2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

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I don't think Luttrell is safe yet. He's only at 52.7% with 84% reporting, and the outstanding ballots don't favor him. Harris contains the vast majority of uncounted votes and so far it's not been favorable territory for him, and every other county is >99% in.
It's a tossup imo.

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What happened with Taylor? It can't just be his votes to certify the election/establish a commission because Tony Gonzales voted the exact same way on both things and he's totally fine.

He's getting a fair bit of new territory I think, plus A-tier challenger, also he's not really entrenched? I guess that's the best explanation I can gather.

Funnily enough the person who he's facing in the runoff (Collin County Judge Keith Self) is the person who swore him into Congress when he first was elected.

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Something interesting to note here is just how anti-establishment primary voters were today. While (as expected) popular Trump-endorsed Governor Abbott cruised to renomination with over 60% of the vote (still his worst performance), representatives didn't do as well.
In 2020, only 2 incumbent Republican Texan representatives won less than 80% of their primary vote. In 2022 10 did.

Dan Crenshaw, Van Taylor, Pat Fallon, Jake Ellzey, Kay Granger, Pete Sessions, Tony Gonzales, Michael Burgess, Michael Cloud and John Carter all won less than 80% of their primary vote, 5 won less than 70, 2 less than 60 and one (Taylor) failed to reach a majority.
This might actually be a record, either way though clearly Republican voters are in a much more anti-establishment mood than usual. I think this could bare very well for other primary challengers to incumbents.

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2018: 1.54 million Republican, 1.02 million Democratic
2020: 1.93 million Republican, 1.87 million Democratic
2022: ~1.97 million Republican, ~1.11 million Democratic (based on an estimate of outstanding votes)

Turnout isn't super high, but it's still higher than it's been in any midterm. Part of that is population growth, but part of it is that turnout isn't going back to 2014 levels. Republicans are going to be anywhere from 62-65% of the total primary vote, very much lining up with the early vote, if anything a little more Republican. That is devastating for Democrats and doesn't bode well for them in November.

And obviously, this was a region to watch for many reasons, but many interesting tidbits out of the Rio Grande. First, turnout in Republican primaries is even higher than it was in 2020 presidential primaries, despite overall turnout being about as high as the non-presidential primary and slightly lower than the presidential. Second, note how well the non-O'Rourke Democratic candidates are doing in those counties. Voting for non-mainline candidates who are largely unknown (some could call it "protest voting") in a party primary is often a sign that those people have little interest in the modern party. Both of these things confirm that the RGV is likely to trend Republican, a continuation of 2020 trends.

So we went from R+20 in 2018 to R+28 last night, which is... not good. I mean, given the environment in 2018 and 2020, it's not *terrible*, but still not what you want to see if Dems want to make *any* inroads in TX

I will say though, that a shift 8 points to the right from 2018 to 2022 means it is trending left pretty rapidly compared to the national environment.

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DDHQ shows TX-08 at only 89% in with Luttrell at 52.1%. The only ballots left to count according to them come from Harris County, where Luttrell is performing terribly. If this is right there's a chance this could still be a runoff. However all the other sites are showing near 100% of the vote in. Why the discrepancy?

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DDHQ shows TX-08 at only 89% in with Luttrell at 52.1%. The only ballots left to count according to them come from Harris County, where Luttrell is performing terribly. If this is right there's a chance this could still be a runoff. However all the other sites are showing near 100% of the vote in. Why the discrepancy?

Possibly they stopped updating at some point last night.

Upon looking further that doesn't seem to be true. DDHQ has more votes counted than other sites. They might be predicting more votes left than others?

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I'm still confused as to whether DDHQ or NYT is better for watching election results come in

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I do not see a path for Mandel here. It's Vance or Dolan.

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Vance is overperforming with ED vote and is only expanding his lead. Dolan has to do EXTREMELY well in election day vote to potentially win.

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1521651670270283778
Dave calls it

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Just a couple of Notes
Theresa Gavarone is leading to take on Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D).

Madison Gesiotto Gilbert is leading in OH-13 (which is critical for us to take the House back) to take on Democrat Emilia Sykes.

Houchin is leading in IN-9 to replace Hollingsworth.

GOP Women doing well once again

Firebrand populist JR Majewski (who Trump shouted out at a recent rally) has overtaken Gavarone in OH-09.

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A lot of Gavarone's best counties are already in. Majewski has a real path to victory.

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Erin Houchin has won the IN-9 GOP Primary and will replace Rep. Trey Hollingsworth in November joining Rep. Victoria Spartz (IN-5) and Rep. Jackie Walorski as 3rd GOP Women in the IN Congressional House Delegation.

Jennifer-Ruth Green has won her nomination and may win her general election too, which will make her 2nd Republican black woman elected to Congress (and the first Trump supporter).

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A lot of Gavarone's best counties are already in. Majewski has a real path to victory.

Majewski would almost certainly lose to Kaptur while Gavarone would win. Why can't you accept that? Majewski is just a massive bully.

LOL. NW Ohio is white working class areas, which is why Kaptur overperformed there, she's good on trade. Gavarone is Romney-lite who only appeals to country club conservatives. Majewski is a right-wing Fetterman who can appeal to Obama-Trump voters.

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Majewski's lead up to 4.2% with 64% in. Riedel only 0.9% behind Gavarone.

What probably helped Majewski is that Gavarone and Riedel were spending hundreds of thousands on attack ads against each other while Majewski wasn't even targeted.

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Trumbull & Mahoning Counties are very important. Dem Senate Nominee Tim Ryan needs these Counties to pull off a Victory. Very, Very, Very ominous signs for him.

He won't win. It's just a matter of the margin.

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Lucas County (where almost all the outstanding votes are) is coming in very strong for Majewski in OH-09. I feel confident in saying that J. R. Majewski has won the GOP nomination for OH-09.

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GOP Woman Power
https://twitter.com/CLFSuperPAC/status/1521684778981986304

Lol why are you obsessed about "GOP women". Who cares? Let's get good candidates in office instead of focusing on irrelevant things.

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Majewski pledged to not support McCarthy for Speaker, so I wonder if he will get much funding from the NRCC

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GOP Woman Power
https://twitter.com/CLFSuperPAC/status/1521684778981986304

GOP Woman Power
https://twitter.com/CLFSuperPAC/status/1521684778981986304

Lol why are you obsessed about "GOP women". Who cares? Let's get good candidates in office instead of focusing on irrelevant things.

You are consistently endorsing or pulling for bad Candidates like Majewski!

Yeah, no, I don't back the idea of "We need as many Republicans as possible and Republican Women too!" because you just reek of electabro basement caucus. I'd rather have a House Majority of 10 with the RIGHT People (ie, great policy on trade, immigration, the family, election integrity, etc) than have a House Majority of 60 with 30 Mitt Romneys. If that's the case, tell me what's the difference between Democrats and Republicans outside of Muh Tax Cutzzz!

So yeah, Simp, leave. We don't need you in the party if you're going to be worshipping at the alter of women because women.

Exactly. These "muh Republican women" people don't even care about women, they just care about 'elooctability', like Stefanik. I support GOP women. I support Kari Lake, MTG, Laura Loomer, Sarah Palin and Janice McGeachin, but you never see the "muh GOP women" people promote those GOP women.

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I think the more Trump-endorsed candidates win their primaries, the more confident Trump will feel in endorsing more risky candidates or getting involved in House primaries he otherwise would have left alone.

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Being beautiful is a sign of virtue. Appearance is the first thing I look for in a candidate.

Then I can take a guess which candidate you support in the Alabama Senate race...

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I've said this a few times before. Trump's endorsement means more in federal races.

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I had to work late tonight so I wasn't able to follow the coverage: any surprises?

Not really. Mooney overwhelmingly won against McKinley and Pillen narrowly won against Herbster.

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Calling NE-GOV R for Pillen!! TRUMP GOES DOWN IN DEFEAT!!!

That is one Race Trump lost. He will win many more with his Candidates. Oz is going to crush it if the E-Day Vote is as strong as they were for Vance in Ohio & Herbster in NE.

Mooney crushing McKinley should be a big warning sign for RINOS like you.

Evnen won easily despite criticizing The Big Lie. Bacon won overwhelmingly despite voting for BIF. And the Pillen Victory. Yeah, I know Adrian Smith won, but he faced little opposition. Nebraska rejected Trump tonight.

West Virginia was a victory for Trump tonight, yes. But Nebraska was a clear defeat.

Evnev got under 50% and only won with a divided opposition. Bacon's challenger wasn't endorsed by Trump.
And like I said, Herbster was a terrible candidate with the entire Nebraska GOP opposing him and serious allegations of him groping Republican state senators. And yet he still almost won.
Nebraska did not "reject Trump"