CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Gass3268]

Wow, Josh Newman losing his recall vote by 24 points. In a district Clinton won handily.

I've seen some reporting on the ground that even Democrats there weren't happy with him.

[Gass3268]

This is annoying:

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1004201360554889217

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1004208116064571392

[Gass3268]

Democrats in Iowa are a little excited!

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1004211445238829056

[Gass3268]

Democrats are also excited in New Mexico!

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1004211886060113920

[Gass3268]

I know it's still a bit early to say this

Should've stopped there.

By the way, even after "100% is in" on the NYT, votes are going to continue flooding in over the next few weeks. Margins can and will change drastically.

There is some reporting that 0% of LA County might report tonight do to the voter roll issues. There is some efforts to reopen the polls tomorrow.

[Gass3268]

I know it's still a bit early to say this

Should've stopped there.

By the way, even after "100% is in" on the NYT, votes are going to continue flooding in over the next few weeks. Margins can and will change drastically.

There is some reporting that 0% of LA County might report tonight do to the voter roll issues. There is some efforts to reopen the polls tomorrow.

NVM some of LA County is coming in now.

[Gass3268]

Going to bed. No use staying up. It's gonna take weeks to figure this out.

[Gass3268]

Woah, Montana!

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1004213519036887040

Proof that this board is full on hack: looking at primary turnout (that they mocked trump for bragging about in past instances) as if it predicts jack....while ignoring outright data that shows republican incumbents are all over SOCAL improving on their 2016 margins.

Something has got to be done about the cheer-leading in primary results threads. We have idiots on here claiming montana and iowa are blue because of fricking primary turnout.

We won't know this exactly for weeks!

[Gass3268]

Something wrong just happened in San Diego County, lol

[Gass3268]

DiFi also in six figures in San Diego County, but at 100,000 votes.

They accidentally put a 5 in front of the 76,256 he actually has.

[Gass3268]

Looks like we escaped the lock outs well, but even if we get candidates in these potential pick up seats, the gop is still leading well in primary turnout for these districts and breaching 50% in like all of them. This is very bad and should not be happening. Not good at all...

THERE ARE THOUSANDS (MAYBE MILLIONS) OF VOTES LEFT TO COUNT!!!

[Gass3268]

Looks like we escaped the lock outs well, but even if we get candidates in these potential pick up seats, the gop is still leading well in primary turnout for these districts and breaching 50% in like all of them. This is very bad and should not be happening. Not good at all...

THERE ARE THOUSANDS (MAYBE MILLIONS) OF VOTES LEFT TO COUNT!!!

Not maybe millions. There ARE millions.

OK, MILLIONS!!!

[Gass3268]

Tonight, California has changed my mind. I don't think we are winning the house anymore.

(BANGING HEAD AGAINST WALL)

[Gass3268]

Dems only got locked out in CA-8

As of now with there only being a 760 vote difference for 2nd.

[Gass3268]

Yo Bagel23:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1004343944178790400

[Gass3268]

Have I mentioned how good Dave Weigel is?

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1004235736047079425

[Gass3268]

When all the vote counting is over, Democrats might end up with more votes cast in Orange County:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1004353533431468033

[Gass3268]

When all the vote counting is over, Democrats might end up with more votes cast in Orange County:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1004353533431468033

Dem's got more votes in Weak-Trump-voting Morris last night then Reps, I wouldn't be surprised if a similar situation emerges in Clinton-voting OC.

It's happening across the nation. DuPage County (IL), Gwinnett County (GA), Orange County (CA), Morris County (NJ), Chester County (PA), etc. Democrats are rockin' the suburbs, just like Michael Jackson did.

[Gass3268]

To give you an idea of how much of the vote is still out in CA, even with 100% precincts reporting nearly everywhere - there are 188k ballots still to be counted in Orange County.  369k ballots have been counted in Orange County so far.  So that's 1/3 of the total OC vote that will be counted over the coming weeks.

It could even be more than 188K as additional ballots trickle in through Friday.

Right, that number will inch up.  So maybe something like 35% of the vote yet to be counted?  Dang.  Still way too early to examine the total D vs. R numbers in a given district.

Yep, there's still a long way to go. Way too early to analyze and give hot takes on margins, especially since later counted ballots tend to skew D.

But you know the Washington Post had to come in with a hot take of #bluewave dead.

[Gass3268]

Does anyone remember what time we should know the remaining number ballots per county?

[Gass3268]

Correct and potentially devastating take -->

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/no-democrats-haven-t-shown-they-re-going-win-house-n880516

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I now view the chance of a Democratic flip of the House as less than 30% in my mind. Absolutely no sign that they are replicating Clinton numbers in wealthy, minority heavy, suburban districts that they need to flip.

Another embarrassing #hottake. There are still millions of left leaning votes left to be counted. 

[Gass3268]

Correct and potentially devastating take -->

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/no-democrats-haven-t-shown-they-re-going-win-house-n880516

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I now view the chance of a Democratic flip of the House as less than 30% in my mind. Absolutely no sign that they are replicating Clinton numbers in wealthy, minority heavy, suburban districts that they need to flip.

Another embarrassing #hottake. There are still millions of left leaning votes left to be counted. 

What is with these "pundits" and their knee-jerk reactions to results?

They got to get their takes in while people care. No one is going to care in month when all the votes have been counted.

[Gass3268]

Are we expecting to have a substantial additional amount of votes counted in California today? Or do we have to wait a few days for additional results?

There is an OC update by 5PM PT (8PM ET), not sure about others.

[Gass3268]

Are we expecting to have a substantial additional amount of votes counted in California today? Or do we have to wait a few days for additional results?

There is an OC update by 5PM PT (8PM ET), not sure about others.

New update coming in 2 minutes (OC at least).