MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Meijer out

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Lol to all the people who believe richboy free trader can win in Michigan in all places.
Being anti-Trump doesn't necessarily mean electable, especially when it comes to being a traditional Republican in a place where traditional Republicans don't do well (see:
 McCormick, David)

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https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1627106483350429696
Yeah, something makes me think this seat isn't terribly likely to flip.

DePerno should have won.

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I have to say, I have a lot of trepidation about this. Slotkin defending Manchin and Sinema gives me a lot of pause.

What do you mean? She hasn’t voted like them in the house.

She has publicly said stuff like it in the past.

As you said, Slotkin hasn't really voted like a Manchin or a Sinema, so I'm not opposed to her like I was Lamb. I'm not thrilled about her candidacy and would prefer another candidate, but if I were in Michigan I'd vote for her. Kind of that odd space with Spanberger and the others.

Slotkin is literally more moderate than Lamb is.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Just because a brain-dead Q boomer like Mastriano did poorly, it doesn't mean GOP leadership should push for billionaire poor-hating banker elites to run in the rust belt.
Just ask Romney how he did

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Tuttle is not great, but the alternative here isn't some stellar candidate, it's someone like Tudor Dixon.

Dixon (who ran more as a DeSantis Republican than a Trump Republican) may be weak but she'd do better than Tuttle.

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He's not great, but Craig is the best Republicans have in this terrible field.

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I suspect that in 2024, we'll see a significant amount of Trump-Democratic Senate votes. It would explain 2022 very well despite Biden's low approvals. Republican resources will be spread thin trying to attack a big map, and Biden is significantly less popular than downballot Democrats.

It isn't even impossible that Trump wins with a Democratic Senate (though it's much harder because if Trump wins, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate).

I don’t think there are a lot of people who like downballot Democrats who would even consider voting for Trump. He has zero appeal to anyone who didn’t already vote Republican in 2022.

The problem is Biden is a lot more unpopular than downballot Democrats. A lot of people (particularly young, city people who have seen skyrocketing mortgages/rent) who voted for downballot Democrats might hold their nose and vote against Biden, or sit out.

That isn’t true at all. I can’t imagine why voters would punish Biden for economic discontent yet spare downballot Dems.

They did that in 2022. Polls consistently showed Trump outrunning Oz for example. Democratic Senate candidates often won about half of the people who somewhat disapprove of Biden. I doubt Biden wins that much.

Or maybe - just maybe - somewhat disapproving of Biden just means "eh im not that happy with Biden, but I'm not certainly not voting for any Republican right now"

That's not really true. Voters generally approved of Democratic incumbents (Kelly, Cortez-Masto, etc.) by wide margins, and in fact those incumbents underperformed their favorability gap with their Republican opponents (who often had favorabilities over 20 points worse).

However Biden is NOT popular and his favorability gap between him and Trump is WAY less than the major candidates in 2022.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I suspect that in 2024, we'll see a significant amount of Trump-Democratic Senate votes. It would explain 2022 very well despite Biden's low approvals. Republican resources will be spread thin trying to attack a big map, and Biden is significantly less popular than downballot Democrats.

It isn't even impossible that Trump wins with a Democratic Senate (though it's much harder because if Trump wins, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate).

I don’t think there are a lot of people who like downballot Democrats who would even consider voting for Trump. He has zero appeal to anyone who didn’t already vote Republican in 2022.

The problem is Biden is a lot more unpopular than downballot Democrats. A lot of people (particularly young, city people who have seen skyrocketing mortgages/rent) who voted for downballot Democrats might hold their nose and vote against Biden, or sit out.

That isn’t true at all. I can’t imagine why voters would punish Biden for economic discontent yet spare downballot Dems.

They did that in 2022. Polls consistently showed Trump outrunning Oz for example. Democratic Senate candidates often won about half of the people who somewhat disapprove of Biden. I doubt Biden wins that much.

Or maybe - just maybe - somewhat disapproving of Biden just means "eh im not that happy with Biden, but I'm not certainly not voting for any Republican right now"

That's not really true. Voters generally approved of Democratic incumbents (Kelly, Cortez-Masto, etc.) by wide margins, and in fact those incumbents underperformed their favorability gap with their Republican opponents (who often had favorabilities over 20 points worse).

However Biden is NOT popular and his favorability gap between him and Trump is WAY less than the major candidates in 2022.

And that doesn’t mean those people won’t come around to him. Trump won over a lot of people who didn’t like him in 2020.

And one other thing is that Biden may not be popular but he isn’t really hated the way Trump is.

I'm not saying those people may not come around to him. I'm saying that Democrat incumbent Senators underperformed their approvals significantly, which means that there is no evidence yet that Biden WILL win over voters who disapprove of him. I'm not saying it won't happen, it may even be likely, but 2022 was not evidence for it, unlike many believe.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I suspect that in 2024, we'll see a significant amount of Trump-Democratic Senate votes. It would explain 2022 very well despite Biden's low approvals. Republican resources will be spread thin trying to attack a big map, and Biden is significantly less popular than downballot Democrats.

It isn't even impossible that Trump wins with a Democratic Senate (though it's much harder because if Trump wins, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate).

I don’t think there are a lot of people who like downballot Democrats who would even consider voting for Trump. He has zero appeal to anyone who didn’t already vote Republican in 2022.

The problem is Biden is a lot more unpopular than downballot Democrats. A lot of people (particularly young, city people who have seen skyrocketing mortgages/rent) who voted for downballot Democrats might hold their nose and vote against Biden, or sit out.

That isn’t true at all. I can’t imagine why voters would punish Biden for economic discontent yet spare downballot Dems.

They did that in 2022. Polls consistently showed Trump outrunning Oz for example. Democratic Senate candidates often won about half of the people who somewhat disapprove of Biden. I doubt Biden wins that much.

Or maybe - just maybe - somewhat disapproving of Biden just means "eh im not that happy with Biden, but I'm not certainly not voting for any Republican right now"

That's not really true. Voters generally approved of Democratic incumbents (Kelly, Cortez-Masto, etc.) by wide margins, and in fact those incumbents underperformed their favorability gap with their Republican opponents (who often had favorabilities over 20 points worse).

However Biden is NOT popular and his favorability gap between him and Trump is WAY less than the major candidates in 2022.

And that doesn’t mean those people won’t come around to him. Trump won over a lot of people who didn’t like him in 2020.

And one other thing is that Biden may not be popular but he isn’t really hated the way Trump is.

I'm not saying those people may not come around to him. I'm saying that Democrat incumbent Senators underperformed their approvals significantly, which means that there is no evidence yet that Biden WILL win over voters who disapprove of him. I'm not saying it won't happen, it may even be likely, but 2022 was not evidence for it, unlike many believe.

Good chance incumbent D Senators approval will go down once campaign season kicks in, all the attack ads start, and people revert more to their partisan corners.

Generally though, results should converge pretty close to Presidential partisanship; approval can help give a sense of who outruns and underruns the Pres ticket though.

For instance several polls have shown Jon Tester's approval to be well above 50% even 60%. I think everyone here would agree it's extremely unlikely if not impossible Tester gets 60% of the vote. However, most on here also agree Tester will outrun Biden by at least a few points, in part because of his strong approvals.

I'm not talking about hypotheticals, I'm saying what did happen in 2022 is that incumbent D Senators underrated their approval significantly, meaning that voters who disapproved of both candidates overwhelmingly backed Republicans in 2022.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

James Craig will win the primary

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

James Craig gave his full support to the unions today. Mike Rogers would NEVER.
Craig needs to be the nominee.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

James Craig gave his full support to the unions today. Mike Rogers would NEVER.
Craig needs to be the nominee.

Do you think he's learned anything from the signature debacle?

The signature debacle was just incompetence. I'm sure he'll hire more competent campaign staff this time.

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https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1707423846867804542?t=vWy7891BXmODGP1...
I assume he thinks his presidential campaign raised his value and profile...but it really didn't.  At least he's from Michigan, but the signature issue from last year doesn't spark confidence he can go anywhere significant.

I don't know why people are making such a big deal about the signature thing. No voters will care.

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https://twitter.com/chiefjamescraig/status/1709170191152603449?s=46&t=-r8JGl...

Literally the perfect candidate for the seat. Way better than DeSantis-fan anti-union carpetbagger Mike Rogers.

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DOA in the primary

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

DOA in the primary

Not really. He has a chance of sneaking through a clown car.

He couldn't win a primary in Grand Rapids where his name is royalty. He won't get more than 15% of the primary vote, even a clown car can't help him.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

So we will now have a Republican Primary between Mike Rogers and Peter Meijer. Fantastic Outcome as both can give Slotkin a real run for her money this fall.

Both Rogers and Meijer are terrible candidates with no chance of winning (especially Meijer).
Without Craig in the race, I'd put this off the map.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Ngl I'm hoping for Amash to win

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I support Slotkin unless Amash becomes the nominee