Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Hate to say this, but Beshear seems like a slight favorite now. This is despite Beshear being no different than a generic Democrat, who imposed extremely harsh COVID restrictions.

Ryan Brune's take seems to be Beshear winning by 2, like Kelly and Edwards. That seems about right.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Cameron ended up being a terrible recruit; these tweets and videos are like parody.

I feel like several Republican recruitments in critical races up and down the ballot were a total failure over the last couple of years (see senate 2022, which even Mitch publically admitted and how 2024 is shaping up as well). They blew a ton of actually winnable races by nominating atrocious candidates. And even the ones they won, they were just bailed out by partisan lean and environment.

It looks like they are doing somewhat better in 2024, such as recruiting Jim Justice. I agree that at the moment in  someother states that they're not doing a great job, such as Montana and Ohio.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

There is now a PredictIt market on this race. The odds seem reasonable.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

There is now a PredictIt market on this race. The odds seem reasonable.

I would buy on Cameron. Even if he doesn't win, I'm guessing his odds improve close to Election Day.

Yeah, I’d say that 60/40 is probably closer to where I’d put this, and I’m sure there will at least be moments in which the market will move toward 50/50, even if Beshear ultimately wins.

It was 62/38 when I posted this

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

A gubernational race usually means little in the way of predicting federal races, as polarization is far less salient. This is especially true when a popular incumbent is running, making the race even less predictive, as the popular incumbent usually way overperforms partisanship in a way that's nearly impossible for federal races.

I wouldn't be surprised if Beshear held on to Elliott County in the gubernational race, only for it to vote for Trump by nearly 60 points in 2024.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It is true that popular governors rarely lose, but it’s not impossible that this might be a KS-2022 situation where the state swings 3% or so to the right due to a far less damaged/comically inept Republican opponent. In KS, that wasn’t enough for a GOP win; in KY, it would be.

JBE also did far worse in his reelection bid despite his popularity, going from winning by double digits to winning by 3% — and that was against a similarly "partisan" opponent. Needless to say, such a shift (not that I expect one of this magnitude) would sink Beshear.

So yes, while incumbent governors rarely lose, incumbent Democratic governors in red states have had some very close calls recently — all of them (Bullock, Kelly, JBE) lucked out, but that doesn’t guarantee Beshear will.

Yeah the race is far from a done deal. Still, Beshear is very slightly favored at the moment, which might change.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

In KY I am definitly waiting on the Louisville Courier-Journal Mason-Dixon Poll. Beshear ain't winning by 16 Points like the Emerson Poll is suggesting.

Weird thing about this is Emerson usually leans pretty R.

I would hesitate to project from LA to KY or vice versa given recent history, including the abortion votes in each state which were dramatically different.  I would say tonight increases the probability of a Beshear collapse in EKY, but a lot of that was already baked in.

Emerson hasn't always leaned R for the 2024 cycle: I'm sure this poll is probably underestimating Trump a little.



The topline Trump vs Biden result in this same poll seems to lean a little R though - it shows Trump 55 - Biden 26, which is about R +36 in two-party share.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I have no idea what to think about this race anymore. I wouldn’t be surprised by either side winning by >5.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Noticed this in the NYT article from last week:

As in-person early voting begins on Thursday, officials in both parties in Kentucky say that every private poll of the race has shown Mr. Beshear leading his Republican challenger, Daniel Cameron, the attorney general.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/us/politics/andy-beshear-kentucky-biden.html

Polls could've shifted in the last week, but I do still think Beshear is favored.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Jefferson is low too but they have more people

How does Jefferson compare to rural? I know rural is bad for Cameron right now but if Jefferson is even lower Cameron could still be in the game.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Turnout looks really bad for Cameron. I could see Beshear winning by 5+, and have upped my prediction to Beshear +3.5.