2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original  (Read 209722 times)
junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #1550 on: May 22, 2018, 05:10:53 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on May 22, 2018, 03:21:33 PM
Anyways, "Sean T at RCP" is on it:



Rofl....looks like clown pundit Sean following the noise again
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #1551 on: May 22, 2018, 05:58:47 PM »
As a general rule I try to trust polling, but the fact that that these good polls for the Republicans are occurring despite no readily-identifiable cause for these shifts makes me more than a bit skeptical that this is anything other than noise.

It does make me nervous though.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #1552 on: May 22, 2018, 06:25:27 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on May 21, 2018, 09:38:16 PM
Quote from: Mondale on May 21, 2018, 09:33:12 PM
Seemed like only 1 month ago they were touting how the tax bill would save their majority. Good night sweet prince

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With the North Korean summit on the brink of collapse, Trump and the GOP have nothing for the Midterms.

here's a scary thought - what if the GOP doesn't need any of that to win.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1553 on: May 22, 2018, 07:02:10 PM »
So I looked at the Reuters cross tabs, it has the GOP winning GRADUATES by 5 points. Throw the entire thing in the trash.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #1554 on: May 22, 2018, 07:26:58 PM »
BREAKING: Trump tells Republicans voting isnt important in 2018
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1555 on: May 22, 2018, 07:30:18 PM »
« Edited: May 22, 2018, 07:33:19 PM by PittsburghSteel »
Quote from: Mondale on May 22, 2018, 07:26:58 PM
BREAKING: Trump tells Republicans voting isnt important in 2018



He just wrote another Democrat ad.
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OneJ
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« Reply #1556 on: May 22, 2018, 07:35:20 PM »
Quote from: Mondale on May 22, 2018, 07:26:58 PM
BREAKING: Trump tells Republicans voting isnt important in 2018




I hope they do exactly what he said too.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1557 on: May 22, 2018, 07:52:34 PM »
DCCC Poll in KY-06:
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1558 on: May 22, 2018, 07:54:34 PM »

But the Daily Caller told me the Blue wave was DEAD!!
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1559 on: May 22, 2018, 07:55:06 PM »
Because of heavy rains in Central KY in November? Tongue
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1560 on: May 22, 2018, 08:13:23 PM »
Quote from: Mondale on May 22, 2018, 07:26:58 PM
BREAKING: Drumpf tells Republicans voting isnt important in 2018



Anyone who thinks that Trump actually cares about the GOP is deluding themselves. If he isn't on the ballot, it's none of his concern. Sure, maybe he'll throw a rally for a few candidates but those aren't to support those candidates, they're for him to talk about himself and play to an easily entertained crowd.
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OneJ
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« Reply #1561 on: May 22, 2018, 08:21:53 PM »

Cheesy
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1562 on: May 22, 2018, 10:11:51 PM »
Quote from: darthpi on May 22, 2018, 05:58:47 PM
As a general rule I try to trust polling, but the fact that that these good polls for the Republicans are occurring despite no readily-identifiable cause for these shifts makes me more than a bit skeptical that this is anything other than noise.

It does make me nervous though.

Nothing wrong with being skeptical but vigilant/concerned.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1563 on: May 22, 2018, 10:42:08 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on May 22, 2018, 07:30:18 PM
Quote from: Mondale on May 22, 2018, 07:26:58 PM
BREAKING: Trump tells Republicans voting isnt important in 2018



He just wrote another Democrat ad.

Yup, expect some ratf**king ads with this message in the fall.
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henster
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« Reply #1564 on: May 22, 2018, 11:16:46 PM »
I'm really annoyed at the media basically ignoring races like VA-GOV, AL-SEN, PA-18, AZ-08 acting like they never happened instead of relying on funky polls for narratives.
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Sestak
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« Reply #1565 on: May 22, 2018, 11:21:32 PM »

*NoVamber.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1566 on: May 23, 2018, 06:09:36 AM »
« Edited: May 23, 2018, 06:22:18 AM by PittsburghSteel »
Politico/Morning Consult-

Democrat: 42% (-1)
Republican: 36% (-2)

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000163-8a20-d9c0-a1f3-feb194ce0001

Crosstabs-

Dems leading amongst Baby Boomers 43-39%
Dems leading amongst Independents 30-25%
Dems leading amongst moderates 45-24%
Dems leading amongst blacks 73-8%
Dems leading amongst Catholics 45-36%
Dems leading amongst Suburban voters 42-38%
Dems leading amongst Generation Z 47-25%

GOP leading amongst whites 41-37%

GOP has a -22 favorable rating, 33%-55%
Dems have a -11 favorable rating, 38%-49%
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Politician
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« Reply #1567 on: May 23, 2018, 06:37:34 AM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on May 23, 2018, 06:09:36 AM
Politico/Morning Consult-

Democrat: 42% (-1)
Republican: 36% (-2)

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000163-8a20-d9c0-a1f3-feb194ce0001

Crosstabs-

Dems leading amongst Baby Boomers 43-39%
Dems leading amongst Independents 30-25%
Dems leading amongst moderates 45-24%
Dems leading amongst blacks 73-8%
Dems leading amongst Catholics 45-36%
Dems leading amongst Suburban voters 42-38%
Dems leading amongst Generation Z 47-25%

GOP leading amongst whites 41-37%

GOP has a -22 favorable rating, 33%-55%
Dems have a -11 favorable rating, 38%-49%
Not bad, D+6 from a Republican pollster.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1568 on: May 23, 2018, 08:35:04 AM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on May 23, 2018, 06:09:36 AM
Politico/Morning Consult-

Democrat: 42% (-1)
Republican: 36% (-2)

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000163-8a20-d9c0-a1f3-feb194ce0001

Crosstabs-

Dems leading amongst Baby Boomers 43-39%
Dems leading amongst Independents 30-25%
Dems leading amongst moderates 45-24%
Dems leading amongst blacks 73-8%
Dems leading amongst Catholics 45-36%
Dems leading amongst Suburban voters 42-38%
Dems leading amongst Generation Z 47-25%

GOP leading amongst whites 41-37%

GOP has a -22 favorable rating, 33%-55%
Dems have a -11 favorable rating, 38%-49%

A shift of +1 is statistical noise, more or less, but it does suggest that all that crazy movement from Reuters may be because of their sampling
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1569 on: May 23, 2018, 12:06:59 PM »
YouGov, May 20-22, 1500 adults including 1263 registered voters

GCB (asked of RV only): D 43 (+1), R 38 (+1)

Trump approval went from -8 to -13 among RV, and from -11 to -12 among all adults, in this poll.
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Greedo punched first
ERM64man
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« Reply #1570 on: May 23, 2018, 12:37:49 PM »
Tulchin Research-CA-39: Cisneros 20, Kim and Huff with 14
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1571 on: May 23, 2018, 01:22:43 PM »

A Cisneros internal, I believe, so grain of salt
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1572 on: May 23, 2018, 01:30:08 PM »
« Edited: May 23, 2018, 01:33:53 PM by PittsburghSteel »
I think we're going to see the Dems rebound in the GCB. Trump's approval rating is showing signs of weakening again.

Btw, Trashmussen released a poll today showing the GCB only +1 for Dems, but I think we all know how seriously we should take them.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #1573 on: May 23, 2018, 01:43:13 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on May 23, 2018, 01:30:08 PM
I think we're going to see the Dems rebound in the GCB. Trump's approval rating is showing signs of weakening again.

Btw, Trashmussen released a poll today showing the GCB only +1 for Dems, but I think we all know how seriously we should take them.

Looks like Rasmussen has a weekly GCB tracker now. So every Wednesday we'll get a new poll from them.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1574 on: May 23, 2018, 03:03:55 PM »


I think this tradeoff would make the Democrats quite happy.
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