Ontario Election 2022

[adma]

I wouldn't jump *too* much to conclusions there (after all, who knows who'll be leading the Libs in '26)--however, the OLP should have known going into this election that given the scale of their '18 defeat, recovery *could* be, at least when it comes to seat numbers, not a single-stage process.  And that even their present apparently favourable polling figures are exceptionally soft.  But of course, if they were assuming that they'd be "obviously" roaring back to a clear and obvious Official Opposition status under Del Duca right *now*--as opposed to a more equivocal '75/77-type result, which'd open up those "anti-Ford coalition government" possibilities but, y'know, is a bit more complicated than the Libs having the upper hand...

What'd probably be most dismaying to the Liberal camp is the likelihood of Horwath's relinquishing her leadership *not* being a knives-out-for-her affair; but a rather civil passing of the baton (to Stiles or whomever else)

Well unlike in the 2015 federal election, there is no major desire for change and Del Duca is no Trudeau.

I think the fact that progressives are counting on "hey mayyyybe Ford doesn't get a majority and we can coalition him out of office" as their main hope while seat projections are showing an increase from 2018 shows that this is not comparable to 2015 federal. I don't think anyone expected Harper to get a majority in 2015. That race was neck-and-neck throughout, this one is not (yet, but I suspect it will stay this way)

Which is why I spoke of coalition presently in more passive-likelihood terms, because it actually seems like that earlier "progressive coalition talk" has subsided--in part because it'd be like wishy-washy campaigning out of both sides of the mouth.  Thus Andrea's playing to win, because she's already got the seat numbers--but the Del Duca Libs are *also* playing to win, because they have the apparent polling numbers.  And I don't think there's been *any* thought of a '75/77 result whatsoever...

[adma]

If the PCs win the most seats, but fail to get a majority, there are two things that I am sure of.

If the Liberals finish second, they will say anything and do anything to get the NDP (and maybe Schreiner) to support Steven Del Duca as Premier in a coalition government.

If the Liberals finish third, they will never, NEVER support a Horwath-led NDP government.

In that light, I'm also wondering whether they're carefully eyeing the present Trudeau/Ford strategic chumminess as a game plan for a future PC minority circumstance.  Cameron/Clegg, Ontario style...

[adma]

If the PCs win the most seats, but fail to get a majority, there are two things that I am sure of.

If the Liberals finish second, they will say anything and do anything to get the NDP (and maybe Schreiner) to support Steven Del Duca as Premier in a coalition government.

If the Liberals finish third, they will never, NEVER support a Horwath-led NDP government.

In that light, I'm also wondering whether they're carefully eyeing the present Trudeau/Ford strategic chumminess as a game plan for a future PC minority circumstance.  Cameron/Clegg, Ontario style...

Lol, you do not want to go into a Cameron/Clegg situation as the Clegg...it's not fun getting Clegged, Lib Dems still haven't recovered.

If the nominally equidistant party of the UK got decimated for coalitioning with the Tories, the traditional anti-Tory party of Ontario will suffer the same fate, if not worse. There are some Brahmin Liberals who would vote Grit no matter what, but most Liberals vote Liberal primarily to keep out the Tories.

Of course, it wouldn't be *precisely* Cameron/Clegg, largely because of the slipperiness of Ontario Liberal ideology.  That is, there's a lot more natural "Ford Nation Liberalism" in the GTA, whereas Thatcherite Lib Dems are more of an alienating oxymoron...

[adma]

I have to disagree with that, because "Ford Nation Liberalism" is not something I see the current Liberal Party supporting. There are significant differences between Ford's moderately conservative populism, and the OLP's technocratic social liberalism. Both can appeal to the same kinds of people (Ford Nation Liberals, as you noted), but that's not a reliable base for either party. The Liberal base leans left, is fundamentally more trusting/supportive of an activist government, more inclined to promote urbanist policies like public transit and high-density zoning, really prioritizes spending more on healthcare and education, etc. I don't think base Liberals would forgive their party coalescing with a party that fundamentally distrusts activist governments, loves to pave highways, not friendly with public-sector unions, etc - unless Ford makes some major concessions, which is very risky on his part when he's already on thin ice with base tories.

You're right insofar as it echoes the trajectory of the federal Justin Liberals, where the Tom Wappel or Paul Steckle element's been expunged (and "borderline" vets like John McKay or Judy Sgro are grandfathered in, but likely wouldn't make modern-day vetting were they still unreservedly their old selves).

Nonetheless, the "more likely to just support vote-by-vote PC rule" prognosis comes closer to the likelihood than an actual Cameron/Clegg deal (which I was admittedly being flippant in labelling as such)--and which is, in the end, not that far removed from the current Justin'n'Doug strategic chumminess.  That is, Doug has *already* been laying the groundwork for "concessions"; because he *knows* Ford Nation is a big tent that includes more than just "base Tories", and indeed a lot of "folks" who supported and continue to support the Justin Libs federally...

[adma]

Remember that if Ford were to lose his majority before we could even get to this vote by vote horse trading the PCs would have to pass a Throne Speech and for that to happen he would need Liberal votes. Considering how the OLP has spent the whole campaign attacking Ford if they were to commit the original sin of supporting Ford throne speech their own members and activists would go berserk

Though when it comes to the prospect of "Clegging", it does illuminate the too-boxed-in-for-pragmatism perils of a "middle" electoral force shifting to the left.  A little like how the Clegg Lib Dems might not have suffered quite the same decimation had they not already pursued a "left of Labour" gambit in the later Blair years...

[adma]

DelDuca using Layton's line was a little odd too, it was such a memorable quote that we all recognized it right away.  Stealing from such a well liked dead man.  Either reference it, "Just as Jack once said.." I would have kind of understood, okay, but to just verbatim steal the line? Also, when Steven repeatedly said "Respectfully" to Andrea about 5-6x times to get her to not engage in debate (and shut her up) really did not look good, either. I was so confused by that, it was a 1 vs 1. debate time , they are supposed to engage in debate.

Anyway,  I think Schreiner did best, the rest didn't do well at all. Not happy with any of the choices, though.

That's the thing with Del Duca, he's not very likeable. Ford and Horwath were no rockstars either, but they're known quantities. But it was important for Del Duca to put on a good face, and I don't think he did.

As is often the case, though, just being there might have benefited him,"good face" or not.  (*How much*, I don't know.)

Conversely, I've seen it voiced that Horwath was strangely de-energized compared to past performances--maybe *she* quietly knows that it's a valedictory effort on her part...

[adma]

DelDuca using Layton's line was a little odd too, it was such a memorable quote that we all recognized it right away.  Stealing from such a well liked dead man.  Either reference it, "Just as Jack once said.." I would have kind of understood, okay, but to just verbatim steal the line? Also, when Steven repeatedly said "Respectfully" to Andrea about 5-6x times to get her to not engage in debate (and shut her up) really did not look good, either. I was so confused by that, it was a 1 vs 1. debate time , they are supposed to engage in debate.

Anyway,  I think Schreiner did best, the rest didn't do well at all. Not happy with any of the choices, though.

That's the thing with Del Duca, he's not very likeable. Ford and Horwath were no rockstars either, but they're known quantities. But it was important for Del Duca to put on a good face, and I don't think he did.

As is often the case, though, just being there might have benefited him,"good face" or not.  (*How much*, I don't know.)

Conversely, I've seen it voiced that Horwath was strangely de-energized compared to past performances--maybe *she* quietly knows that it's a valedictory effort on her part...

It's hard not to be dejected when you're in her position. She probably knows that unless she somehow winds up as premier, this is likely to be her last run. The NDP campaign hasn't quite landed, and mediocre debate performances aside (debates rarely swing elections, unless there's a knockout punch or a major gaffe, which there weren't), Del Duca's running a decent campaign.

And another critical thing (with, yes, an undertone of boy's club sexism as well as vested interests) is that, again, the debate *did* draw attention to Del Duca, regardless of the quality of his performance--and not only that, but the interaction dynamic btw/Ford & Del Duca *seemed* to frame the race in traditional PC/Lib-race comfort-zone terms w/the NDP but a sideshow.  Which for Ford, must be satisfying, knowing that his preferred "primary opposition" is a mediocrity--nothing like a Del Duca to make Ford feel *real* formidable.  And according to that construct, Andrea and her caucus is as useless as the Bloc Quebecois is federally...

[adma]

*Now* a pollster is showing the NDP below the critical 20% threshold, seemingly dented by the Greens' good debate performance.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ford-s-pcs-maintain-lead-ndp-support-slips-survey-1.5909273

[adma]

How much of a problem are New Blue Party and Ontario Party for PC? Namely are they stronger in PC strongholds (which would mean no problem for PC) or are they stronger in marginal districts (which would mean plenty of problems for PC)?

We don't have a ton to go on for polling. Many pollsters are still including them under "Other". I'd use PPC results as a rough proxy. I.e. the right of Tory parties will likely do best in rural southwestern Ontario (safe Tory) and northern Ontario (could potentially cost them Parry Sound-Muskoka and some pickups from the NDP).

Although anger about COVID measures will probably mobilize less people at this point. I think New Blue will do better in traditionally conservative areas in relation to the PPC; i.e, I can see them pulling good results in Haldimand-Norfolk for example, but maybe not as well as the PPC in Timmins or Windsor West

And don't discount the possibility of the dissident-right forces pulling a "promiscuous populist" vote away from the NDP as well--so the net effect might be a wash.  Thus in a riding like Essex, there might be the likelihood of the Tories winning with a reduced share from that which they lost with in '18--but the NDP, Libs, Greens, and dissident-right dividing the rest...

[adma]

*Now* a pollster is showing the NDP below the critical 20% threshold, seemingly dented by the Greens' good debate performance.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ford-s-pcs-maintain-lead-ndp-support-slips-survey-1.5909273

By comparison, Mainstreet today shows the NDP-Lib gap *tightening*, not broadening.

Still, it's worth considering how when it comes to who has the upper hand on the "strategic left", 20% has become something of a man-the-lifeboats "threshold of doom"--it was the case federally with the Iggy Liberals in '11 and the Mulcair Dippers in '15, and provincially with the Wynne Liberals in '18.  And *if* that Nanos number foretells more like it, don't be surprised if there's any number of '18 NDP seats (like, Toronto's "downtown 3") that shift Liberal not out of any strong feelings for Del Duca, but out of a presumption that the old Lib/PC-favouring binary order's "organically" reasserting itself--setting a foundation for '26, IOW.

And again, even if Del Duca was a dud in the debate, it *may* have been successful in conveying an impression of that "natural binary order"--sort of like how Mulroney vs Turner conveyed the same federally in '88, while Ed Broadbent fatally failed to "seize the spotlight" in the same way...

[adma]

CBC Polltracker has the Greens at 12.9% in Northern Ontario, and actually winning Parry Sound - Muskoka.

Wonder what Graydon Smith must be thinking ;-)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGp9eQoiUTc

[adma]

*Now* a pollster is showing the NDP below the critical 20% threshold, seemingly dented by the Greens' good debate performance.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ford-s-pcs-maintain-lead-ndp-support-slips-survey-1.5909273

I think it's pretty clear by now that Nanos' numbers are always underreporting NDP, except in the last week polls...

Even so, it always pays to be alert.

But that said, I'm finding that this NDP sogginess is leading to a lot of overstatement re some kind of "Liberal wave"; because there really *isn't*, from what I can tell, any big trend--in the 905 or 416 or anyplace else--t/w the Del Duca Libs.  The re-Duverger-ization of the Grits, if that's what it is, remains *very* weak-blooded--to the point where even w/a weakened NDP, I'm not even so sure that some of the presently-Tory "gimme seats" such as Eglinton-Lawrence are in the bag for the OLP...

[adma]

The Mainstreet daily tracking has the NDP pulling ahead of the OLP for the first time on popular vote and up 33-13 in seats!

I wonder if people are taking a look at their local campaigns in terms of making up their minds about who to vote for to stop Ford. Incumbency helping out the NDP, not to mention having more money and infrastructure.

I'd also wonder if there's a Covid "sympathy bump" on Andrea's behalf.

Still, at least on generic-hypothetical grounds, I stand by my strategic "concern trolling" over that Nanos sub-20 outlier(?).  But yeah; something like that lukewarm NDP support *and* lukewarm Liberal support doesn't compute--for some reason, it just doesn't feel like a "'87 Peterson landslide" in the cards for Doug, at least on seat-tally grounds.

So if the NDP truly *isn't* rolling over and playing dead and if these are indeed the figures in the works, then the biggest casualty of this election is the diehard establishment-centre-left whose entitlement complex were banking on *any* big wave of strategic accrual within the Del Duca camp--even if it were less about winning this time than about preparing for 2026.  More so than the NDP not getting any closer to government, presumably falling even further back, Andrea's leadership in its presumed twilight, etc...

[adma]

It'd seem like Libs have pulled back ahead of NDP a hair via Mainstreet; but the Tories are still settling downward (now 34%)--maybe they *will* pull a minority situation out of the hat?

[adma]

And while I have referred to the 20% "threshold of doom" for the strategic left, I'm wondering what passing beneath the 35% threshold might mean for seat numbers--all along, there's been an operating assumption that the PCs were headed closer to the 40th than 35th percentile, which'd mean a '18 repeat-if-not-even-better.  (Then again, there's also that "shy Tory" polling tendency--that is, '18 not being as PC/NDP dead-heat as pre-election polling seemed to have it.  But it's hard to tell how willing the New Blue/Ontario Party dissident-right realm is to "return home" come e-day.)

[adma]

The NDP's no better, in light of how Horwath just couldn't step aside 2 years ago when the writing was on the wall because she's too proud to recognize that she'll never win enough of the province over.

But again, was the writing ever that clearly on the wall for *her*?  A lot of the problem might be more with how it's been decreed that the ONDP *at large* is too proud to recognize that they'll never win enough of the province over--*whatever* the leadership.

And the laughing-his-way-to-a-majority circumstance on Doug's part is at least in part through MSM decreeing that a dud like Del Duca is the "real" opposition, whatever the '18 seat totals.

[adma]

The 1990 map is impossible to replicate today.  The "regions" outside Toronto were less important then (905 area code came into existence in early 1990s), pre-sorting of the electorate on metropolitan/nonmetropolitan lines.

Though as alluded to by Brampton, it could be "reconfigurable"; that is, an NDP operating on all cylinders can find a lot of the 1990-elusive outer 416 or Mississauga-type 905 within reach...

[adma]

It also sounds like that sub-20% Nanos NDP figure last week was an outlier.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/doug-ford-widens-lead-in-final-stretch-of-ontario-election-campaign-poll-suggests-1.5916650

[adma]

The NDP's no better, in light of how Horwath just couldn't step aside 2 years ago when the writing was on the wall because she's too proud to recognize that she'll never win enough of the province over.

But again, was the writing ever that clearly on the wall for *her*?  A lot of the problem might be more with how it's been decreed that the ONDP *at large* is too proud to recognize that they'll never win enough of the province over--*whatever* the leadership.

And the laughing-his-way-to-a-majority circumstance on Doug's part is at least in part through MSM decreeing that a dud like Del Duca is the "real" opposition, whatever the '18 seat totals.

I think the writing was on the wall when, in Dec. 2019, polling had the post-budget cut, pre-pandemic Ford government as unpopular as the Wynne government... & it was the then-leaderless OLP with their official party status-less 7 MPPs - one of whom was Wynne, because, again, this was still just 18 months after they were evicted from their unpopular 15 years of power - leading polls instead of the OO! Now, they may fall from OO to 3rd, in their 4th election with Horwath as leader, against Doug the Thug & Steven "Who?" Del Duca, except he's not a nobody because he's just as good a target as Ford, given his baggage from the Wynne years, but sigh. If I were an ONDP member in 2022, I'd be embarrassed beyond belief, not least because it's still a party that literally did prove capable of winning enough of the province over once upon a time.

And that, once again, is where the stacked deck that has *always* plagued the ONDP kicks in--compounded here by the double-decker burden of Doug Ford's patronizing I-won-you-lost manner of governance, and the fact that the MSM has *never* been at ease with the ONDP in OO, preferring to emphasize the negative (i.e. not that they had their best result since 1990 in 2018, but that they blew an opportunity to defeat Doug) and presumptively act as if '18 was nothing more than a "temporary condition".  And also, when you're referring to Dec 2019, that was shortly after the federal election; and for a lot of Ontarians, the federal scene is a reminder of that Lib-default "anti-Conservative" comfort zone, so support for Justin winds up bleeding provincially.  So that it didn't matter whether the actual OLP was a leaderless lame duck; it was still the "Justin party" in many people's minds, whereas as goes the federal NDP, despite his provincial past, Jagmeet was more of an awkward third leg.

By and large, NDPers have been through this before over and over, so a good deal of them are inured against embarrassment--in fact, re the likelihood of their falling from OO to 3rd, whatever the raw vote totals, I suspect the bigger raw embarassment would be in the event that after all the MSM pumping this up as primarily a Ford/Del Duca contest, due to vote distribution the NDP *still* finishes with more seats than the Libs.  "Hey--this wasn't in the script!"

[adma]

New Mainstreet riding poll has Beaches--East York as a statistical tie between the Liberals and...PCs??? All three major parties in the high 20s, but normally you wouldn't even see the PCs crossing 20 in this riding. My guess is it's an outlier, riding polls aren't known to be great in Canada. But if accurate, that's a very surprising one. Beaches--East York is pretty left-wing, and not a "Ford Nation" riding either.

If it were conducted completely N of Taylor/Massey Creek, it might make sense.

[adma]

A sort of Conrad Black endorsement of New Blue--cute


https://nationalpost.com/opinion/conrad-black-doug-fords-leftward-shift-has-created-a-vacuum-for-new-blue-to-fill

[adma]

 And also, when you're referring to Dec 2019, that was shortly after the federal election; and for a lot of Ontarians, the federal scene is a reminder of that Lib-default "anti-Conservative" comfort zone, so support for Justin winds up bleeding provincially.  So that it didn't matter whether the actual OLP was a leaderless lame duck; it was still the "Justin party" in many people's minds, whereas as goes the federal NDP, despite his provincial past, Jagmeet was more of an awkward third leg.

Upon reflection, maybe when it comes to the "ONDP didn't take proper advantage of being in Official Opposition" narrative, the fact that there was virtually no carryover of that dynamic to the federal sphere is an element I've seen few naysayers dwell upon--and remember, Jagmeet was part of the provincial caucus prior to becoming federal leader.  (*Maybe* it would have been different, in a Alexa '97 way, had he run in his Bramptonian home turf rather than in Burnaby.)

[adma]

Yes but keep in mind that it was Layton who led the NDP to OO status and the Mulcair who blew it. In contrast it was Horwath who let the NDP to a great result in 2018

For having worked on that campaign, it's not Mulcair who blew it, but the paid campaign strategists and party employees.

And also, unless there's some *really* big last-minute swoon, it's unlikely that Horwath is going to, uh, "blow it" quite as bad as Mulcair did in '15 (or for that matter, Wynne in '18).  Plus, blaming Mulcair for Jagmeet's failure in '19 is like blaming Audrey on Alexa's failure in '97--and yet I referred to Alexa's Maritime home-turf boomlet in '97, which *nobody* in the aftermath of Audrey could ever have forecast.  So who knows what might have happened had Jagmeet run in his home turf as planned rather than being parachuted out to Burnaby--plus the fact in the first place that the whole post-Mulcair federal Dipper stink and disarray was still in place when Andrea overachieved in '18, and it isn't like there's no symbiosis whatsoever btw/the federal and provincial wings.  And beyond all that, had he not made the jump federally, it was common sentiment that Jagmeet was well placed to be Andrea's successor *provincially*.  That is, *ideally*, one might say, if the provincial Horwath Democrats were truly on a roll after '18, something of that reflected glory ought to have been felt federally, no?  (Never mind that it didn't happen federally in Alberta in '15 despite Rachel Notley.)

So that's my point.  Among all the "Andrea the loser" narrative-mongering out there, the matter of '18 provincially having *no* effect upon '19 (or '21, for that matter) federally is a stone eternally left unturned--yet it's "available" for whomever wants to pursue it...

[adma]

Yes but keep in mind that it was Layton who led the NDP to OO status and the Mulcair who blew it. In contrast it was Horwath who let the NDP to a great result in 2018

Oh, of course, but the point is that the principle is the same: Mulcair, as the leader of the Official Opposition, delivered polling performances as late as the campaign period itself that saw the NDP capable of securing a majority government, & then he blew it; Horwath, in her 3rd go, finally secured the O.O. status, only to see the official party status-deprived OLP rise up back from the dead like a phoenix from the ashes & poll at majority government-levels within 18 months' time because she - for whatever reason(s) - couldn't capitalize on the government's failings. At that point, her blowing it & surviving becomes so baffling as to seem like she has kompromat on literally each & every single member of the ONDP.

(Not to mention, while the 2018 result was obviously great, it was in spite of Horwath, not because of her: they ran their generic progressive platform against a very-unpopular Wynne/the 15-year-old OLP government & the then-widely despised & mistrusted Ford-led PCs. Frankly, had she resigned after 2014 saw the ONDP run on a platform arguably to the right of the OLP, they literally could've been the incumbent government seeking re-election right now, but that's another matter.)

Well, two points here, dovetailing into one another: (1) re the "literally could've been the incumbent government seeking re-election" point, you're assuming that Horwath's hypothetical successor, *any* hypothetical successor would have been any more successful on that front, while totally disregarding what I've referred to before as the eternally stacked deck against the NDP, and (2) you're assuming that Mulcair's polling performances (which were themselves, in practice, kind of "ceilinged" around the third-of-the-vote threshold, due in part to the aforementioned stacked deck which had thwarted previous poll-leaders ranging from Tommy Douglas to Ed Broadbent) *didn't* have their own in-spite-of-the-leader element.  Because TBH, to the electorate at large, Mulcair was (aside from native-son status within QC) a bit of a blank slate going into '15; his primary "advantage" was that he led Official Opposition, and he wasn't Harper.  In fact, one might argue that Mulcair's doom came once the electorate focused *more* upon the leader, and didn't like what they saw--particularly once Justin came into greater relief.

IOW Mulcair *embodied* the "leadership unlikeability" that many seem to want to ascribe to Horwath--it's like in these discussions over what constitutes "good" and/or "winning" NDP leadership, there's some kind of topsy-turvy-land where, I don't know, Mulcair's the ideal because he's more conventionally "statesman-like" in a, I don't know, "Liberal power-broker" way.  And which also, as I've suggested before, reeks of a certain sexism--safe to say that those most prone to overaccentuating Horwath's negatives are almost invariably male, and who can't relate to a certain touchy-feeliness she's always done well.  Between that and the zero-sum overemphasis such critics put upon Winning The Premiership And If You Can't Do That You're A Loser, it strikes me as a bit of a "psephological manosphere" tableau--I don't know, maybe Mulcair and Horwath are the Johnny Depp and Amber Heard of "unlikeable" NDP leaders, and the "unlikeability" one chooses to most dwell upon says the most about the person...

[adma]

adma, I'm done with being dragged around in circles on this topic after this post, & no offense, but most of what you have to say seems meaningless. The point of all of this is that Horwath & her ONDP, after nearly a decade with her at their helm & regardless of external factors, have proven incapable of presenting themselves as the obvious government of Ontario-in-waiting.

Then under the circumstance, name who else could have done what Andrea couldn't.  You present it as if somebody else could have; I'm answering in terms of "it's complicated" due to political cultures both internal and external--in a way, the whole *nature* of the NDP, with rare exceptions (mostly in the Western provinces), is of a sort that's forever in a state of existential dilemma, to the point where once it tastes power real or imminent, the internal psychodrama kicks in.  And I'd suggest that's a *bit* the case w/the ONDP post-2018; which is why they couldn't consolidate on their OO status the way they could have.

And you know something?  "Obvious government in waiting" or no, that's what makes the NDP an eternally *interesting* presence in Ontario and Canadian politics, in a standing-on-the-verge-of-getting-it-on manner.  Win or lose, it's like their peculiar eternality lends and reinforces a certain subtle poetry to Canadian psephology--and if it's "meaningless" to you, then maybe you're just too limited and uninspired in your grasp of electoral politics to channel that poetry.

But that said, they seem to be in an inching-down-a-point-at-a-time phase according to Mainstreet, so maybe going below that 20% Frontier Of Doom come e-day isn't implausible for them...