Will Russia try to establish a second front of the war from Transnistria?

[Kali Redcoat]

The war is not looking particularly great for Russia. Russia failed to capture Kiev, the largest, city, and the second largest, city, Kharkiv. Russia is also having trouble holding onto the Kherson Oblast.

However, Russia has troops stationed in Transnistria. Do you think Russia will try to use its troops in Transnistria to launch a second front for the invasion, forcing Ukraine to fight a two-front war?

Russian troops in Transnistria are like bottom of the barrel stuff, I very much doubt they would play any role in the conflict. That being said, I am confident that Russia will eventually capture Odessa, which would bring it close to the border with Transnistria. I think postwar, Russia would annex the country. If Gagauzia also declared independence and went along for the ride, we'd be pretty close to my ideal situation for the Black Sea region with a post-Soviet POD. Support for reunification with Romania would be rather high in Moldova as a result (I think there aren't that many people who are strongly in favor of an independent Moldova who are *also* anti-Russia and Europhilic.). I could imagine that Moldova would be forced to recognize Russia's claims, which would clear a hurdle with NATO and make reunification simpler. Moldova would be part of the EU, and importantly NATO, and leave Russia with an even longer direct border with NATO. But we would get to see Romanian reunification which is something I've always wanted to see.

Even if Russia doesn't take Odessa (which I doubt), I think Romanian reunification has become much more likely than ever before.

[Kali Redcoat]

That being said, I am confident that Russia will eventually capture Odessa

This confidence is presumably due to something, but its certainly not their conduct of the war so far.

I think Russia will either win the war with all of its objectives achieved, or the war ends with a ceasefire and Putin caving to something like Minsk II because he's too focused on looking moderate. Ukraine's performance is contingent solely on Western support. Fatigue with sending materiel to the war effort will kick in as Russia simultaneously pours more troops into the conflict. The only way I don't see Russian troops in Odessa is if Ukraine calls for a ceasefire before this occurs.

Of course I also just think it would be funny if Transnistria was annexed into Russia because that's something we wouldn't have seen coming even five years ago. But nowadays there is growing sentiment in Russia to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia rather than keeping them independent. So I think it's plausible if Russia gets a border with Moldova and down to the Danube out of this war, that Transnistria will be annexed. Same goes for the two breakaway Georgian republics sometime this decade.

[Kali Redcoat]

That being said, I am confident that Russia will eventually capture Odessa

This confidence is presumably due to something, but its certainly not their conduct of the war so far.

I think Russia will either win the war with all of its objectives achieved, or the war ends with a ceasefire and Putin caving to something like Minsk II because he's too focused on looking moderate. Ukraine's performance is contingent solely on Western support. Fatigue with sending materiel to the war effort will kick in as Russia simultaneously pours more troops into the conflict. The only way I don't see Russian troops in Odessa is if Ukraine calls for a ceasefire before this occurs.

Of course I also just think it would be funny if Transnistria was annexed into Russia because that's something we wouldn't have seen coming even five years ago. But nowadays there is growing sentiment in Russia to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia rather than keeping them independent. So I think it's plausible if Russia gets a border with Moldova and down to the Danube out of this war, that Transnistria will be annexed. Same goes for the two breakaway Georgian republics sometime this decade.

This may be the stupidest take I’ve seen so far. Congratulations, you’ve been Putin’s Woodysucker, J-China, and global south guy.

Russia has no way of getting to Odesa. Let alone back across the Dnipro. Their chance to make it to Odesa was thwarted by the heroic stand by Ukrainian soldiers AND irregular civilian volunteer militias in Mykolaïv and Voznesensk, preventing a crossing of the Southern Bug and preventing the capture of Yuzhnoukraïnsk NPP.

Two major rivers, and the fact that Ukraine will send any landing ship approaching Odesa down to the depths to join Moskva make it impossible for this to happen. Western support will continue regardless. This war is too important to let Putin win. The US knows it, Europe knows it, and anyone opposed to the Moscow-Beijing Axis knows it

Wow. Here's your Reddit silver sir. Also I don't know who those guys are.

The simple fact is that Russia has a larger population to pull men from than Ukraine, and that sanctions did not noticeably impact public opinion of the war, nor have they prevented Russia from continuing its war effort. And as Ukraine is running out of troops, Russia will soon mobilize yet again and send more troops into the conflict. The result of this war was preordained for this reason. Even American media is catching up.

And as I said before, Putin is a moderate within a Russian context. For every dovish Russian, there are more than enough Russians who think Putin is not going nearly hard enough.