2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Florida Man for Crime]

And this is just McGrath, the amount from the Ds this quarter is gonna be insane!

If it's what you say I love it especially later in the fall.

[Virginiá]

Not quite germane to this thread but I found this in my travels and thought it was worth sharing. It's an open spreadsheet of upcoming debates. It's a work in progress, so if you know of any debates not listed, you should add them:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14uuYs9vSPfqoSVctpNzp1srXwvuKmSOr1VoSIqHuT5g/edit#gid=458231072

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It takes one to know one.

https://twitter.com/AynRandPaulRyan/status/1046228434823786496

This is the kind of loyalty Trump has for the people that voted for him, even if they have disagreements now. He does not care about anybody unless they are blind to him.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It takes one to know one.

https://twitter.com/AynRandPaulRyan/status/1046228434823786496

This is the kind of loyalty Trump has for the people that voted for him, even if they have disagreements now. He does not care about anybody unless they are blind to him.

I doubt Trump could pick Ojeda from a lineup. He was told by his babysitters to attack him and just threw a random list of insults.

[Brittain33]

Kevin Yoder (KS-3) triaged and left for dead by NRCC.

$1m being shifted to salvageable seats.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/409149-house-gop-cancels-yoder-ad-buys

[GeorgiaModerate]

And this is just McGrath, the amount from the Ds this quarter is gonna be insane!

If it's what you say I love it especially later in the fall.

I saw what you did there.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Kevin Yoder (KS-3) triaged and left for dead by NRCC.

$1m being shifted to salvageable seats.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/409149-house-gop-cancels-yoder-ad-buys

At this point I am starting to wish that they would stop triaging and waste more money on unwinnable races. More dumping cash into the Potomac like VA-10, please. Unfortunately all this triaging means they may hold on to some of the bigger reach seats and prevent surprises that otherwise might have been narrowly won. It is pretty clear they are running a Prevent defense at this point.

Hopefully at least the Dems follow suit and don't waste too much on these races where Republicans are pulling out.

[Gass3268]

Kevin Yoder (KS-3) triaged and left for dead by NRCC.

$1m being shifted to salvageable seats.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/409149-house-gop-cancels-yoder-ad-buys

At this point I am starting to wish that they would stop triaging and waste more money on unwinnable races. More dumping cash into the Potomac like VA-10, please. Unfortunately all this triaging means they may hold on to some of the bigger reach seats and prevent surprises that otherwise might have been narrowly won. It is pretty clear they are running a Prevent defense at this point.

Hopefully at least the Dems follow suit and don't waste too much on these races where Republicans are pulling out.

I know Dems have started pulling out of VA-10, even if the Republicans still want to waste money there.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Kevin Yoder (KS-3) triaged and left for dead by NRCC.

$1m being shifted to salvageable seats.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/409149-house-gop-cancels-yoder-ad-buys

I'm having a hard time understanding this strategy.  Triaging people like Comstock and Roothfus makes sense as those will be among the first 10-15 seats to be lost.  The GOP can lose those seats and still retain the majority,

But if seats Yoder's and Bishop's fall, the Dems are winning control 100% of the time.  And winning the majority is what really matters. 

Wouldn't it be better to spread resources among a bunch of doubtful seats if it gives you a 10% chance of retaining the majority (but a much larger chance of 50 seat loss), than a strategy that concentrates on "salvageable" seats but guarantees a 30 seat loss?

[Xing]

Kevin Yoder (KS-3) triaged and left for dead by NRCC.

$1m being shifted to salvageable seats.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/409149-house-gop-cancels-yoder-ad-buys

I'm having a hard time understanding this strategy.  Triaging people like Comstock and Roothfus makes sense as those will be among the first 10-15 seats to be lost.  The GOP can lose those seats and still retain the majority,

But if seats Yoder's and Bishop's fall, the Dems are winning control 100% of the time.  And winning the majority is what really matters. 

Wouldn't it be better to spread resources among a bunch of doubtful seats if it gives you a 10% chance of retaining the majority (but a much larger chance of 50 seat loss), than a strategy that concentrates on "salvageable" seats but guarantees a 30 seat loss?

At this point, I think Republicans are focused on keeping the Senate. It could be that the conversation they're having is about keeping the Democratic majority in the House small, rather than preventing it, which may seem like a lost cause.

[TarHeelDem]

Kevin Yoder (KS-3) triaged and left for dead by NRCC.

$1m being shifted to salvageable seats.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/409149-house-gop-cancels-yoder-ad-buys

I'm having a hard time understanding this strategy.  Triaging people like Comstock and Roothfus makes sense as those will be among the first 10-15 seats to be lost.  The GOP can lose those seats and still retain the majority,

But if seats Yoder's and Bishop's fall, the Dems are winning control 100% of the time.  And winning the majority is what really matters. 

Wouldn't it be better to spread resources among a bunch of doubtful seats if it gives you a 10% chance of retaining the majority (but a much larger chance of 50 seat loss), than a strategy that concentrates on "salvageable" seats but guarantees a 30 seat loss?

At this point, I think Republicans are focused on keeping the Senate. It could be that the conversation they're having is about keeping the Democratic majority in the House small, rather than preventing it, which may seem like a lost cause.

I think this is exactly right.

[Brittain33]

Kevin Yoder (KS-3) triaged and left for dead by NRCC.

$1m being shifted to salvageable seats.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/409149-house-gop-cancels-yoder-ad-buys

I'm having a hard time understanding this strategy.  Triaging people like Comstock and Roothfus makes sense as those will be among the first 10-15 seats to be lost.  The GOP can lose those seats and still retain the majority,

But if seats Yoder's and Bishop's fall, the Dems are winning control 100% of the time.  And winning the majority is what really matters. 

Wouldn't it be better to spread resources among a bunch of doubtful seats if it gives you a 10% chance of retaining the majority (but a much larger chance of 50 seat loss), than a strategy that concentrates on "salvageable" seats but guarantees a 30 seat loss?

At this point, I think Republicans are focused on keeping the Senate. It could be that the conversation they're having is about keeping the Democratic majority in the House small, rather than preventing it, which may seem like a lost cause.

I think this is exactly right.

While this is intuitive, the role of the NRCC is only to support House candidates, so any explanation for their behavior has to do with House-only considerations.

[henster]

For all we know CLF is filling in the holes, they already canceleed elsewhere so they may be moving $$ there. And NRCC is using the money from KS-03 in MI-08.

[IceSpear]

Kevin Yoder (KS-3) triaged and left for dead by NRCC.

$1m being shifted to salvageable seats.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/409149-house-gop-cancels-yoder-ad-buys

I'm having a hard time understanding this strategy.  Triaging people like Comstock and Roothfus makes sense as those will be among the first 10-15 seats to be lost.  The GOP can lose those seats and still retain the majority,

But if seats Yoder's and Bishop's fall, the Dems are winning control 100% of the time.  And winning the majority is what really matters.  

Wouldn't it be better to spread resources among a bunch of doubtful seats if it gives you a 10% chance of retaining the majority (but a much larger chance of 50 seat loss), than a strategy that concentrates on "salvageable" seats but guarantees a 30 seat loss?

It's possible they already see the House as a lost cause this year and are trying to keep the Dem majority as small as possible in order to more easily retake it in 2020.

Also, as was said, the GOP is prioritizing holding the Senate more at this point.

[junior chįmp]

GOP is in big trouble

https://mobile.twitter.com/actblue/status/1046588236167090176

[Florida Man for Crime]

GOP is in big trouble

https://mobile.twitter.com/actblue/status/1046588236167090176

These fundraising reports are going to be completely insane. Senate candidates will be raising money almost like Presidential candidates. House candidates raising like Senate candidates.

From the tweet you posted, sounds like there will probably be at least another 10 million or so on top of this already absurd September total:

https://twitter.com/actblue/status/1046438145611505664

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1046751943320915968

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1046751943320915968

At this point, Im pretty sure the Dems can just throw money at every CD in the country and still have a hefty sum in reserve.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/markweinerdc/status/1046765627392880640?s=21

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/markweinerdc/status/1046765627392880640?s=21

Wut

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/markweinerdc/status/1046765627392880640?s=21

Wut

If candidates are raising that much in races that the national Dem party has largely written off because of "candidate strength," you are going to be saying "Wut" a great many times over the next few days.

[Brittain33]

Remember when people complained about Beto raising $10m from Internet fans in one quarter because he'd dry up funding for viable candidates elsewhere?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Remember when people complained about Beto raising $10m from Internet fans in one quarter because he'd dry up funding for viable candidates elsewhere?

I still believe that he should just redistribute all those funds because he is not going to win barring a metoo issue for Cruz.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Remember when people complained about Beto raising $10m from Internet fans in one quarter because he'd dry up funding for viable candidates elsewhere?

I still believe that he should just redistribute all those funds because he is not going to win barring a metoo issue for Cruz.

Beto O'Rourke is going to buy so many yard signs that he will put a yard sign every 3 feet on the side of every single road in Texas, and it will take a decade to remove them all.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/actblue/status/1046754717890748416

This means they raised $1.8 million in the last half hour. Absurd.