2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[ChrisJG777]

Is it too early to say "Bye bye Corzine!" yet?  Or does he still have a chance? 

[CARLHAYDEN]

Is it too early to say "Bye bye Corzine!" yet?  Or does he still have a chance? 

Look, its New Jersey.

So, don't count Corzine out yet.

[ChrisJG777]

Is it too early to say "Bye bye Corzine!" yet?  Or does he still have a chance? 

Look, its New Jersey.

So, don't count Corzine out yet.

Well, stranger things have happened.

[Tender Branson]

Will Rasmussen release final polls on NJ and VA today or not ?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Will Rasmussen release final polls on NJ and VA today or not ?

At this point, I'm guessing no new Ras polls will be forthcoming.  But if they do hit, you can be sure that they'll be up here within about 10 minutes. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

For those who want to follow the New Jersey race tonight, I'm making a standardized county-by-county list of how Chris Christie needs to perform in each to run even with Corzine based on the 2005 returns.  It should help tell whether or not Christie is running ahead or behind Corzine in the early returns should we get a lopsidedly Republican or Democratic county in.

[Zarn]

I did not vote, yet. Oh noes!!!!

Can I make it in time?

Will Christie lose by one vote?

Will I stop asking stupid questions?

Did Tender leave the oven on?

Find out all of this and more... at some point... later... maybe.

[Tender Branson]

Did Tender leave the oven on?

If you think that I will burn down my house in the event that Corzine loses, you are dead wrong.

[Zarn]

It's already burned down, isn't it?

*Has fulfilled his obligation as a citizen*

[Rowan]

I voted.

[Rowan]

Interesting.

http://www.politickernj.com/max/34752/street-level-newark-update

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Interesting.

http://www.politickernj.com/max/34752/street-level-newark-update

I hear that stuff every year, and usually on PoliticsNJ.  If those Obama voters are actually coming out, then they're doing all right.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

In the raw, two-party vote, Jon Corzine beat Doug Forrester by 10.8%. I added this 10.8% to the Republican performance in each county, so you can get some sense of a baseline at what a "close" race would look like.

The adjusted two-party vote totals to get a 50/50 result:
Atlantic, R +0.4%
Bergen, D +2.9%
Burlington, R +5.5%
Camden, D +15.3%
Cape May, R +16.7%
Cumberland, D +8.0%
Essex, D +37.5%
Gloucester, R +0.2%
Hudson, D +43.7%
Hunterdon, R +40.2%
Mercer, D +7.8%
Middlesex, D +6.8%
Monmouth, R +19.3%
Morris, R +25.8%
Ocean, R +23.9%
Passaic, D +8.8%
Salem, R +8.5%
Somerset, R +20.8%
Sussex, R +36.8%
Union, D +11.0%
Warren, R +33.0%

Of course, those 10.8 points won't be spread evenly.  When Christie Whitman won statewide by 1%, she carried Mercer by 6%, lost Middlesex by 0.6%, and carried Passaic by 8%. (Florio ran much stronger in South Jersey, his congressional base.)

[Rowan]

“FWIW, as of noon, trusted source says total turnout in GOP & swing districts in NJ is significantly outpacing turnout in Democrat districts.”

http://twitter.com/jimgeraghty/status/5398492680

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Oh man.  I'm getting so excited.  I want this race to be either as close as possible, so I can see what a modern-day 50/50 race looks like; or I want this race to be a GOP blowout so I can see where all those Republicans-only-under-duress live.

[Zarn]

Oh man.  I'm getting so excited.  I want this race to be either as close as possible, so I can see what a modern-day 50/50 race looks like; or I want this race to be a GOP blowout so I can see where all those Republicans-only-under-duress live.

Corzine peeing himself in a blowout wouldn't be satisfying?

What about those smug about the 'fact' that only the Dems can win NJ?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Oh man.  I'm getting so excited.  I want this race to be either as close as possible, so I can see what a modern-day 50/50 race looks like; or I want this race to be a GOP blowout so I can see where all those Republicans-only-under-duress live.

Corzine peeing himself in a blowout wouldn't be satisfying?

What about those smug about the 'fact' that only the Dems can win NJ?

Eh. I really don't despise Corzine, I just think he's a bad and disappointing governor.  There are some Democrats I'd LOVE to see lose (almost all of whom are in Bergen), but otherwise, I'm more fascinated with the mechanics of the state's voters than anything else.

(But yes, there would be some joy in seeing that "NEW JERSY IS RETHUG FOOLS GOLD" line that keeps getting uttered with an irritating wink and nod in Democratic circles, without shame in accepting that there are so many horrible candidates they forced on the public who wrecked the state and should have lost on their first attempt.)


FYI, the Christie campaign has taken the State Democratic Party to court to stop the robocalls, calling them an illegal in-kind contribution.

[rbt48]

In the raw, two-party vote, Jon Corzine beat Doug Forrester by 10.8%. I added this 10.8% to the Republican performance in each county, so you can get some sense of a baseline at what a "close" race would look like.

The adjusted two-party vote totals to get a 50/50 result:
Atlantic, R +0.4%
Bergen, D +2.9%
Burlington, R +5.5%
Camden, D +15.3%
Cape May, R +16.7%
Cumberland, D +8.0%
Essex, D +37.5%
Gloucester, R +0.2%
Hudson, D +43.7%
Hunterdon, R +40.2%
Mercer, D +7.8%
Middlesex, D +6.8%
Monmouth, R +19.3%
Morris, R +25.8%
Ocean, R +23.9%
Passaic, D +8.8%
Salem, R +8.5%
Somerset, R +20.8%
Sussex, R +36.8%
Union, D +11.0%
Warren, R +33.0%

Of course, those 10.8 points won't be spread evenly.  When Christie Whitman won statewide by 1%, she carried Mercer by 6%, lost Middlesex by 0.6%, and carried Passaic by 8%. (Florio ran much stronger in South Jersey, his congressional base.)

This is really great work.  I look forward to seeing your updates tonight.

Does anyone have links for NJ, VA, and NY returns tonight?

[YankeeFan007]

Interesting thing happened to me when I was going to the polls.  I asked 30-40 people who they voted for and many of them said Daggett and Christie and few said Corzine.  I think Daggett might actually take 8% + if this is happening in other areas. 

[Sam Spade]

Interesting thing happened to me when I was going to the polls.  I asked 30-40 people who they voted for and many of them said Daggett and Christie and few said Corzine.  I think Daggett might actually take 8% + if this is happening in other areas. 

Well, it's unscientific (to say the least), but out of curiosity, where are you located?

[East Coast Republican]

Interesting thing happened to me when I was going to the polls.  I asked 30-40 people who they voted for and many of them said Daggett and Christie and few said Corzine.  I think Daggett might actually take 8% + if this is happening in other areas.  

Where did you vote?  Is the turnout higher than usual?

[YankeeFan007]

Well, it's unscientific (to say the least), but out of curiosity, where are you located?

Yeah, I know it isn't.  I live in Paramus.  I think its going to be close.  

[YankeeFan007]

Where did you vote?  Is the turnout higher than usual?

I would say turnout is normal, but this was at 11:15 so everyone could still be in work.  My polling place never gets crowded, but I have to tell you everyone I talked to seemed displeased after voting. 

[Sam Spade]

Gotcha.  Cool.

[Eraserhead]

Are any blacks showing up?