2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[East Coast Republican]

Republicans are certainly taking the gloves off.  

Christie is even taking his bib off

Classy!

[East Coast Republican]

Let's see what you guys think now.

Quinnipiac says Corzine is leading Christie by 5%

43-38-13.  Christie leads independents by 15%. 

Why are all the polls all over the place??

[East Coast Republican]

This is going to seem REALLY partisan of me but do the crosstabs of this poll look a little messed up to you guys?  Christie increases from 9 to 15 on Indie vote, loses 3 on R I think Corzine gained on D but still...why such a wild swing if Christie went up on the indie vote?  Similar crosstabs to these gave Christie a 1% lead last week.

If someone has good theories Im open to listening to them.

[East Coast Republican]

More trash from Democracy Corps

[East Coast Republican]

I want to make an interesting point.

Every poll that has had Corzine in the lead so far has either been known to have extreme bias or an observable polling flaw EXCEPT one: Fairleigh Dickinson.  Meanwhile, polls that have shown Christie ahead usually have very good track records BUT one of them usually overestimates Republican positions in statewide races occasionallyWhile they have had lower results for Christie throughout this race, I haven't seen any noticeable bias from them over the course of this election or in the past...but I also don't know much about Fairleigh Dickinson polling.

So, the DailyKos poll showing Christie ahead by 1 shocked me to say the least.  I don't know what is going on with these pollsters but they have been so varied that we don't have a clear picture heading into election day.

I'm going to write my longest most serious post here.  This is not a small feat and will probably be one of few times that I do this so you guys should read it...or don't read it and sue me in fantasy elections I don't care.

NYTimes Poll-Corzine +3.

Speaks for itself...the NYTimes is the same pollster that showed Obama up by 11% or 15% at different times in 2008.  I don't trust them and nobody here should.  Somebody give me a good reason to trust them and I will.

Suffolk Poll-Corzine +9

OK...does anybody even question that this poll is a huge outlier.  What's up with the 16 poll choices?

GQR-Democracy Corps-Corzine +5

Carville has consistently shown Corzine performing better throughout this entire race starting back in August when this pollster entered the field in NJ.  Additionally, Carville has donated a substantial amount to Corzine's reelection campaign.  Can you say conflict of interest?!

Qunnipiac-Corzine +5

Check out the internals-basically Christie loses a bit of Republicans, Corzine gains in Democrats, Christie increases his lead on indies from 11 to 15...and falls 6 points to be behind by 5 points.  What?  Oversampling Democrats OR are Democrats actually this enthusiastic?  Out of all the polls showing Corzine ahead, this could be the one that has the most substance despite their change in methodology so close to the election

Rutgers-Corzine +3

Yeah I'm not even going to waste time on this one.

POLLS THAT HAVE CHRISTIE LEADING

You didn't think I was going to leave the Republican out did you??  

Rasmussen Reports-Christie +3

OK-looks good but they never release their internals.  Or do they?  If not, what's up with that Scotty?!  Also, more often then that, Rasmussen tends to overestimate Republicans in races.

SurveyUSA-TIED

Honestly, I don't follow these guys but nice internals unlike Rasmussen.  I read today they may have a Republican bias.  Do they??

DailyKos-Christie +1!?!?

Amazing to say the least.  They also had Obama killing McCain throughout the election but then manipulated the numbers at the end to save face.  I think they actually fudge numbers and their poll samples and internals are wack!

PPP-Christie +4

Hands down, these are the best guys out there polling NJ.  Great internals...great LV screens...almost perfect.  I have no problems with them.  They may be a Democratic pollster but they don't manipulate numbers because they are ETHICAL.




OK, so we have all these polls with all these flaws and biased ways...I say Rasmussen and PPP are to be trusted the most and it is not because they show Christie in the lead.  PPP is very open about what they do and Rasmussen is skilled at polling NJ but they did drop a dud in the 2006 Senate race.  OOPS guess we can only trust PPP...NOT.  Point of long post: these polls sucks.  I have no idea who's going to win.  I wrote this because I was tired of not seeing anybody go in depth about this but mainly because I wanted to point out the highly questionable nature of the polls that show Corzine pulling away.  Come on you guys, we have one set of polls going in one direction and another going in another direction.  I really hope on Monday there's a whole new set of polls and they are unified but I doubt it.

[East Coast Republican]

This reweighting stuff you apply to every poll is interesting.

I remember you used to do the same trick to the early polls from Virginia back in the summer.  'If we reweight Deeds is ahead.'  It's like you just say those things to further your favorite candidate in a race.

Kos is a horrible poster and I'm not going to accept their numbers as the final say in this race or your 'more likely' splits.  If this keeps up for the next couple of days we may all have to just see what's going to happen on election day.  If there's one thing about this race so far, it's that more likely splits have been the exception and not the norm.

[East Coast Republican]

New Strategic Vision poll out:

Christie: 49%
Corzine: 39%
Daggett: 6%
Undecided: 6%

Below are the results of a three-day poll in the state of New Jersey. Results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in New Jersey, aged 18+, and conducted October 28-30, 2009 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_103109.htm

GARBAGE!
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_092409.htm

Christie 46%
Corzine 38%
Daggett 8%
Undecided 8%

Tender Branson got the numbers wrong.  STILL GARBAGE.  JUST LIKE DEMOCRACY CORPS EXCEPT WITH A RIGHT BENT.

[East Coast Republican]

Oh look!  That poll really is from September! 

SO where is Tender Branson getting this POLL?  He made it up didn't he?

[East Coast Republican]

Wow.

[East Coast Republican]

Interesting thing happened to me when I was going to the polls.  I asked 30-40 people who they voted for and many of them said Daggett and Christie and few said Corzine.  I think Daggett might actually take 8% + if this is happening in other areas.  

Where did you vote?  Is the turnout higher than usual?

[East Coast Republican]

Well, based on simple arithmetic, he actually doesn't need any more undecided voters.

...

And based on basic...oh...common sense...some of us realize Christie doesn't have 50% of voters definitely supporting him. Why the hell can't you understand this?

Okay, then Corzine doesn't have 40% definitely supporting him. Whats your point?

I never said he did. Then again, I'm not really the one holding up the poll as proof of anything.

Phil, you're wrong.

Yes, that guy above you was/is dead wrong about Pennsylvania.  People who thought President Bush even had a chance at Jersey in 2004 were smoking a little too much GOP weed.  The numbers just weren't there to result in any plausible victory and Bush only lead in one (I believe) poll and was tied in another in july/august...he never even had a real lead in contrast to Pennsylvania.

Now, your prissy 'Waaa Christie has no chance look at the pollssss the polllssss!'

Ummm, I am looking at the polls and Christie is holding strong and Corzine is staying in the same place IF NOT getting weaker.  So Corzine climbed into the 40s.  NOOOOO REALLY?!  Sound the freaking fire alarm!  If Christie breaking 50% is due to a primary bounce, did it ever occur to you that the same reasoning could be applied to Corzine's impassioned speech to NJ Democrats?  Ya see, your extremely flawed reasoning could go either way but there certainly is one thing that is true: Christie is in a remarkably strong position to kick this tax czar out of office.  

Oh and I expect Corzine to break into the 40s as the election gets closer.  A little information on polls: candidate support increases as elections draw near...duh!  Christie and Corzine's numbers are both going up but guess who's keeping pace with Corzine's gains and increasing on them in other polls?  Yup....Chris Christie.  Jersey is a blue state but those other elections you keep referring to are not the rule for all future elections in Jersey.  We got a governor with support in the 30s, negatives in the 50s.  The only downfall for Christie is that his 'no opinion' stands at 46%.  SO, I do expect this race to get significantly closer but I don't expect it to result in a sudden Democratic swing of 15% between now and election day.  REPEAT: I DO NOT THINK CORZINE WILL WIN BY 10 OR MORE POINTS.  If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong but at least im using educated guesses to predict how the race will turn out.  You speak as if Christie's defeat is bound to happen but as I said, those past situations had completely different poll numbers/negative/approval numbers and you know this.  Your talk of eventual defeat is ridiculous and at the very worst extremely ignorant.

On a final note, I'm not pleased to see some of the so-called analyses from experienced members on this site.  People here the other day were calling Bergen and Passaic for Lonegan...and I think whoever said that actually still lived in Jersey.  Anybody who has lived in Jersey a looong time shouldve known that Bergen and Passaic weren't going for Lonegan-there is a different breed of Republicanism in those counties and known Lonegan didn't cater to those kind even though he's in Bergen.

This concludes my newbie rant.  I just couldn't stand to see Phil continuously tear down great arguments in favor of Christie with his very weak arguments.  Do your worst with my argument Phillip!

I'll be sure to bump this rambling nonsense after the election. Thanks.

Oh, and it's "Philip," by the way.

Where are you Phillip?  Why didn't you bump the post?  Apologize for being rude to me Phillip.  Admit that this rambling nonsense wasn't nonsense at all.

[East Coast Republican]

Oh and KeystonePhil, are you done having a mental spaz out/meltdown over your belief that Lonegan was somehow going to upset Christie?

:-)

Just saw this after reviewing all four of your posts (three of which included attacks on me. Hmmm).

I never had a mental "spaz out" or meltdown. I never flat out said that Lonegan was going to upset Christie. I said if turnout was horrific enough, it was possible and it looked pretty bad at points during the day.

How you like that Phillip with TWO Ls?

More ten year olds on the forum, I see.

And, yes, I'll bump it regardless. I admit when I'm wrong. I'm sure you won't be around to do the same.

Oh but I AM still here.  Looks like you're the one who isn't here.

[East Coast Republican]

I would have done it whether or not he was still here and you know it's true Mechman.  You know it's true.

We both agreed we'd bump it after the election and whoever was wrong would have to own up.  Where is confident Phillip now?

That's right: nowhere to be found.  Face it: a newbie, in his first 10 posts on this forum, called out a veteran member and won.

[East Coast Republican]

I would have done it whether or not he was still here and you know it's true Mechman.  You know it's true.

We both agreed we'd bump it after the election and whoever was wrong would have to own up.  Where is confident Phillip now?

That's right: nowhere to be found.  Face it: a newbie, in his first 10 posts on this forum, called out a veteran member and won.

Go away you idiotic troll. No likes you. Not even me.

I'm not about to take advice from someone who isn't even old enough to vote and who fails at all political arguments.

[East Coast Republican]

Ohh I think I hit a nerve.

I'm sorry.  You speak like someone who learned from their parents to hate all gun control and those that don't follow religion.  Your talking points can be copied verbatim from redstate.com or Sarah Palin's twitter.  You don't think for yourself; you have other Conservative ideologues think for you.  Too bad the ones I suspect do the thinking for you are totally out of touch with what this country is actually about.  You are nothing but a huge hack for the ultra right.

You do real Conservatism a great injustice.