Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Vepres]

Excuse me, but this poll says that 15% of Obama voters stated that they will vote McDonnell while 9% of McCain voters said they will vote Deeds.

According to my poor math, that should result to a draw and certainly not a blow-out for either candidate.

The poll sample is 52% McCain, 43% Obama. One of the many reasons why it's a joke poll.

Well it is an off-year election, less enthusiasm among blacks and the youth.

RCP pegs the race at +6% McDonnell, sounds about right, maybe a point or two high.

[Vepres]

Obama has a 57% approval according to the WaPo poll, so I'm not too concerned.

High black turnout won't happen, high youth turnout isn't likely, Deeds doesn't have Obama's coattails to help him.

[Vepres]

How large was each group?

Rasmussen doesn't release those numbers.

Big shocker

Since the Presidential Election I haven't been able to find Rasmussen group numbers.  Anyone who trusts them is making a big mistake.  Some of there polls are far outliers to the right  like the Presidential Approval rating.  They've had Obamas approval rating tiedwith his dissaproval rating for 2 monhs.  All other polls ahve Obama's approval rating 8-24% above the dissaproval rating.  That means that they have at least a 16% difference with all polls.

They're good for elections, bad for approvals.

[Vepres]

Deeds is just digging himself further and further in.

Well, I hope he loses too. Hopefully Virginia Dems learn a lesson and next time don't nominate another blue dog idiot just because he got a newspaper endorsement.

This reminds me of Republicans saying McCain lost because he wasn't conservative enough

[Vepres]

My final overview for the House of Delegates:

http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5786

Brief version: not good for the Democrats.

Interesting read.

[Vepres]

McDonnell is won Fairfax City and is clinging to a small lead in Fairfax County. Wow. Crossed 60% in Loudon County too. What a massacre.

It's inhumane!