Will Russia try to establish a second front of the war from Transnistria?

[WalterWhite]

The war is not looking particularly great for Russia. Russia failed to capture Kiev, the largest, city, and the second largest, city, Kharkiv. Russia is also having trouble holding onto the Kherson Oblast.

However, Russia has troops stationed in Transnistria. Do you think Russia will try to use its troops in Transnistria to launch a second front for the invasion, forcing Ukraine to fight a two-front war?

[President Johnson]

I doubt Russia has the military capabilities to do so. There are even some military analysts expecting them to run of material as soon as this fall.

[AAPSO]

No. If a Transnistria front opens up, it will be Ukraine attempting to seize a massive Soviet-era ammo depot.

However, that's unlikely because both sides are anxious about the possible impact on Moldovan domestic politics.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It’s more likely Ukraine intervene in Transnistria with Moldova blessing/help than Russia attacking from  it as they only a small skeleton crew there

[President Johnson]

It’s more likely Ukraine intervene in Transnistria with Moldova blessing/help than Russia attacking from  it as they only a small skeleton crew there

This would be pretty embarrassing for Russia, if Ukraine liberated Transnistria after retaking all their own territory.

[The Mikado]

The war is not looking particularly great for Russia. Russia failed to capture Kiev, the largest, city, and the second largest, city, Kharkiv. Russia is also having trouble holding onto the Kherson Oblast.

However, Russia has troops stationed in Transnistria. Do you think Russia will try to use its troops in Transnistria to launch a second front for the invasion, forcing Ukraine to fight a two-front war?

Russia has about a thousand garrison troops in Transnistria, many of whom have long since "gone native," in addition to the 6,000ish actual Transnistrian troops in Transnistria. Even if you got Transnistria on board you're not pushing into Ukraine with 7k guys. It'd be suicide.

[PSOL]

The time to do this was in the initial stages of the war

[KaiserDave]

At this point, this would only result in the dissolution of Transnistria and realization of Moldovan NATO ambitions. So, quite likely given Russian foreign policy.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I do not understand what is the point for Russia to keep a paramilitary exclave, which is absolutely useless from a military point of view. Again, just so that the muzhiks had something to drink for?

[Lord Halifax]

I do not understand what is the point for Russia to keep a paramilitary exclave, which is absolutely useless from a military point of view. Again, just so that the muzhiks had something to drink for?

it destabilizes Moldova, prevents it from joining NATO and blocks any serious talk of reunification of Romania and Moldova.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

it destabilizes Moldova, prevents it from joining NATO and blocks any serious talk of reunification of Romania and Moldova.

Ukraine could create a precedent for NATO membership for a country whose part is occupied or annexed by Russia. We can also look from the point of view that with a smaller territory, it would be easier for Moldova to unite with Romania if Moldova renounces territorial claims to Transnistria. It hurts the patriots, but Transnistria will no longer bring anything good to Moldova, it's just a big criminal ghetto.

[CumbrianLefty]

At this point, this would only result in the dissolution of Transnistria and realization of Moldovan NATO ambitions. So, quite likely given Russian foreign policy.

But haven't you heard, Russia is going to TaKe tHe SuWaLkI gAp!!??!!???!!!111!!!

[Zinneke]

I do not understand what is the point for Russia to keep a paramilitary exclave, which is absolutely useless from a military point of view. Again, just so that the muzhiks had something to drink for?

In addition to what was being said, they can launder money there too.

[Frodo]

I wish they would. 

[MATTROSE94]

I doubt Russia has the military capabilities to do so. There are even some military analysts expecting them to run of material as soon as this fall.

I think China, Iran, Belarus, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the PMF will start supplying Russia with supplies if that were to happen.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

The PRC has been doing this for a long time, through Hong Kong. Iran has been supplying UAVs to Russia for a long time. Belarus is simply annexed by Russia, they have a single state, so it makes no sense to talk about them as two separate independent countries. Similarly, it makes no sense to talk about Hamas, Hezbollah, the PMF and the Houthis as something separate from Iran. North Korea also provides military support to Russia.

But Russia somehow keeps getting its bell rung.

[MATTROSE94]

The PRC has been doing this for a long time, through Hong Kong. Iran has been supplying UAVs to Russia for a long time. Belarus is simply annexed by Russia, they have a single state, so it makes no sense to talk about them as two separate independent countries. Similarly, it makes no sense to talk about Hamas, Hezbollah, the PMF and the Houthis as something separate from Iran. North Korea also provides military support to Russia.

But Russia somehow keeps getting its bell rung.

I meant formal sending of troops to help Russia. Iran has one of the worlds largest standing armies and can use human wave attacks to bring the Ukraine army to its knees. Similarly, both China and North Korea have very large and skilled military forces who would defeat Ukrainian troops with ease in the battlefield.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The PRC has been doing this for a long time, through Hong Kong. Iran has been supplying UAVs to Russia for a long time. Belarus is simply annexed by Russia, they have a single state, so it makes no sense to talk about them as two separate independent countries. Similarly, it makes no sense to talk about Hamas, Hezbollah, the PMF and the Houthis as something separate from Iran. North Korea also provides military support to Russia.

But Russia somehow keeps getting its bell rung.

I meant formal sending of troops to help Russia. Iran has one of the worlds largest standing armies and can use human wave attacks to bring the Ukraine army to its knees. Similarly, both China and North Korea have very large and skilled military forces who would defeat Ukrainian troops with ease in the battlefield.

I guess Saudi-Iranian rapprochement makes this a feasible option if the Iranian leadership feels it to be such. At least, if any country was to send men to aid Russia, Iran is near the top of the "Likely" list.
I'm sure Washington would know if that was to actually happen though, and they would probably be ready to deal with the eventualities that one might foresee coming from it.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

At the beginning of a full-scale war, the Russian media very intensively broadcast a video of Assad's soldiers holding some kind of rally, and the announcers presented it as a voluntary recruitment of Syrians to the anti-Ukrainian front. But a few days later, for some unknown reason, any information about this was sucked into a black hole.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I doubt Russia has the military capabilities to do so. There are even some military analysts expecting them to run of material as soon as this fall.

I think China, Iran, Belarus, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the PMF will start supplying Russia with supplies if that were to happen.

And what "supplies" do these groups have to send, even if they wanted to?

[All Along The Watchtower]

I doubt Russia has the military capabilities to do so. There are even some military analysts expecting them to run of material as soon as this fall.

I think China, Iran, Belarus, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the PMF will start supplying Russia with supplies if that were to happen.

And what "supplies" do these groups have to send, even if they wanted to?

Also, we’ve seen that Lukashenko is not particularly interested in assisting Putin with his personal Vietnam—if only for his own domestic political (and personal) survival.

[Kali Redcoat]

The war is not looking particularly great for Russia. Russia failed to capture Kiev, the largest, city, and the second largest, city, Kharkiv. Russia is also having trouble holding onto the Kherson Oblast.

However, Russia has troops stationed in Transnistria. Do you think Russia will try to use its troops in Transnistria to launch a second front for the invasion, forcing Ukraine to fight a two-front war?

Russian troops in Transnistria are like bottom of the barrel stuff, I very much doubt they would play any role in the conflict. That being said, I am confident that Russia will eventually capture Odessa, which would bring it close to the border with Transnistria. I think postwar, Russia would annex the country. If Gagauzia also declared independence and went along for the ride, we'd be pretty close to my ideal situation for the Black Sea region with a post-Soviet POD. Support for reunification with Romania would be rather high in Moldova as a result (I think there aren't that many people who are strongly in favor of an independent Moldova who are *also* anti-Russia and Europhilic.). I could imagine that Moldova would be forced to recognize Russia's claims, which would clear a hurdle with NATO and make reunification simpler. Moldova would be part of the EU, and importantly NATO, and leave Russia with an even longer direct border with NATO. But we would get to see Romanian reunification which is something I've always wanted to see.

Even if Russia doesn't take Odessa (which I doubt), I think Romanian reunification has become much more likely than ever before.

[CumbrianLefty]

That being said, I am confident that Russia will eventually capture Odessa

This confidence is presumably due to something, but its certainly not their conduct of the war so far.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I doubt Russia has the military capabilities to do so. There are even some military analysts expecting them to run of material as soon as this fall.

I think China, Iran, Belarus, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the PMF will start supplying Russia with supplies if that were to happen.

And what "supplies" do these groups have to send, even if they wanted to?

Also, we’ve seen that Lukashenko is not particularly interested in assisting Putin with his personal Vietnam—if only for his own domestic political (and personal) survival.

Lukashenko has supplied Russia with plenty already, and will continue to do so for this very reason. Every Belarusian tank which ends up in the Russian army is one less reason for Putin to pressure Lukashenko to send in the Belarusian army.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Involving Transnistria in the war would be suicidal since it's a skinny little worm of a state that could be easily split in two and annihilated by Ukrainian forces, and also potentially draw Moldova into the war.