
2014: 2,817


So it is more than 5 times 2014 levels...

So yeah, looks like Hispanics are indeed voting (so far), to a MUCH greater extent than I would have expected based on historical turnout.

Truly crazy.

[RI]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881

The guy who runs TargetSmart just slammed NBC on twitter for misinterpreting his data.

Dem voter file firm slams story unfavorable to Dems.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

OK, for El Paso I don't have an exact #, but a news article says "more than 15,000" and that it is higher than 2016.

https://www.kvia.com/news/texas/early-voting-in-texas-begins-with-lines-strong-turnout/818526327

You must be logged in to read this quote.

El Paso/El Paso County

2018: Unknown HIGHER than 16,117
2016: 16,117
2014: 2,817


So it is more than 5 times 2014 levels...

So yeah, looks like Hispanics are indeed voting (so far), to a MUCH greater extent than I would have expected based on historical turnout.

Truly crazy.

So it looks like that last-minute surge in enthusiasm amongst Latinos (according to NBC) is coming true. Bodes very well for the Democrats.

[Xing]

These numbers in Texas do look pretty insane, but I'd be curious to see what more rural counties look like. If turnout is extremely high in ruby red Republican territory as well, that doesn't bode nearly as well for Beto.

Some rural counties in Nevada are reporting, and turnout seems higher than Saturday, like in Washoe. Republicans were able to cut into the Democrat margin a bit as a result. While Clark will likely more than offset that, it does present a possible problem for Democrats: High Republican turnout could limit the impact of high Democratic turnout.

[junior chįmp]

Praying for Beto

[Ebsy]

As pointed out by a helpful posted on AAD, you made an error with the Hidalgo county numbers. You seem to be counting in person and by mail for 2018 but only in person for 2016.

[Gass3268]

Should note that Democrats had a pretty decent early vote margin in Texas during the primary and then 500K more Republicans showed up on election day.

[ON Progressive]

Should note that Democrats had a pretty decent early vote margin in Texas during the primary and then 500K more Republicans showed up on election day.

They actually lost the early vote in the Texas primary though. The problem was that the Texas SoS only publishes the top 15 counties in population, which are way more Democratic than the state as a whole.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

As pointed out by a helpful posted on AAD, you made an error with the Hidalgo county numbers. You seem to be counting in person and by mail for 2018 but only in person for 2016.

The Hidalgo #s come from here:

https://twitter.com/RamiroGarzaTX/status/1054545179489853440

It is not entirely clear, but it sounds like he is saying the 2018 #s are in person only because he says "for day one"? If it were also including absentee mail ballots, then it wouldn't be just for day one - early voting by mail has been going on for days before this.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Praying for Beto

You're beto off praying for Joe Donnelly, Claire McCaskill, Bill Nelson, and Kyrsten Sinema.

LOL

[DataGuy]

These numbers in Texas do look pretty insane, but I'd be curious to see what more rural counties look like. If turnout is extremely high in ruby red Republican territory as well, that doesn't bode nearly as well for Beto.

Some rural counties in Nevada are reporting, and turnout seems higher than Saturday, like in Washoe. Republicans were able to cut into the Democrat margin a bit as a result. While Clark will likely more than offset that, it does present a possible problem for Democrats: High Republican turnout could limit the impact of high Democratic turnout.

To your comment on Texas, turnout was in fact record-shattering even in small, deeply Republican counties. From the Texas Tribune:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/22/texas-early-voting-turnout/

That's a percentage increase of 369% over 2014. (Midland County voted for Trump 75% to 20% in 2016.) By comparison, first-day turnout increased by almost 90% in Dallas County and by 176% in Travis County.

Both Dallas County and Travis County do of course have far more raw votes than Midland, but if smaller Republican counties across the board also see such astonishing spikes in turnout, it could negate any benefit for the Democrats.

[Ebsy]

The real question is, what was Midland County's early vote on the first day of early voting in 2016? I think we all can agree that 2014 is not the greatest benchmark for this election.