How much of the vote will the British Labour Party get in 2025?

[WalterWhite]

Polls are showing the 2025 British election to be very strong for Labour. How much of the vote will Labour get in the actual election?

[JimJamUK]

Probably less than 40%, given they will be in government during the 2025 local elections.

[WalterWhite]

Probably less than 40%, given they will be in government during the 2025 local elections.

I was going off the assumption that the next British elections would be held in 2025.

[TheTide]

Probably less than 40%, given they will be in government during the 2025 local elections.

I was going off the assumption that the next British elections would be held in 2025.

The next major round of elections is set for May 2024, probably followed by the General Election in the second half of the year.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Probably less than 40%, given they will be in government during the 2025 local elections.

I was going off the assumption that the next British elections would be held in 2025.

The next major round of elections is set for May 2024, probably followed by the General Election in the second half of the year.

Sunak will hold the election as late as possible (i.e. in early 2025). A Christmas campaign would just annoy people and deny his government another month or two in office.

[S019]

Around 45% is my guess

[Antonio the Sixth]

Probably less than 40%, given they will be in government during the 2025 local elections.

I was going off the assumption that the next British elections would be held in 2025.

The next major round of elections is set for May 2024, probably followed by the General Election in the second half of the year.

Sunak will hold the election as late as possible (i.e. in early 2025). A Christmas campaign would just annoy people and deny his government another month or two in office.

That would make the current parliament serve more than 5 years. Is that allowed?

[YL]

Probably less than 40%, given they will be in government during the 2025 local elections.

I was going off the assumption that the next British elections would be held in 2025.

The next major round of elections is set for May 2024, probably followed by the General Election in the second half of the year.

Sunak will hold the election as late as possible (i.e. in early 2025). A Christmas campaign would just annoy people and deny his government another month or two in office.

That would make the current parliament serve more than 5 years. Is that allowed?

The 5 year limit is from the date when the Parliament first met until the date it is dissolved, which means that the interval between General Elections can be up to a little over 5 years.  This has actually happened: the 1997 General Election was 5 years and 22 days after the 1992 one.

That means the dissolution of Parliament has to occur by 17 December 2024.  A General Election occurs 25 working days after the dissolution, which means the last possible date is 28 January 2025; this is a Tuesday, so I suppose Thursday 23 January is the last realistic date.  I still think October 2024 is more likely, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

It remains very likely that the last *practical* date for the GE is December 2024, for reasons already stated. Dragging things through Christmas could drag the Tory share down another point or two.

[TheTide]

Probably less than 40%, given they will be in government during the 2025 local elections.

I was going off the assumption that the next British elections would be held in 2025.

The next major round of elections is set for May 2024, probably followed by the General Election in the second half of the year.

Sunak will hold the election as late as possible (i.e. in early 2025). A Christmas campaign would just annoy people and deny his government another month or two in office.

I don't agree. An election held in January would likely make the NHS the main issue, which is never good for the Tories. Additionally, there are the psychological factors of the cold weather and "new year, new government". Holding out until the very end presents bigger risks than an election in October or November.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, this was one reason why Labour hoped things last time might be dragged out enough to get an election in early 2020. "New decade, new government" was never going to work even so given the more general climate, but it might just have saved a few seats for Corbyn.

[Torrain]

That raises the awful prospect of that frail minority government limping through COVID, with the the brexiteers who switched their colours to anti-lockdown crusaders as soon as they could impeding basic parliamentary functions.

Let alone the interminable fights over whether to vote to extend parliament's term, or hold a Johnson-Corbyn general election in-between lockdowns in the summer of 2020.

Man, that year really could have been a whole lot worse.

[oldtimer]

Well lets have 2 ways to make an estimate:

A. Subtraction of other parties.

Lets say the Conservatives get 28 and the smaller parties get a bit squeezed.
Reform 5
LD 11
SNP 3
GRN 4

That's 51%

Plus another 1% others
That's 52, give N.I. parties another 2, so 54%

So Labour 46%


B. Comparison to 1997.

If the Con+Reform vote = Con+Goldsmith vote of 1997 = 34%

LD would be weaker than 1997, but Greens and SNP stronger, lets say the combined vote is a tad lower.

That makes Labour only a tad stronger than 1997, lets say 44%.


So Labour ought to get mid 40's.

In terms of seats I would expect Labour to be at around 440, the Conservatives around 140 and the LD and SNP at around 25-35 each.

[WalterWhite]

It remains very likely that the last *practical* date for the GE is December 2024, for reasons already stated. Dragging things through Christmas could drag the Tory share down another point or two.

In all practical terms, it really does not matter when the election is scheduled. The Conservatives are on track to lose in a landslide.

[CumbrianLefty]

That raises the awful prospect of that frail minority government limping through COVID

Was thinking of a poll in early 2020 tbh.

[mileslunn]

I think low 40s as things will tighten as usually do.  Opposition parties always poll higher in between elections in UK.  My guess is Tories also got north of 30% as many dissatisfied supporters in end come home.  Not enough to save them but enough to ensure election not as big a blowout as polls show.  Likewise possible if Starmer runs on a very centrist platform and maintains huge lead, some further left go Greens realizing Labour is going to win anyways and hope a strong Green showing will pull party to the left.