oldtimer
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,381
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« on: September 16, 2023, 12:18:32 PM » |
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Well lets have 2 ways to make an estimate:
A. Subtraction of other parties.
Lets say the Conservatives get 28 and the smaller parties get a bit squeezed.
Reform 5
LD 11
SNP 3
GRN 4
That's 51%
Plus another 1% others
That's 52, give N.I. parties another 2, so 54%
So Labour 46%
B. Comparison to 1997.
If the Con+Reform vote = Con+Goldsmith vote of 1997 = 34%
LD would be weaker than 1997, but Greens and SNP stronger, lets say the combined vote is a tad lower.
That makes Labour only a tad stronger than 1997, lets say 44%.
So Labour ought to get mid 40's.
In terms of seats I would expect Labour to be at around 440, the Conservatives around 140 and the LD and SNP at around 25-35 each.
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