Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[DL]

What are the chances that Kast would agree to any of these "demands" from Sichel?

[DL]

Data Influyes:

Boric 47
Kast 34

This pollster has a pro-left house effect but I think the overall picture is fairly clear.

Isn't the "rightwing well" in Chile already poisoned by the extreme unpopularity of Pinera?

Post election polls have shown Boric with anything between a 4 and 16 point lead. Even if it's closer to the 4 than the 16 he's pretty obviously a favorite. I wonder if Bolsenaro hadn't so badly poisoned the well of the right wing Kast wouldn't be more competitive. Different countries, of course, but it's interesting having the new boogeyman in town is a  right winger.

[DL]

Not really. Overall the left-wing support in Chile has always had the shape of an inverted U, being stronger with the middle class. While in cities there is a more linear relationship, poor rural zones are overwhelmingly right-wing, except for the North (In this election you can still see that in Coquimbo and Aconcagua). Hell, analysis of the left support in the 60's and 70's showed that even back then they did better with the more educated working class and that one of their worst groups was actually extremely poor and marginal voters.

Any theories as to why that is the case?

[DL]

I know that AMLO in Mexico is often described as being on the left but where is the evidence for that? He seemed very cosy with Trump and his Covid policies have been very Bolsonaro like. What has he ever done that is actually leftwing?

[DL]

I know that AMLO in Mexico is often described as being on the left but where is the evidence for that? He seemed very cosy with Trump and his Covid policies have been very Bolsonaro like. What has he ever done that is actually leftwing?

What has he done that is right-wing? And it needs to be something that you can’t associate to Trump.

Relationship with/Opinion on Trump doesn’t define the ideological spectrum lol

Being in denial about Covid and parroting anti-vax and anti-mask drivel that one usually associated with rightwing nutbars

[DL]

Reminder that Gabriel Boric is an anti-semite whose response to a Rosh Hashanah gift basket from Chilean Jews was to ask why they weren't calling upon Israel to end the occupation:

https://twitter.com/gabrielboric/status/1179498192985116672?lang=en

Oh, the horror. If that's your standard for antisemitism, then right is worse. Just google Ivan Moreira Palestina. My city even was declared a territory free of Israel Apartheid under an UDI mayor

In fact, a senate resolution calling for sanctions to Israel over the anexation of the west bank passed with unanimous support in the Senate, after being presented by an UDI senator

I do not think Boric is anti-Semitic (not that I know him personally and claim to know his sub-conscience). I think in this case he was ignorant of how his message plays into an anti-Semitic stereotype that all Jews in the world are somehow responsible for what the government of Israel does. They are not. Israelis are responsible for the actions of their government.

If an organization representing the Chinese community in Chile sent Boric a Happy Chinese New Year's message along with some moon cakes - do you think he would respond by saying "thanks for the cakes, but when was the last time you guys condemned the Chinese government for what its doing to the Uighurs?" - I think not.

[DL]

Well some might respond in that way - would they get called "anti-Chinese" for doing so?

Oh yes they would!! That I can assure you. I can only speak for what would happen in Canada. But I can say with certainty that if the Chinese-Canadian National Council sent the leader of any major political party a gift of mooncakes and a card wishing Happy New year - and the politician responded by tweeting "thanks for the cakes, but when are you going to denounce human rights abuses committed by China in Tibet etc..." - the reaction would be white hot fury - that person would be denounced for inciting anti-Chinese bigotry and for implying that Chinese Canadians are in any way responsible for the actions of the Chinese government. They would be pilloried across the political spectrum, would be persona non grata and would likely be forced to resign their position as leader.

It would be a similar story if the Canadian Arab Federation wished anyone happy Eid and got a response telling them they better do a better job of denouncing ISIS...

[DL]

Well, the thing is that the Jewish community in Chile, or rather the organization that send the message, tend to be extremely nasty on the Palestinian issue and engage in the same kind of attitude you are describing but with people of Palestinian descent and Hamas.

They also tend to promote some insane conspiracy theories about the Palestinian lobby that controls congress and government, secret indoctrination by Hezbollah and talking about the dual loyalties of Congress members of Palestinian descent. And well I want to believe they are doing it on purpose but Jesus Christ.

If the leader of one of these Chilean-Jewish organizations decides to run for public office in Chile then they can be held accountable for wat they have said - but attacking Jews in the diaspora for anything Israel does is pure anti-Semitism. If you don't like what Israel is doing - send a note to the Israeli ambassador 

[DL]

Boric didn't attack the Jewish diaspora. Improve your reading comprehension or take some Spanish language lessons, please. Stop telling lies and polluting everywhere with topics related to Israel

I don't think he meant to attack all Jews in Chile. He made a mistake and hopefully next time he will know better. When an organization representing the Jewish community in your country sends you new years greetings and a jar of honey - the correct response is something along the lines of "Thank you so much and I look forward to getting building closer ties with the Jewish community which has contributed so much to our country blah blah blah..." - you don't try to turn it into another Israel vs Palestinians food fight. Leave that for another day.

[DL]

If Bolsonaro, in a free society, can express his solidarity with Israel, then Boric can do the same with Palestine. That's just how a healthy, balanced discourse works.

I have no problem whatsoever with Boric expressing solidarity with Palestinians and if he wants to condemn the current government of Israel, then 9 times out of 10 I'd probably agree with him. But there is a huge difference between doing that and implying that diaspora Jews should take any responsibility for Israel. Boric is of Croatian descent - does anyone demand that he repudiate the government of Croatia for anything atrocities it might have committed in the Bosnian conflict?

[DL]

I have said over and over again and that I do NOT think Boric is anti-Semitic. I'm Jewish and if i were Chilean i would have enthusiastically voted for him!! But, I just think he needs to be more careful to avoid these "micro-aggressions" against Jews whereby they feel held to account all the time for whatever Israel does. I take zero responsibility for what Israel says or does i resent the implication that I should have to take a "position" on the Middle East or that i should feel any need to "apologize" for anything.

[DL]

Also, according to kaoras, this organization has taken a clear stance on the "Middle East affairs" that is clearly "pro-Israel" and "anti-Palestine". When this organization is trolling a certain Gabriel Boric sending him some "poisoned gifts", I think that Boric is entitled to ask that organization for commitment to decolonization in Palestine. That call from Boric shouldn't be taken as an attack against the rest of the Jewish community or particular individuals, for he is not questioning them

Sometimes the smart thing to do when you think you are being "trolled" is not to take the bait by sending a response that will inevitably be misinterpreted. and BTW: referring to a jar of honey from a Jewish organization as a "poisoned gift" sounds like a Medieval "blood libel" accusing Jews of spreading poison and pestilence - so maybe you should watch your language a bit more.

[DL]

Was it only the presidential run off on Sunday or were there also congressional elections? What is the final makeup of the Chilean parliament?

[DL]

This reminds me a bit of what happened in Canada in 1992 when we had a referendum on constitutional accords called the Charlottetown Accord and it was voted down. The thing about a constitutional referendum is that a constitution typically has hundreds (if not thousands) of individual clauses and provisions in an attempt to please every stakeholder under the sun. The problem is that for a voter to vote yes they have to agree with 100% o the what is being proposed and for a voters to vote no they can like 99% of what is in the constitution, but if there is so much as one thing in it that they don't like - they vote no. and as the old saying goes "the perfect becomes the enemy of the good"