GOP's path for Electoral College victory in 2024 (user search)
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  GOP's path for Electoral College victory in 2024 (search mode)
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Poll
Question: What's the easiest way for Trump to hit 270?
#1
WI + PA + NV
 
#2
GA + AZ + WI
 
#3
GA + PA
 
#4
AZ + PA + NV
 
#5
AZ + WI + PA
 
#6
PA + MI (House breaks tie)
 
#7
Other (please specify below)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 49

Author Topic: GOP's path for Electoral College victory in 2024  (Read 1683 times)
HAMMERS
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Posts: 37
« on: July 19, 2023, 03:33:37 PM »

Not sure what you mean by "easiest".   Easiest, in therms of mathematics?   Or do you mean most likely to happen?   I think the question should have been phrased as "likeliest" scenario. 
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HAMMERS
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Posts: 37
« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2023, 03:38:28 PM »

Do you have any out-of-the-box ideas for how he might be able to build a coalition that can get there?




Solid shades are party holds. Light shades are pickups.
I'm conservative but this is vastly unrealistic.   He's not going to get MN and MI both LOL!   MI was a 1-off fluke, in 2016.   Not going to happen again.   So right off the bat, there are 25 votes to subtract from this unrealistic scenario.
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HAMMERS
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Posts: 37
« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2023, 12:48:50 AM »

Easiest, in terms of mathematics?

What do you even mean, by that?


Do you mean the likeliest to happen? I think this question should have been phrased as the "likeliest" scenario.

Yes, that's what I was referring to. Sorry if I've been unclear  in the past.

He won't be able to win both MN and MI. Right off the bat, that's 25 votes that you can subtract here already.

I agree that MN will almost certainly vote to the left of the tipping point, and MI is quite likely to do the same.

MI was a 1-off fluke in 2016. Not going to happen again.

Not really; Biden only won it by 3 points in 2020 so it could easily flip back to Trump again  if he manages to carry the EC.

I agree with   your  overall point   though; the scenario seems  rather strange, in that  those states (and, in particular, NH) are flipping  before NV, GA, AZ ...

It was a Republican year in tons of places.

Meh, not overall. Can you name them, for instance?

Nationwide, the GOP didn't exactly do "well" last year.

In any case, AZ certainly wasn't one of those places. If you're saying that's Lake's (or Masters') fault, then  that  just   even  more strongly   proves  my point  that  the loss  was  on  her, and won't have  any  bearing  on  the 2024 race, when she (likely) won't be  on  the ticket.

You already answered me about what you meant by "easiest" but I was originally wondering, if you meant easiest, as in shortest path mathematically (route A to the bank is 3 miles while route B is 4 miles, so route A is "easier" in terms of a shorter mathematical path), or easiest as in most likely (which you confirmed you meant).
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HAMMERS
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Posts: 37
« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2023, 05:23:59 PM »

if you meant easiest as in his shortest possible path, mathematically speaking (route A to the bank is 3 miles while route B is 4 miles, so route A is "easier" in terms of a shorter mathematical path)

In which case, they're *all* equally "easy", as Trump's path requires him to gain 35 (or 34, depending  on  how you count it) Biden EVs. That's what I was confused by.
Yes I guess they're all equally "easy", in terms of mathematical "length".    That's why I was confused by the OP's use of the word "easiest", rather than "likeliest". 
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