Ontario 2018 election

[DL]

In 2011 federal election the NDP got 22 seats with 25.8% of the Ontario popular vote and the Liberals got 11 seats with 25.3% of the vote....what do you think happens if the NDP gets - say - 31% and the Liberals get 20%??

[DL]

https://twitter.com/innovativerg?lang=en

I can't find the data, but its linked in their TWitter above, Innovative REsearch Group poll:

PC - 35%
NDP - 31%
OLP - 27%

I find those OLP numbers high? but the graph shows a major downward trend.

Two things to note. That poll was in field May 9-12 so its almost a week old and the past week has seen more and more NDP momentum. Secondly, Innovative's online panel has historically been the LEAST NDP friendly - -ver the past year when other online polls from Ipsos and Campaign would have the NDP at 24 or 25% - Innovative would have them at 19-20%

[DL]

I wouldn’t put much stock in the individual riding numbers but across Toronto this poll has the PCs at 35%, the NDP at 32% and the Liberals at 27%, tonput things in perspective in 2014 the Liberals took 49% in Toronto and the PCs and NDP took 23% each

[DL]

The latest EKOs poll had a sample size of 1,100 or so...wouldn’t some of these regions have hefty very small subsamples?

[DL]

Holy macaroni! New Abacus poll says it’s now a virtual dead heat PCs 35%, NDP 34%, Liberals 24%

[DL]

Without getting into details, the Mainstreet daily tracking does seem to show the PCs gradually dropping day by day over the past few days...maybe all the bad publicity is starting to catch up to them

[DL]

The PC already hold every single seat in the south west that is outside of Windsor, London and KW so if there vite is up by ten points there it means they just waste votes winning seats they already have by bigger margins

[DL]

From CityTv last night, it was noted Andrea has not yet been to an NDP held seat? (which is hugely telling if that's the case!)

That's not quite true. Andrea was in NDP held Kenora last week

[DL]

Leger poll:

PCs 37%
NDP 37%
Liberals 21%

[DL]

I heard through the NDP grapevine that they are shockingly finding themselves in contention in Elgin-Middlesex-London

[DL]

Any way you slice it, i expect the Liberals to be reduced to just 3 or 4 seats

[DL]

I don’t see how the Liberals would salvage even 5 seats if their popular vote actually crashed to 14%. I think they would get ZERO seats if that happened

[DL]

Laura Kaminker's pacifism may be well received in some downtown urban centres, but will probably not help the NDP in rural ridings and smaller towns. Harden's opinions on getting rid of the Catholic school boards may have merit, but will probably ensure that the NDP win very few seats in Eastern Ontario.  Tasleem Riaz's facebook Nazi meme share may be unintentional, but it will kill off any chances of NDP being competitive in many Jewish communities.

Andrea Horwath, I feel your pain !

The Laura Kaminker story was a big stoyr a week ago and through the long weekend...and NDP support just kept going up. No evidence of any impact

Harden's past views on Catholic schools are also irrelevant. He has said he will follow party policy and no one seriously thinks the NDP is suddenly going to eliminate the Catholic school system...in any case in a downtown, secular "urban intelligentsia" riding like Ottawa Centre, I'll bet most people would agree with Harden about merging the school systems into one.

The Jewish vote is only really relevant in three or four ridings (Thornhill, York Centre, Eglinton-Lawrence and St. Paul's) and the NDP could win 100 out of 124 seats and not even come close in any of those four...

[DL]

DL. I agree that these probably won't have any lasting impact, but re the Ottawa Centre guy; the point is less about that local race and more about the image of the party. I doubt it would have made much difference where Lake of Fire guy had run for example.

That's a silly comparison. The issue of whether to have a single secular school board in Ontario has been debated in Ontario for a century and Harden's view is very much within the mainstream. There have been tons of NDP (and other party's) politicians who have proposed merging the Catholic and public school systems - in fact long time MPP Michael Prue ran for leader against Horwath in 2009 partly on a platform of wanting the NDP to support a single school system. This issue also comes up at every NDP convention...and I might add both of the major teacher's unions in Ontario - ETFO and OSSTF officially support de-funding Catholic schools. This is nothing new.

I'm not suggesting that the NDP should push for a Quebec or Newfoundland style single secular school system - just saying it is a very mainstream point of view that commands a lot of support among the general public

[DL]

Jewish religion (2011 NHS):

Thornhill  40,710  37.1%
Eglinton-Lawrence  24,405  22%
York Centre  18,870  19%
St. Paul's  14,950  14.7%
Don Valley West  8,735  8.8%
Willowdale  7,180  6.6%
University-Rosedale  6,735  7.1%
Richmond Hill  5,605  5.2%
Aurora-Oak Ridges  5,035  4.8%
Markham-Thornhill  5,030  4.9%

Apart from University-Rosedale that is a list the 10 LEAST winnable ridings in Ontario for the NDP...and i might add the Jews who live in University-Rosedale (like yours truly :-)) tend to be very progressive and secular and won't give a hoot about this.

[DL]

Our numbers are out: 36-35-20

So I see

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/05/a-volatile-electorate-producing-a-newly-tied-race/

[DL]

If anyone is interested I calculated the Toronto regional results from 2011 Federally on the current map and got:

Liberal 34.84%
Conservative 31.09%
 NDP 30.38%
Green 3.18%
Other 0.51%

With the Liberals possibly falling in third in Toronto it’s going to be tough for them to hold on to several of their current seats.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1--o2KlbsZxgMCjJV5bxZmY4CvvaYUTJbBnkyrjy5FjE

Interestingly the only three ridings the Liberals would have won comfortably in 2011 on this map were Etobicoke North (certain to go PC), Scarborough agincourt (almost certain to go Pc this time) and Humber. Alley. Mack Creek ( certain to go NDP)

[DL]

Can someone provide these riding polls?

They're encouraging if you're a Conservative.

PCs leading in the DVE and DVN, blowout in Mississauga-Lakeshore.

Even Brampton only looks OK from an NDP point of view.  West and North they're neck in neck with the PCs, South PCs are leading.

The NDP is well ahead in Kingston - but that was never going PC anyway.

What I find shocking is that the NDP is actually running second in DVE and not tnhat far behind the PCs and also that Eglinton-Lawrence is a three way race...that is usually the NDP's worst riding in the city!

[DL]

Mainstreet has the OLP at an incredibly low 16% so a dead cat bounce would not be a surprise

[DL]

The PCs seem to be suffering no ill effects from their various scandals (Remember the 407?) and lacking a costed platform.  The Liberals have decided that the Business Liberals are a lost cause, and their only way to avoid catastrophe is to regain some Progressive Liberals from the NDP.  And the NDP bozo eruptions keeping continuing.

I'm not so sure that the PCs are suffering no "ill effects". 10 days ago they were in the low 40s and had a hefty ten point lead in most polls. In the wake of the various scandals and more and more flack over the last of a platform they have dropped to the 37-38% range. That is significant.

I totally disagree that the Liberals have given up on "business Liberals" and are targetting "progressive Liberals". Its the exact opposite. Wynne is attacking the NDP for being too leftwing and too pro-labour. They are tryng to save ridings like St. Paul's and win back the "I'm too smart top vote for Ford but i'm also too rich to vote NDP" crowd (in other words business Liberals) 

[DL]

Today's Mainstreet riding polls are fantastic if you're a Conservative.  The idea of a rural orange wave across Southern Ontario a la '90 (which was far less probable in today's circumstances) looks like a pure fantasy at this point.  Also, the PCs are ahead in Kenora and Sault Ste. Marie.

It's very difficult to think of many PC seats that the NDP are poised to take.

Two points:

1. Northern seats like Kenora have very very large First nation populations often living on reserves and they tend to be very difficult to capture in polls - especially IVR polls

2. There aren't many current PC seats where the NDP could win, given that 2014 was a very bad year for the PCs, but there are a couple: Sarnia-Lambton and Kitchener-Conestoga are a definite possibilities according to the polls and Chatham-Kent-Leamington is clearly a top target...and the riding polls today have the NDP surprisingly competitive against Fedeli in Nipissing

[DL]

The NDP seems to be making major gains among urban voters, the young, the well educated, the "liberally minded" and to some extent ethnic minorities - constituencies the Liberals ate their lunch in during the last election.  Meanwhile they're competing with Ford for the working class vote, they're not anywhere close to "owning" it.

In other words, they are barely taking from the PC side at all.  This line about all these "traditional Tories appalled by Ford voting for Andrea Horwath" doesn't seem to be producing any meaningful gains.   I think there are very few voters who stuck with Hudak last time who have any problem voting for the party under Ford.  Like the "never Trump" Republicans, it didn't amount to much.  

Keep in mind that in 2014 the PCs were at a very low 31%...I doubt if the NDP gains much from people who were willing to vote for the PCs under Tim "let's fire 100,000 people" Hudak. BUT, the PC are polling at about 37% in most polls now...who are those people who are taking them from 31% to 37%? Clearly the vast majority voted Liberal in 2014 and the NDP could be able to intercept some of that crowd...

[DL]

FYI, Kitchener South-Hespeler is a new seat but is notionally Liberal based on 2014 results that it would not be a gain from the PCs. Also, Durham is a Liberal seat currently

[DL]

New poll by Innovative all post-debate

NDP 36% (up 5)
PCs 34% (down 1)
Libs 22% (down 4)

and people who saw any of the debate saw it as a tie between Wynne and Horwath with Ford a distant third

https://innovativeresearch.ca/election-tracking-wave-4-the-ndp-move-ahead/?utm_campaign=Sample%20-%20My%20first%20inbound%20campaign%20in%20HubSpot&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

[DL]

Pollara:

NDP 43% (up 5)
PCs 32% (down 5)
Liberals 17% (down 1)

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-the-ndp-lead-keeps-growing/

This is real. People are saying NDP = No Doug Party!!!