2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Gass3268]

At the same time that Trumps approval has improved by about 4 points, the GCB has stayed relatively flat. 538 has seen the GOP gain about a point while HuffPost Pollster has actually seen the Dems gain about a point. It's hard to compare to RCP as they only use the 5 most recent polls and not the totality of all recent polls like 538 and Pollster does.

[Gass3268]

Benchmark Model released their first House Model which has the dems winning 26 seats https://shareblue.com/benchmark-model-gop-lose-house-midterms/amp/

These models are still pretty meh. PA-17 being Lean R? I'm pretty sure if dems don't win PA-17, they aren't winning 15 house seats. Conor Lamb should be able to win this race easily.

They flat out say in their analysis that they are probably underestimating Lamb.

It's good to see more models! I'll have to add it to my aggregate house model when I have time.

[Gass3268]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/996723092226494465

DCCC Internal: Fitzpatrick 48% Wallace 46%

Looks about right.

Yup, Toss Up.

[Gass3268]

CA-45 (PPP): Porter 46% - Walters 43%

Toss Up

[Gass3268]

Is YouGov doing multiple polls per week now?

[Gass3268]

Bear in mind that most of the tightening in the generic ballot lately has been Rs coming home - in general R numbers are up but D numbers are about the same. This makes sense when you consider that Trump has had a few good weeks, primary season is underway, and Trump has started campaigning a bit. No one ever doubted (well, almost no one doubted) the ability of Rs to get 44-45 percent of the house vote this November. The question is can they get much if any beyond that. If Rs take 46.4-47 percent of the vote it’s hard to see the house as better than a coin flip and it’s virtually impossible to see a senate flip. If they get 44.5 percent then the house flips easily and the senate is a tossup. Obviously it’ll depend where the independents, disaffected Rs, and Obana-Trump voters go to see where in that range are fall.

Ds can be happy as long as they numbers don’t fall below 46-47 percent and R numbers don’t climb beyond 45 in any meaningful average, given how strong independents have broken for them thus far, in my opinion.

+1

[Gass3268]

DCCC Poll in KY-06:

[Gass3268]

BREAKING: Trump tells Republicans voting isnt important in 2018

https://www.twitter.com/gabriellahope_/status/999081930653077504

He just wrote another Democrat ad.

Yup, expect some ratf**king ads with this message in the fall.

[Gass3268]

You can blame the dip in the CGB almost exclusively in Ipsos/Reuters.

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/1000006097787281408

[Gass3268]

This is kind of interesting.  I hadn't realized it's been so long since there was a live interview poll.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1000809842351656960

I feel like this is a significant part of why the GCB has shifted. Lower quality pollsters are dominating this month for some reason.

Bingo. It's all been Reuters, Rasmussen, YouGov, etc. We haven't gotten one from Quinnipac in a long time.

With the rise of cell phones and lower response rates, good quality polling has gotten really expensive and therefore rare.

[Gass3268]

Democrats (and especially Democratic women) are jacked to vote:

[Gass3268]

Democrats (and especially Democratic women) are jacked to vote:

Could you link the question or do you have access to it? Obviously Dems are more enthusiastic but be wary of polls which ask comparative questions like ‘are you MORE enthusiastic to vote this year than in prior years’ vs analytic questions like ‘how enthusiastic are you to vote this year’?

Here you go

[Gass3268]

MTV/AP-NORC Youth Political Pulse Poll:

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Source

[Gass3268]

MTV/AP-NORC Youth Political Pulse Poll:

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Source

Yeah, the “Most Conservative Generation since WWII” theory is dead and buried.

I hardly see how this is the case, to be honest the only rational assumption that can be made from this poll is that this generation is still developing, 22% say they don't even know what party they identify with and identifying with a party does not always mean you can tell how they stand on every issue.

It’s less Republican than the population, according to the poll. I should’ve mentioned the slew of other polls disproving the theory as well.

Every generation is less Republican than the population in their 20s, though. Even the Millennials are becoming less liberal by the year (though it’ll be forty years before they vote for the GOP, making them the most liberal generation relative to age perhaps ever). The fact that the gap is this small surprises me, and leads me to believe that many of the ‘unsure’ youth are actually just going to vote straight Democrat. There’s been a movement on the left to support Democrats but not necessarily to identify as one, and I suspect that’s at play in why these numbers aren’t more lopsided (even if the actual way they vote is).

It's a myth that generations get more conservative or shift to Republicans as they get older. Generations political leanings lock in after voting for the same party after 3 elections. There can be Ebbs and flows, but it doesn't really change.

[Gass3268]

Don't expect live caller polls until June

Tomorrow!?!

[Gass3268]

Echelon Insights: D+7

[Gass3268]

Echelon Insights: D+7

Does this pollster have much of a track record?  I don't see them in 538's database.

They have Trump approval at 39/45 among all adults and 39/48 among RV, so that seems plausible.

It appears to be a rightwing research group. Here is their leadership team:

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[Gass3268]

WA-08 House Majority PAC Poll

Jason Rittereiser 50%
Dino Rossi 47%

https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2018/06/01/26573432/new-poll-shows-a-democrat-beating-dino-rossi-in-race-to-replace-rep-reichert

Trumps approval is at -18%. That plus the eventual negative ads are going to crush Rossi.

[Gass3268]

WA-08 House Majority PAC Poll

Jason Rittereiser 50%
Dino Rossi 47%

https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2018/06/01/26573432/new-poll-shows-a-democrat-beating-dino-rossi-in-race-to-replace-rep-reichert

That's only after people read positive & negative information about every candidate. Rossi is beating Ritt by 9 before that.

This is why PPP's internals are better. They always have the horserace question first before going into the messaging territory.

[Gass3268]

TX-07 DCCC

Culberson (R): 47%
Fletcher (D): 45%

R+7 district won by Clinton


What's funny is the guy who posted it is trying to spin it as if it isn't great news for the Dems. GEM set him straight:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1002635537612791808

What we've seen in a lot of the special elections is 2012 margins in Obama->Trump districts and 2016 margins in Romney->Clinton districts. This fits that.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, Dems almost win an R+13 seat in AZ with a some lady and pick up R+11 PA-18 all in the last three months, but sure, the House is merely a tossup.

There is still a huge number of folks that are undecided and won't be until October at the earliest. What we've seen in every Congressional special election so far and most state special elections is that Democrats are winning over that undecided vote. The undecideds want a check on Trump. That to me is where the disconnect is.

[Gass3268]

PA-01 (Monmouth):

Fitzpatrick 49% - Wallace 42% (RV)
Fitzpatrick 48% - Wallace 47% (LV)
Wallace 48 - Fitzpatrick 47% (LV - Dem Surge)

Source

I really like Monmouth using the different turnout models. Probably a better way to do polling.

[Gass3268]

Thank god. Finally a high quality pollster.

Looks like PA-01 is a tossup with Fitzpatrick slightly favored

I hope Monmouth does a bunch of other polls.

Basically this poll looks like Bucks County.

[Gass3268]

PA-01 (Monmouth):

Fitzpatrick 49% - Wallace 42% (RV)
Fitzpatrick 48% - Wallace 47% (LV)
Wallace 48 - Fitzpatrick 47% (LV - Dem Surge)

Source

Usually the Pub does better rather than worse with LV's versus RV's.  That suggests a malaise problem for the Pubs, or maybe an indicator that the SES profile of Pub voters on average as fallen in the Trump era, or both. 

I'd go with both.

[Gass3268]

Also, I know that MoCo only makes up 80,000 people of this district and the MoE is crazy with this sub-sample, but Wallace dominates there 52-31. Could make up the difference in the end.

Also look at the education differential:

Whites (no degree): Fitzgerald 59-33
Whites (with degree): Wallace 50-43
Non-whites: Wallace 51-32