Alberta Election 2019

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Allan Blakeney also stayed on for the 1986 election after losing in 1981 in Saskatchewan. As did Woodrow Lloyd  who was defeated in 1964.  Of course, these both go back a ways.  The NDP has given multiple opportunities to leaders who lost an election but who were never Premier Gary Doer, (though technically he was Premier for a few weeks, he never accepted the title)

And also BC's Dave Barrett in 1979 and 1983 after being defeated in 1975.

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In fairness actually Notley is probably the best they have so I could see them keeping her but depends on how they do.  If they get say 30 seats, she probably has a strong argument to stay on, but if they drop to only 10 seats it will be a much tougher one. 

Again, Allan Blakeney in Saskatchewan was reduced to 9 seats in 1982 and survived to lead in 1986.

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Joking aside, I suspect his party will go the same way the Trilium Party did in the last Ontario election and BC Conservative party in the last BC election, i.e nowhere.

Or, whatever Jim Pankiw has attempted in Saskatchewan.

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With a name like "Freedom Conservative", I expect them to corner the Proud Boys demo.

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A lot might also depend on whether a minor force like the Alberta Party is poised to reap writ-period rewards from a UCP backlash.

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It probably has something to do with Edmonton being more of a "mature" centre, and in many ways more of a westward cultural carryover from Manitoba and Saskatchewan, politically and demographically; whereas Calgary's development and political culture has tended more t/w "wild west" boomtown unruliness.  (Thus nicknames like "Edmonchuk" and "Redmonton")

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And...it's 50.7% UCP (-1.6 from Jan), 37.8 NDP (+9.3 from Jan), nobody else above 5%.

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-gain-nine-points-since-january-but-ucp-lead/

Pretty nothingburger for a "shocker", unless you subscribed to the conventional wisdom that the NDP was due for a total pummelling because, 2015 aside, anything north of 30% for them in Alta is "unnatural".

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As a Calgarian, the simplest way I can explain it is that Calgarians are big-C Conservative, but when party identity is taken out of the equation, Calgarians tend to vote in a more centrist/progressive way. Our 2 mayors prior to Nenshi, at least, were strongly Liberal

And even Ralph Klein was a Liberal when elected Calgary Mayor (he switched teams when he went provincial)

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The UCP lead over the NDP continues to narrow and the NDP continues to gain ground in Edmonton and Calgary...

What'd be interesting is if the NDP actually surpasses its 2015 Calgary performance (even though it's Kenney's  backyard)

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It all reminds me a bit of Quebec in 1981: the NDP/PQ running on first-term "good governance" that transcends the socialist/separatist stigma, vs a "natural governing party" seeking a united-force comeback as everything else gets sorted into the margins.  (And Claude Ryan's Liberals didn't have anything like UCP's bozo problems)

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EKOS poll for Unifor shows a tightening race, 46% for the UCP and 42% for the NDP

Interestingly enough, the regional results make it seem like the UCP wouldn't get screwed by FPTP. The right and left would run up the score in rural Alberta/Edmonton and split Calgary.

So the final election results are:

NDP: 44
UCP: 42
AP: 1

What are the 44 NDP ridings?

I think you'd have to start with the 20 city of Edmonton ridings and the two Edmonton 'inner' suburbs of St. Albert and Sherwood Park.  That's half way there.  What are the rest?

Both Lethbridge seats, Banff, Grand Prairie, a few rural northernish seats like Fort-Saskatchewan-Vegreville. That would leave 12-14ish seats in Calgary, which seems doable in a popular vote tie.

Maybe salvaging something in Red Deer as well; plus FN-heavy northern seats like Lesser Slave Lake and the Peace River seats; some other Edmonton exurban seats like Leduc-Beaumont, Morinville-St Albert, Spruce Grove-Stony Plain...

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NDP upwards trend continuing, Still got a ways to go, but getting there.

Also, the guy who runs tooclosetocall.ca put up his model a few days back

https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2019/04/the-alberta-2019-model-and-simulator-is.html

Technically an upwards trend relative to previous polls; but when it's a 9-point gap, vs other polls that show something narrower, one wonders whether this'll be yet another case where the left comes temptingly ohsoclose but just couldn't clear that final necessary hump, however much they spin the we-got-the-momentum narrative...

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I think the NDP will likely outperform what they got in Ontario and may even outperform what they got in BC percentage wise, but their biggest problem seems to be the right is united behind the UCP and so uniting progressives unlike most provinces is not enough, they need to pull over some soft Tories which to date they have not been able to do.

Outperforming the ONDP wouldn't be a problem because there isn't a vestigially strong vote-grabbing "middle option" like the Wynne Libs in place  And likewise in BC relative to the Greens.

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Worst case for the NDP is that Rachel Notley will have succeeded in making Alberta another Saskatchewan politically.

Or, for that matter, another BC.  Because I can see the worst-case parallels with 1975 here; that is, ultimately no match for an aggressively united anti-socialist-hordes force, but still maintaining its prime-electable-alternative integrity.

Or to go back to Saskatchewan: the worst case'd likelier be closer to a 1986-style seat-total differential than the 1982-style seat total differential many were predicting because, y'know, Alberta just ain't a "socialistic" kind of province...

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A wider vote differential than many forecast (at this point, about 52-34)--but for the NDP to still manage 25 seats or so on that margin isn't quite a *blowout* blowout, I reckon...

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Turned out to be a snoozer. UCP overperformed and NDP underperformed the polling. I wonder if there was a shy Tory thing going on or if the UCP was just more motivated?

I suspect shy Tory.  And the NDP overperformed in the seats relative to underperforming in the polling.

Though the Alberta Party being shut out at least neutralizes the likelihood of their pole vaulting ahead of the NDP in 2023...

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Any reason why Lethbridge has flipped from the Klein era.  During Klein's reign it was Lethbridge West that went PC while Lethbridge East went Liberal whereas last night Lethbridge East went solidly UCP while Lethbridge West (unless absentee ballots change things) went NDP.  Any reason for this?  Only I can think of is redistribution moved the university into a different riding or is there some other reason for this?

Candidate strength (Ken Nicol for the Libs in the 90s/00s, Shannon Phillips for the NDP presently).  And also remember that the Alberta Libs' "left identity" was somewhat ambiguous in Nicol's time--perhaps more comparable to the Alberta Party presently than the NDP...

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It seems Alberta is the West Virginia equivalent in Canada in terms of the popularity of combatting climate change and general significant right-wing leanings, so the UCP's win should hardly be indicative of Canadian politics as a whole(though Trudeau soiled his personal brand so could very well lose) and is certainly not a reliable indicator of politics in other countries.

Since we're talking about a "have" province vs a "have-not" state, the W Virginia comparison does not quite compute.  Perhaps if the Texas Panhandle were paired off with DFW, you'd have a closer equivalent, economic, political, etc...

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As for Notley running in 2023, I am of two minds.  She suffered a pretty bad defeat and in almost any other province would mean resigning.  It's very rare for a defeated leader to come back and win.  On the other hand the two elections she was leader were NDP's two best showings so real risk the party falls back to its normal single digits with someone else so probably best to stay on for now as the next election is not for another four years so lots of time to see how things unfold and go from there.

In Saskatchewan, Allan Blakeney ran again in 1986 after being reduced to 9 seats in 1982--and actually won the popular vote, though losing in seat count...

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And yeah, it doesn't make sense that the Montgomery neighbourhood is in Bow and not Varsity.

Maybe mild "historical continuity" sense in that Montgomery and Bowness were something like twin Calgary satellites prior to being annexed by Calgary in 1963-4...

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How about a map of Banff, Lake Louise, Canmore, and Jasper.  Those are fairly touristy towns so wouldn't be surprised if they went NDP even though UCP won the ridings.  Sort of akin of Blaine County in Idaho and Teton County in Wyoming and sometimes Summit County in Utah.  All very red states and surrounding areas deeply Republican but those usually vote Democrat for that reason.

Excellent comparison points.