PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

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Walker has allegations and will win the primary and GE.
Parnell will win the nomination and GE as well.
Mald and sperg liberals

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Democrats thinking populist rural voters will vote for Fetterman just because he looks like a big tough guy is just as stupid as Republicans thinking they'll get 25% of the black vote if they nominate Candace Owens for president

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Democrats thinking populist rural voters will vote for Fetterman just because he looks like a big tough guy is just as stupid as Republicans thinking they'll get 25% of the black vote if they nominate Candace Owens for president

Well, Youngkin got close to 25% of the black vote and he's white.

Exactly. It's not about looking like a big tough guy or being black, people don't vote on what you look like.

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Don't get your hopes up for an "electable moderate". Trump will endorse someone else, whether it be Scott Perry entering the race or some other Trump sychophant.

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This is only a rumor I'm personally hearing from GOP insiders I know and trust, but said sources that tell me this are generally pretty reliable. People online are saying this too and certain tabloids are hyping this up, but again- I trust the insider sources, and not the tabloids.

Apparently he could specifically  specifically announce this on Hannity in the next few days. I still wouldn't get too cocky to bet on it, but it honestly seems ever more likely by each passing day.

Announcing on Hannity rather than Tucker leads me to believe he'll run as a traditional muh economy muh socialism Republican. Ugh, hopefully someone better wins the primary.

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I'm still shocked that Dr. Oz is a Republican and that he has political ambitions.

He's a very moderate Republican who has been friends with every GOP nominee since Bush, although he has many Democratic friends too. I don't know why he'd have political ambitions, but I can see why he would.  

He will also probably receive the Trump endorsement, even if he isn't super Trumpian himself.

I wouldn't be surprised if he and Trump had connections from his time in reality TV.

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If Oz campaigns as a Trumpist America First candidate like Walker, I will support him. Not if he's a weak neocon McConnell cuck who just wants tax cuts.

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Dr Oz looks to be running a populist campaign around lowering drug/prescription costs and standing up to the Washington establishment, while still having the appearance of a moderate. That's the best campaign he could possibly run, and with high name recognition he's a shoe-in for the primary and general.
Taking a look at his website, he talks about education and stopping jobs from being shipped to China. Oz is literally the best candidate Republicans could ask for.

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I still think Fetterman will have an easier time defining himself as an outsider than Dr. Oz, if that’s the route this campaign takes.

I doubt the incumbent lieutenant governor can appear to be more of an outsider than a TV show host.

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Hasan Piker is a provocative clown, much like his uncle, who has the electoral politics intelligence of Kyle Kulinski.

Don't disrespect Kyle like that lol. Has anyone is an idiot, Kyle is based.

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It's pretty wild that the most likely nominee before dropped out and now Oz is somewhat likely to be the nominee, despite just moving to PA and having a questionable past politically (like Trump).

If he wins, he'd be the first Republican Muslim Senator, or Republican Muslim in Congress period.

People really need to realize that other GOP candidates like Sands and Rothfus will jump in, and Oz will lose momentum if only because of the inevitable nasty attacks claiming he's a "scary muslim" or something along those lines.

Here's the thing. I had to do some digging before even finding that out. Nobody would know he's a Muslim just by looking at him (or Turkish, for that matter), so I don't think those "nasty attacks" would land even if they're made, of which the likelihood will be overestimated by Democrats who want the anti-Muslim portrayal of Republicans. He's got a populist doctor schtick going for him that I think many base Republican voters will like.

Do you seriously not think being a Muslim hurts you in a Republican primary?

Republicans actually love nominating candidates whose demographics don’t seem to fit with expectations (see: Larry Elder, John James, and many more) precisely so they can have plausible deniability to deflect allegations of bigotry. And it doesn’t hurt that Oz “looks” fairly white, has a name that doesn’t “sound Muslim,” has a white Christian wife, and doesn’t apparently take the religion very seriously. No one will care any more than they cared that Trump was an atheist philanderer. Might be a plus if anything to “troll the libs” by saying “Ee, WE have Muslim support TOO!”

I don't think Trump's an atheist, but it does seem like he's not as devout as he claimed to be during his campaigns. That being said, this thread is about Oz, so I'll just say: I don't think his religious affiliation matters too much electorally. It's not 1960 anymore.

Trump's clearly an atheist, given his personal life, how he is weirded out by the very religious, how he has never talked about God before his presidential run and the fact that he's a New York billionaire playboy.

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My prediction: Fetterman wins the primary, has a slight lead in the general election polling, then loses by 5-7 points to McCormick.

I still have a feeling Oz will win the primary. He seems like a much stronger candidate anyway.

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My prediction: Fetterman wins the primary, has a slight lead in the general election polling, then loses by 5-7 points to McCormick.

I still have a feeling Oz will win the primary. He seems like a much stronger candidate anyway.

Well Oz has been doing jack and I've probably listened to 20 ads calling Oz a RINO at this point since the start of the year and like 1 Oz ad.

The establishment does fear him and is putting a TON of money into trying to stop him, similar to what they're doing to Vance in Ohio (ironic though given McCormick was a way bigger never-Trumper than Vance, and only a year ago too).
Oz putting more of his money into the race in the coming months can do something, honestly Oz isn't the strongest of a primary candidate, but I just can't see McCormick doing very well, he seems like an even more terrible candidate.

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ngl I'm not the biggest Oz fan but this was a really smart ad. Uses his media background to his advantage as an "outsider" and ties himself to Reagan and Trump.
https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1502371264618455042

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I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

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I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

I don't know if it's super obvious but I think we can say he's not going to endorse McCormick.

Trump has been really worried about not picking a losing candidate lately. This primary is clearly a two-man race right now, Sands/Barnette are too far behind for Trump to consider them imo.
Also like I've said before, Oz is Trump's close friend who has been a steadfast supporter since 2016. Just like Walker, this probably means a lot to Trump, even if he isn't "Trumpy" on policy.

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I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

I don't know if it's super obvious but I think we can say he's not going to endorse McCormick.

Trump has been really worried about not picking a losing candidate lately. This primary is clearly a two-man race right now, Sands/Barnette are too far behind for Trump to consider them imo.
Also like I've said before, Oz is Trump's close friend who has been a steadfast supporter since 2016. Just like Walker, this probably means a lot to Trump, even if he isn't "Trumpy" on policy.

Oz very much has some of that Trump-in-2016-primary type of energy as well, which further helps his case.

Definitely. That's why I find it funny how some people are bringing up times from his TV show where he espoused some socially liberal views to "expose him" or whatever. Trump was just as much of a social liberal pre-2016 (and even post-2016 compared to most of the GOP) and voters didn't really care because voters care more about cultural conservatism rather than social conservatism.

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I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

I don't know if it's super obvious but I think we can say he's not going to endorse McCormick.

Trump has been really worried about not picking a losing candidate lately. This primary is clearly a two-man race right now, Sands/Barnette are too far behind for Trump to consider them imo.
Also like I've said before, Oz is Trump's close friend who has been a steadfast supporter since 2016. Just like Walker, this probably means a lot to Trump, even if he isn't "Trumpy" on policy.

Oz very much has some of that Trump-in-2016-primary type of energy as well, which further helps his case.

Definitely. That's why I find it funny how some people are bringing up times from his TV show where he espoused some socially liberal views to "expose him" or whatever. Trump was just as much of a social liberal pre-2016 (and even post-2016 compared to most of the GOP) and voters didn't really care because voters care more about cultural conservatism rather than social conservatism.

Oz possibly getting elected is the closest equivalent we'd have to Trump getting elected in 2016 in quite a while. Media personality with high name rec+faces range of intra-party opponents+defeats them+wins general narrowly against an experienced opponent who has run in multiple elections before (this election is likely to be close either way). Sure, it would be a Senate race and not a presidential one, but the parallels would still be strong.

Definitely. Also his primary opponent/s (McCormick) being backed by the typical "right-wing" of the party despite being much less populist on many issues (immigration, culture war stuff,  trade).
The only difference of course is that Oz isn't leading polls rn.

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I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

I don't know if it's super obvious but I think we can say he's not going to endorse McCormick.

Trump has been really worried about not picking a losing candidate lately. This primary is clearly a two-man race right now, Sands/Barnette are too far behind for Trump to consider them imo.
Also like I've said before, Oz is Trump's close friend who has been a steadfast supporter since 2016. Just like Walker, this probably means a lot to Trump, even if he isn't "Trumpy" on policy.

What I don't get about some of the Trump enthusiasts' criticism of Oz is that almost all of them can be applied to Trump in 2015, but they literally just didn't care back then. Now they want a purist with a squeeky clean history lol. I think you're right in that Trump is not likely to care too much about policy purity and will go for someone who's both likely to win and has his populist style, so most likely Oz.

I think a lot of the "Trumpists" online were Ted Cruz fans back in 2016, because a lot of the criticism against Oz is similar to the talking points Cruz used against Trump back in 2016 (also interesting how McCormick similarly spread around the fake rumor Oz was dropping out). Also explains why Cruz and a lot of the "freedom caucus" types who endorsed him in '16 support McCormick.

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Been looking through 2022 candidates' ads. Republican primary ads are usually so terrible, typical the candidate shooting a gun and claiming they're the "pro-Trump candidate" in a forest/the desert or something with loud music blaring behind them.
Oz's ads are really good (at least compared to everyone else's), you can tell he's from the entertainment industry with how he knows how to work media.

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Saw an article lately praising McCormick and saying that Oz would lose the GE. WTF?
If I think of the perfect foil, the worst opponent for a progressive #populist rural democrat, it would be the owner of the world's largest hedge fund manager who made billions screwing over poor people, is wishy-washy on social issues, is a flip-flopping never-Trumper and is unapologetically pro-free trade and anti-jobs.

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People still pay attention to James Carville? Lol

Anyway, this seat remains a longshot for any Democrat, and the insistence that only one Democrat (always the preferred one of the person speaking) can win and would outperform any other by a ton is tiresome.

A "longshot" is being a bit ridiculous. The environment was only slightly better for Biden/Dems in November and McLaughlin lost by <1 in the SC race. Not to mention, Oz and McCormick are still bottom tier candidates on the GOP side.

I get that it's a red wave year, but the GOP bench on both races is *bad* and that should not be understated.

In a high profile Senate race, I doubt that many who want a Republican Senate will be willing to vote for any Democrat. Maybe Oz would do a bit worse than what I’d expect given the environment, but Democrats winning a race here in a red wave year is hard to imagine, unless the Republican candidate really does crash and burn.

I actually think Oz would do better than a Generic R because of how loved he is by low-info suburban women.

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How’s the republican side? Has Oz more or less locked it up?

Honestly Lean McCormick at the moment. But if Trump endorses Oz he would probably be slightly favored.

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A Fetterman vs McCormick race would be Democrats' best shot at winning this seat.

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Lol you guys are arguing about which guy will lose by 2% to the Republican candidate.