Early Voting thread.

[xavier110]

VBM should be fairly interesting to track in AZ. 95 percent of the D primary vote was by mail this year. Curious to see how that holds up in the general. I think it’s safe to assume that registered D turnout in AZ will basically equal the final early voting numbers — almost every registered D is on the early ballot list, unlike Rs and Is.

[xavier110]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1582846620315492357

It was a stormy weekend, which affected mail delivery. My household did not receive all of our ballots on the same day, for example.

Or it could be that folks are truly deciding last minute.

Or it’s the size of the ballot — it’s an unusually long one here, with ten ballot props (don’t California my Arizona) and fifty judges up for retention in some locales.

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1583905285231345664?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ct...

AZ update. In raw numbers, Ds up 10 percent, Rs down 32 percent and Is down 13 percent vs 2018.

Do you think the 90k early Republican voters chose Lake and Finchem on their mail ballots? Sigh lol

[xavier110]

Do have final early vote totals from 2018?

For 2020, it was:

Early vote (mail ins):
2.47M (37.4% D, 37.0% R)
Return rate: 76.6% for Ds, 73.8% for Rs

So essentially, if Ds are in the lead by Election Day still, they could feel comfortable most likely. Election Day vote for GOP is the question though. Guess it depends on what the final # is (in terms of total ballots received)

I can try to find them.

The AZ #s are not bad for Ds by any means. I know they’re either meeting or exceeding their 2018 #s at this same point in time… I don’t know in what world that equals bad.

I wouldn’t over index on these #s, though.

[xavier110]

People need to stop grouping AZ with bad for Ds list. That is simply not the case. They’re exceeding/meeting 2018 benchmarks thus far.

The confounding factor is GOP EDay turnout. It may seem surprising, but only around 17 percent of the GOP primary vote in Maricopa, for example, was banked on Election Day this year (source: https://elections.maricopa.gov/asset/jcr:03a2698d-ff49-49eb-a2b2-5b4f5fe608c8/08-02-2022-1%20Final%20Official%20Summary%20Report%20AUG2022.pdf). Over 80 percent of partisan republicans voted early despite Trump!

And 15 percent voted on EDay for 2018 GOP primary… so it’s not some huge jump (https://elections.maricopa.gov/asset/jcr:d0cf70c9-ee46-4d2f-a4f4-a789870d0ee8/08-28-2018%20Final%20Summary%20Report.pdf).

It seems safe to say Ds will barely be a blip on EDay, however.

[xavier110]

People need to stop grouping AZ with bad for Ds list. That is simply not the case. They’re exceeding/meeting 2018 benchmarks thus far.

The confounding factor is GOP EDay turnout. It may seem surprising, but only around 17 percent of the GOP primary vote in Maricopa, for example, was banked on Election Day this year (source: https://elections.maricopa.gov/asset/jcr:03a2698d-ff49-49eb-a2b2-5b4f5fe608c8/08-02-2022-1%20Final%20Official%20Summary%20Report%20AUG2022.pdf). Over 80 percent of partisan republicans voted early despite Trump!

And 15 percent voted on EDay for 2018 GOP primary… so it’s not some huge jump (https://elections.maricopa.gov/asset/jcr:d0cf70c9-ee46-4d2f-a4f4-a789870d0ee8/08-28-2018%20Final%20Summary%20Report.pdf).

It seems safe to say Ds will barely be a blip on EDay, however.

Maricopa republicans skew old so their votes skew early. Looking statewide tells a different story. These are the % of vote share received on election day, based on my calculations from the state website:

Biden 2020: 7%
Trump 2020: 15%
Kelly 2022: 7%
Senate republicans 2022: 22%

I’m even seeing Masters and Lake specifically getting about 26% of their votes on election day. 2018 is not a valid comparison as the vote method divide continues to grow.

Still, Maricopa is fairly instructive since it’s where the majority lives. I would be  surprised if Masters and Lake’s ED vote is 26 percent of their total when the ED vote was around 20 percent of the total primary vote — and you would expect those folks, primary participants, to be the diehards. But who knows

[xavier110]

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers.  

Again, NO. I don’t know how you can look at the AZ vote and say with a straight face that Rs are over performing and Ds are missing their numbers when R turnout has cratered and Ds are meeting 2018 turnout

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1587587919187161089?cxt=HHwWgsDRzaKzn4gsAAAA

Sam is an analyst who plays with these numbers all day. He suggests that we are on track for 62-63% turnout, very high for a midterm, and even provides party reg estimates (1.03m GOP, 850k D, 715k I = 2.5-2.6mm voters). In 2018, about 150-160k more Rs turned out vs Ds, which would be consistent.

Little indicates that there will be a GOP romp here. Just close races a la 2018.

[xavier110]

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers.  

Again, NO. I don’t know how you can look at the AZ vote and say with a straight face that Rs are over performing and Ds are missing their numbers when R turnout has cratered and Ds are meeting 2018 turnout

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1587587919187161089?cxt=HHwWgsDRzaKzn4gsAAAA
Sam is an analyst who plays with these numbers all day. He suggests that we are on track for 62-63% turnout, very high for a midterm, and even provides party reg estimates (1.03m GOP, 850k D, 715k I = 2.5-2.6mm voters). In 2018, about 150-160k more Rs turned out vs Ds, which would be consistent.

Little indicates that there will be a GOP romp here. Just close races a la 2018.

You keep making a point that is blatantly wrong and misleading others. Once again:

2018:
McSally received 9.2% of her votes on Election Day, compared to 7.8% for Sinema
Doucey 8.7% to 8.0%

2020:
Trump received 14.6% of his votes on Election Day, compared to 7.0% of Biden’s votes
McSally 14.4% to Kelly’s 7.3%

2022:
Republicans in the primary received 20.1% of their vote on election day, compared to 7.2% for Kelly

Governor’s races were the same split

The democrat share has remained constant since 2018, the Republican share has only increased. You can believe whatever you want, but I will go on the record saying I am certain that republicans will over-perform if these patterns hold.

What in the world are you saying?

No one is disputing that EDay will be GOP Day.

In the post I just cited, GOP turnout ultimately will exceed that of Ds.

There is just no indication that the final turnout numbers will be some 250-300k GOP turnout advantage when this is all said and done.

What is misleading when I am literally just presenting a D analyst’s current turnout projections based off the current rate of returns…

[xavier110]

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers.  

Again, NO. I don’t know how you can look at the AZ vote and say with a straight face that Rs are over performing and Ds are missing their numbers when R turnout has cratered and Ds are meeting 2018 turnout

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1587587919187161089?cxt=HHwWgsDRzaKzn4gsAAAA

Sam is an analyst who plays with these numbers all day. He suggests that we are on track for 62-63% turnout, very high for a midterm, and even provides party reg estimates (1.03m GOP, 850k D, 715k I = 2.5-2.6mm voters). In 2018, about 150-160k more Rs turned out vs Ds, which would be consistent.

Little indicates that there will be a GOP romp here. Just close races a la 2018.

Then why are the congressional districts with the highest turnout relative to 2020 the R districts? Your buddy Sam seems to have forgotten that voting patterns have changed since 2018, and only the exception states which were pretty much all mail even in 2018 and had a consistent Mail voting culture (that is why I am willing to accept MN Mike’s data)

Can you unpack this? I am not sure that I am following what you’re saying.

The CDs in AZ with the highest turnout are the oldest and most educated, AZ01 - a swing district that went for Biden, and AZ08, home to Sun City, a retirement community that gets like 95% turnout, lol. No surprises there and not really indicative of much?

And yes, voting patterns have changed, though not hugely in a state like AZ. I am not disputing that. I’m not saying that because GOP is under running 2018 by 100k votes right now that these 100k voters won’t turn out on EDay.

[xavier110]

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers.  

Again, NO. I don’t know how you can look at the AZ vote and say with a straight face that Rs are over performing and Ds are missing their numbers when R turnout has cratered and Ds are meeting 2018 turnout

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1587587919187161089?cxt=HHwWgsDRzaKzn4gsAAAA
Sam is an analyst who plays with these numbers all day. He suggests that we are on track for 62-63% turnout, very high for a midterm, and even provides party reg estimates (1.03m GOP, 850k D, 715k I = 2.5-2.6mm voters). In 2018, about 150-160k more Rs turned out vs Ds, which would be consistent.

Little indicates that there will be a GOP romp here. Just close races a la 2018.

You keep making a point that is blatantly wrong and misleading others. Once again:

2018:
McSally received 9.2% of her votes on Election Day, compared to 7.8% for Sinema
Doucey 8.7% to 8.0%

2020:
Trump received 14.6% of his votes on Election Day, compared to 7.0% of Biden’s votes
McSally 14.4% to Kelly’s 7.3%

2022:
Republicans in the primary received 20.1% of their vote on election day, compared to 7.2% for Kelly

Governor’s races were the same split

The democrat share has remained constant since 2018, the Republican share has only increased. You can believe whatever you want, but I will go on the record saying I am certain that republicans will over-perform if these patterns hold.

What in the world are you saying?

No one is disputing that EDay will be GOP Day.

In the post I just cited, GOP turnout ultimately will exceed that of Ds.

There is just no indication that the final turnout numbers will be some 250-300k GOP turnout advantage when this is all said and done.

What is misleading when I am literally just presenting a D analyst’s current turnout projections based off the current rate of returns…

I’m saying your comparison to 2018 makes no sense. Those numbers show that there was not much difference between early and E day votes in 2018. In 2020, it was huge. In the 2022 primaries, it got even bigger.

For the 2018 comparison to be relevant, Kelly and Masters would need to roughly tie the Election Day vote because that’s what happened between McSally and Sinema.

I think we agree more than disagree here: I agree that EDay vote will skew much more GOP than 18, but add that the banked early vote will be much more D than 18. The first drop at 8pm on Tuesday will be some huge Kelly/Hobbs/D numbers.

A +25k D early vote equals big D margins on EDay night. Sinema won by 2.5 in a +160k R pool of votes is my point.

Either way, to my original point, the current rate of returns does not suggest a D underperformance, unlike what Hollywood says, which is what prompted all of this. An R overperformance cannot be gleaned by the early vote either, when you can assume that the final R early vote numbers will total 80-85 percent of GOP vote.

[xavier110]

60-40 R-D/I split doesn't seem too bad for Ds - yet - in Maricopa, considering we were preparing for a huge influx of Rs today.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590004418019459072

The tweet is gone. Is this the one that said 100k voters?

It’s more like 40k, same 60 R - 25 I - 15 D split.

Should get bluer throughout the day, but probably not by much.

[xavier110]

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers.  

Again, NO. I don’t know how you can look at the AZ vote and say with a straight face that Rs are over performing and Ds are missing their numbers when R turnout has cratered and Ds are meeting 2018 turnout

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1587587919187161089?cxt=HHwWgsDRzaKzn4gsAAAA

Sam is an analyst who plays with these numbers all day. He suggests that we are on track for 62-63% turnout, very high for a midterm, and even provides party reg estimates (1.03m GOP, 850k D, 715k I = 2.5-2.6mm voters). In 2018, about 150-160k more Rs turned out vs Ds, which would be consistent.

Little indicates that there will be a GOP romp here. Just close races a la 2018.

I’m bumping this because everyone piled on me and I was right