2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1039862311207485440

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1039862978475118594

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1039863617057972224

[Gass3268]

Republicans only have a 2 point advantage now in Orange County, only 16% of new registrants since June have been Republicans.

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1040301230407540738

[Gass3268]

Updated Master Google Sheet

All of ratings should be up to date (let me know if they are not). I also added Politico.

[Gass3268]

There were new Inside Elections ans DKE ratings yesterday too.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1042532596603863041?s=21

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1044655807793639424

What's up with VA-10?

Comstock must have dirt on someone.

[Gass3268]

All the while the DCCC is moving into PA-16:

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1044615856460894219

[Gass3268]

All the while the DCCC is moving into PA-16:

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1044615856460894219

How competitive is this district this cycle? DK backported the new district presidential results to their congressional list, and evidently Romney only won PA-16 by around 5 points. Given how Democrats have been able to make up a lot of ground lost between 2012-2016 (depending on the region), it may not be an unreasonable reach target, even if it did go for Trump by 20 points.

Agreed, It probably doesn't get the publicitiy because neither than Democratic or Republican are that flashy.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1044655807793639424

What's up with VA-10?

Comstock must have dirt on someone.

Yeah, the only rational reason why Republicans would be spending so much on ads in VA-10 is if Comstock has some major opposition research on Wexler scheduled for release in late October. That, or the Washington GOP establishment, most of whom live in NoVa, are waaaaay too emotionally invested in VA-10.

I meant it more of her having dirt on Ryan or some other big time Republican.

[Gass3268]

But Muh Weak Wallace!!!

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044951715777314816

[Gass3268]

Inside Elections just made a ton of moves:

CA-10: Toss Up
CA-25: Toss Up
CA-45: Toss Up
CA-48: Tilts Dem
CA-49: Lean Dem
CO-06: Tilts Dem
IA-01: Leans Dem
IL-06: Tilts Dem
KS-02: Toss Up
KS-03: Tilts Dem
ME-02: Toss Up
MI-08: Toss Up
MN-02: Tilts Dem
MN-03: Tilts Dem
NJ-03: Tilts Dem
NY-19: Tilts Dem
NY-22: Tilts Dem
NC-02: Tilts Rep
NC-13: Tilts Rep
PA-01: Toss Up
PA-07: Leans Dem
PA-10: Leans Rep
VA-02: Tilts Rep
VA-07: Toss Up

Source

[Gass3268]

I guess everyone doesn't want to be like Mike.

[Gass3268]

Kevin Yoder (KS-3) triaged and left for dead by NRCC.

$1m being shifted to salvageable seats.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/409149-house-gop-cancels-yoder-ad-buys

At this point I am starting to wish that they would stop triaging and waste more money on unwinnable races. More dumping cash into the Potomac like VA-10, please. Unfortunately all this triaging means they may hold on to some of the bigger reach seats and prevent surprises that otherwise might have been narrowly won. It is pretty clear they are running a Prevent defense at this point.

Hopefully at least the Dems follow suit and don't waste too much on these races where Republicans are pulling out.

I know Dems have started pulling out of VA-10, even if the Republicans still want to waste money there.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1046751943320915968

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/markweinerdc/status/1046765627392880640?s=21

Wut

If candidates are raising that much in races that the national Dem party has largely written off because of "candidate strength," you are going to be saying "Wut" a great many times over the next few days.

Probably, yeah.

Watch Kara Eastman raise $3 million, and TJ Cox raise $10 million

If that happens I will say “nut” instead of “wut”

nutwut?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1046841061019140101

[Gass3268]

Democrat Josh Welle - NJ-04: raised $750K in 3Q

[Gass3268]

Democrat Josh Welle - NJ-04: raised $750K in 3Q

The guy running against Chris Smith? Isn't that a hopeless race? Wow.

Yup, it's a R+8 seat and he got 3/4s of a million.

[Gass3268]

Wasserman, as usual, is full of sh**t.

You can pump a bunch of money into online ads and ground operations.

[Gass3268]

Betsy Dirksen Londrigan, running against GOP Rep. Rodney Davis in #IL13, raises $1.7 million in 3Q.

[Gass3268]

Word is that Sean Casten running in IL-06 raised $2.6 million.

[Gass3268]

Is there like a list somewhere that orders the congressional fundraising from most to least?  It'd be fun to look at how the congressional challengers compare to one another.

DKE will have a spreadsheet once all of the numbers have been reported.

[Gass3268]

Mike Levin (CA-49) and Tom Malinowski (NJ-07) both raised $2.2 million.

[Gass3268]

Kevin Yoder raised $1.1 million for Q3

[Gass3268]

Andrew Janz (D) announces $4.3 million raised against Rep. Devin Nunes (R) in #CA22.