Bob Casey

[TeePee4Prez]

I think Pennsylvania Democrats and liberal Independents and Republicans sacrificed an awful lot of their views out of fear by electing Bob Casey.  In order to win, I hate to admit we played right into the Religious Right's hands.  Anyone in PA who is pro-choice, pro-stem cell, and anti-Iraq War just got shafted this election.  Bob Casey was the better choice to Rick Santorum by far, but we could have nominated Joe Hoeffel and still won by 8-10 points.  I would be very willing to sacrifice Dauphin and Westmoreland counties to see Joe Hoeffel in the Senate right now.  I mean if Missouri can elect Claire McCaskill and Ohio elected the very liberal Sherrod Brown, surely Pennsylvania would have elected Joe Hoeffel.  There was nothing special about Rick Santorum compared to Jim Talent and Mike DeWine, who by the way are much more moderate Senators than Rick Santorum in more conservative states than Pennsylvania. 

I know people like Frodo and Al are having orgasms over Bob Casey getting elected by saying "See... See. you needed Casey to win this seat", but I truly feel we didn't and we will pay the price for this.  Not only on Bob Casey's social views, but quite honestly we elected a dud with a namesake.  How sad!

[TeePee4Prez]

In addition to that Phil, could Hoeffel run up the 60-70% Casey won in Lackwanna and Luzerne Counties? Absolutely not.

Hoeffel would have won Lackawanna with 60% and probably got in the mid 50s in Luzerne.  A sacrifice I would be more than willing to make and Hoeffel would have still won.  Hoeffel would have likely even bettered Casey's margins in the counties around Philadelphia.  Look, the Southeast would have been probably the same lock for Hoeffel even moreso than Casey.  The GOP would have NEVER overcome the Southeast especially when Santorum is unpopular in his home area after Cybergate.  Hoeffel would have won 8-10 and I stand by that.

Try running that fool against Allyson Schwartz in 2010.  I dare you!  

[TeePee4Prez]

In addition to that Phil, could Hoeffel run up the 60-70% Casey won in Lackwanna and Luzerne Counties? Absolutely not.

Hoeffel would have won Lackawanna with 60% and probably got in the mid 50s in Luzerne.  A sacrifice I would be more than willing to make and Hoeffel would have still won.  Hoeffel would have likely even bettered Casey's margins in the counties around Philadelphia.  Look, the Southeast would have been probably the same lock for Hoeffel even moreso than Casey.  The GOP would have NEVER overcome the Southeast especially when Santorum is unpopular in his home area after Cybergate.  Hoeffel would have won 8-10 and I stand by that.

Try running that fool against Allyson Schwartz in 2010.  I dare you! 

What do you base this on?

With a national tide like this, the Dem counties outside the Southeast would probably not vote anymore Republican then they did in prior years.  In Southeastern PA however, you have a socially liberal electorate throughly disgusted with Rick Santorum who would likely vote for Joe Hoeffel with the same or better margins than what Bob Casey got largely because Hoeffel's views are more in line with this area.  That said, I know we could have run Joe Hoeffel and won handily.  Was Bob Casey the "safe bet"?  Sure he was.  I know McCaskill and Brown were more well known statewide in their respective states, but their social views are more to the left of their states than Joe Hoeffel's in PA.  That would have made up for his popularity.  Look, I know it's hindsight, but in that regard I think we sacrificed more than we had to.

[TeePee4Prez]

Hoeffel would have won Lackawanna with 60% and probably got in the mid 50s in Luzerne.

The same Hoeffel that managed to lose Lackawanna by 13pts (quite an achievement for someone with a D next to their name) and who barely broke 40% in Luzerne just two years earlier?

Yes, and the difference was a much more liberal and senior Arlen Specter running on the ticket in a Republican favored year.  Thanks for playing!

[TeePee4Prez]

In addition to that Phil, could Hoeffel run up the 60-70% Casey won in Lackwanna and Luzerne Counties? Absolutely not.

Hoeffel would have won Lackawanna with 60% and probably got in the mid 50s in Luzerne.  A sacrifice I would be more than willing to make and Hoeffel would have still won.  Hoeffel would have likely even bettered Casey's margins in the counties around Philadelphia.  Look, the Southeast would have been probably the same lock for Hoeffel even moreso than Casey.  The GOP would have NEVER overcome the Southeast especially when Santorum is unpopular in his home area after Cybergate.  Hoeffel would have won 8-10 and I stand by that.

Try running that fool against Allyson Schwartz in 2010.  I dare you!  

What else did you want in these counties, Flyers? 62% in Montco wasn't good enough? So you get 65% and then you lose a county or two out west. That hurts.

I don't think it is wise to get that cocky four years before the election. Santorum vs. Schwartz would certainly not be an easy win for the Dems.

You guys are notorious for underestimating her.  Even I did.  Look, from what I hear she can fundraise and knows what she's doing.  I think she scares the crap out of Rick Santorum, et al.  If you think the Democrats have to always run conservative hypenated Catholics statewide, you are sadly mistaken. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Flyers, what you're essentially saying is that are large number of Southeast social liberals saw Santorum vs. Casey on the ballot, and voted Santorum because Casey was too moderate. Somehow, that doesn't compute.

Here are the raw vote totals for the four main suburban counties. Casey/Rendell and Santorum/Swann.

Montco
178,000/208,000
110,000/82,000

288,000/290,000

Bucks
136,000/164,000
96,000/70,000

232,000/234,000

Chesco
94,000/111,000
77,000/59,000

171,000/170,000

Delco
129,000/155,000
80,000/55,000

209,000/210,000

You'll notice a fairly large number of people voting for both Rendell and Santorum. Somehow, I doubt they suddenly switch to Hoeffel.

Actually, you helped my argument here- RENDELL IS PRO-CHOICE, CASEY IS NOT!  I know there had to be some fiscally conservative, socially liberal voters in those areas who voted for Rendell/Santorum.  Makes sense right?  I think a fair number of those voters would have went for Hoeffel instead of Santorum.

[TeePee4Prez]

Um, no pro-choice voter would have voted for Santorum over Casey.

I think there were a few Tweed.  It wasn't just choice- Casey was no different than Santorum on a host of issues.

[TeePee4Prez]

Not really because while Hoeffel would've won, he wouldn't have racked up the landslide and the coattails that took out Hart and Fitzpatrick.

I never looked at it that way.  I think Fitz would have been gone without Casey's help, but I'm not so sure about Hart.  Both are Santorum clones.  Looking at 2010, it would be a good thing for liberal Dems because Allyson Schwartz will be in a strong position and the statewide GOP bench just took an ass raping with Hart and Fitzpatrick gone.   

[TeePee4Prez]

I agree with Flyers on this.  Hoeffel would have defeated santorum, and close to the 8-10 range Flyers predicted.  It obviously would have been closer, but the difference between hoeffel and Casey is not going to make up an 18 point margin, nor it will make up 14 points. 

Doing some math for a minute outside of the Philly metro area (Phill, montco, Delaware, Chester & Bucks) Casey won by 8.8%.  Assuming that with Hoffel on the ticket the Metro Philly area puts up similar #'s as it did with Casey, Santorum would have needed to win the rest of the state by 17 points in order to make for his loses in SEPA..  In 2004 Bush won the rest of the state by just higher than half that 9%.  So in order to beat Hoffel, Santorum would have had to almost DOUBLE the margin outside of SEPA that Bush had 2 years earlier.  Umm no.

I'm even going to say Hoeffel would have done slightly better than Kerry outside SEPA due to the national climate, but ever so slightly.  I'll go as far as to say Cybergate hurt Santorum in Pittsburgh enough to offset some of Bush's gains in that region from 2000 to 2004.  I roughly did the math in my head and came to about 8-10 points for Hoeffel as opposed to Casey's 18 pt victory.  Joe Hoeffel had a solid grassroots effort for the Lt. Governor position, but dropped due to Rendell's wishes.    

[TeePee4Prez]

He doesn't need to go out and convince all the voters, just those who are politically important.  He'll work harder to get party people on his side this time.  He'll also start early and quickly.  Toomey wasn't taken seriously, which is what made him so dangerous (from Specter's POV) in the final couple of weeks.  Plus, he will use the Santorum loss to good effect, making the argument that a dyed-in-the-wool conservative can't win this state anymore.  Trust me, he'll be an easy sell in '10... worst he'll do is 60%

The politically important were already on his side. He doesn't need to work harder with party people since he has most of them in his control.

I understand the anti-Santorum message he'd use but I don't know how much that will do. Conservatives really don't like the man and using an argument like that, while possible politically smart, could really energize the base against him.

We still have some time though. I really hope Toomey or somebody at least runs against him and I think we both can agree that Toomey or probably anyone else will be better than Specter.

Please run Toomey.. NO really Phil, I'm begging you!  All I have to say is US Senator Allyson Schwartz (D-PA, 2011-?)

[TeePee4Prez]

He doesn't need to go out and convince all the voters, just those who are politically important.  He'll work harder to get party people on his side this time.  He'll also start early and quickly.  Toomey wasn't taken seriously, which is what made him so dangerous (from Specter's POV) in the final couple of weeks.  Plus, he will use the Santorum loss to good effect, making the argument that a dyed-in-the-wool conservative can't win this state anymore.  Trust me, he'll be an easy sell in '10... worst he'll do is 60%

The politically important were already on his side. He doesn't need to work harder with party people since he has most of them in his control.

I understand the anti-Santorum message he'd use but I don't know how much that will do. Conservatives really don't like the man and using an argument like that, while possible politically smart, could really energize the base against him.

We still have some time though. I really hope Toomey or somebody at least runs against him and I think we both can agree that Toomey or probably anyone else will be better than Specter.

Please run Toomey.. NO really Phil, I'm begging you!  All I have to say is US Senator Allyson Schwartz (D-PA, 2011-?)

Your immaturity and insanely arrogant behavior is exactly why we get into brawls here. You are getting way too confident about Schwartz with the whole "Oh my God! Schwartz (2011-The second coming of Christ)! She's my girrrrrl!"

And you are about Toomey.

[TeePee4Prez]

We could have nominated Mayor Street and got this seat.

Oh...oh wow. You do realize that even Flyers would agree that Santorum would easily win, right?

That was a joke but we could have nominated any of the congressmen/women (not from Philadelphia) and won.

Schwartz could have won, but not Brady or Fattah.  Do you mean Phila. proper or Phila. area?  Brady's lack of education would kill him in the suburbs and Fattah.. well, let's just say he's like street.