Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[oldtimer]

Some of the previous tweets from that account were talking about comparing turnout to the 2021 gubernatorial race, which seems weird to me.

Wouldn't we expect turnout to equal or surpass the gubernatorial election anyway?

But not Presidential Levels.
The General Guideline in all elections that I have witnessed is:
Unpopular Government + High Turnout = Change.

[oldtimer]

Looking good so far, though the only race I’m really sweating is IL Supreme Court

Illinois is interesting because there are a lot of dominoes that all fall at once given the abundance of Biden + 10-15 seats, the state Supreme Court, and a few row offices. The GOP may also have a very very small chance at at least 1 chamber of the legislature which would probably fall at around the same time.

Given Biden is unpopular in Illinois I wondered why Pritzker was coasting in the opinion polls.

[oldtimer]

About sums up the vibes for the moment.

Count VA in with NV I suppose.

States with similar demographics ought to correllate with one another.
Do Nevada and Arizona look like X so far? Yes, no surprise.
So find the equivalent of Virginia.

[oldtimer]

I wouldn't panic yet. It could very well be a bloodbath for the Democrats, but a lot of Democrats voted by mail and in early voting. You'd suspect e-day voters to be heavily Republican

That's why Republicans were favoured going into Election Day, the Early Vote was way down compared to 2020.

[oldtimer]

I wouldn't panic yet. It could very well be a bloodbath for the Democrats, but a lot of Democrats voted by mail and in early voting. You'd suspect e-day voters to be heavily Republican

That's why Republicans were favoured going into Election Day, the Early Vote was way down compared to 2020.

Was it? I can't speak for other states, but I know SC and GA had record early voting turnout I believe.

Overall in America the early vote was down in total numbers compared to 2020.
Now some speculated that was due to Democcrats switching to Election Day voting, but so far it's not happening.

[oldtimer]

I predicted in another thread a few days back that it was feeling like Dems would do better than expected in the Midwest but worse than expected in the Sun Belt, and it looks like that may be coming true even more than I imagined.  Is it possible Mark Kelly and Ron Johnson both lose?

It could be.
Special Elections and the Washington Primary painted a picture of Democrats doing well with Whites, but terribly with Minorities.

However there is now speculation that VA-10 will go Republican tonight.
If it flips then Democrats won't be expected to hold anything of importance.

[oldtimer]

I predicted in another thread a few days back that it was feeling like Dems would do better than expected in the Midwest but worse than expected in the Sun Belt, and it looks like that may be coming true even more than I imagined.  Is it possible Mark Kelly and Ron Johnson both lose?

It could be.
Special Elections and the Washington Primary painted a picture of Democrats doing well with Whites, but terribly with Minorities.

However there is now speculation that VA-10 will go Republican tonight.
If it flips then Democrats won't be expected to hold anything of importance.

I wouldn't say that. It is just that district, except for Loudoun County itself, was exaggerated democratic in 2020 and Cao is a good candidate.  Wexton is quite a bit to the left of that district on issues like guns, wokeness, etc.

Biden won VA-10 by 19%.
If that goes, how can Democrats hold the Mid-West where Biden won by a few thousand votes ?

At that point my attention would shift to New York.

[oldtimer]

Looks like the Indiana and Kentucky vote so far is the early vote.

[oldtimer]

Idk if it's just me but Indiana, does the map seem even more polarized than 2020 so far?

Not really, Urban and Rural counties are Young 5% less than Trump in 2020.
But it's the early vote.

[oldtimer]

CNN Exit Poll Georgia
Walker 49.7%
Warnock 48.3

Talking about close and close to avoid a runoff.

[oldtimer]

Walker is steadily doing around 4.5 points worse than Kemp in the Early Vote.
If Kemp gets more than 55% you would expect Walker to be over 50%.

[oldtimer]

CNN Exit Poll Ohio
Vance 50.7
Ryan 48.3

If that is accurate Republicans are in for a bad night with White Voters.

[oldtimer]

CNN Exit Poll Pennsylvania
Oz 49.5
Fetterman 49

[oldtimer]

Wexton wins!!

No Super Red Wave then.

If Democrats keep VA-07 too it's going to be a respectable night for them.

[oldtimer]

Black voters seem to be voting similarly to how they did in the 2020 Presidential election based on results from Lauderhill, Florida (75.6% Black)

Biden 88.6% in 2020

Crist 87.7% in 2022
Demings 89.1% in 2022

I don't know.
Demings is still down by around 4-5 points relative to Biden around Tallahasse with more Election Day vote to come.

[oldtimer]

Does anyone have exits for NH-SEN?

Also female / male numbers please

CNN has it as Hassan at just under 51, Bolduc at just under 48.

Hassan 59/40 with Women
Boldud 56/42 with Men

[oldtimer]

If Spanberger pulls it out, it's a pretty good upset compared to expectations mid-day, right?

It would be in line with special elections showing Republicans losing the White vote while winning the Minority vote.

[oldtimer]

CNN Exit Poll Wisconsin

Johnson 51.3
Barnes 47.7

[oldtimer]

Kelly is winning the White vote in the CNN Exit Poll.
Masters is getting 40% of Hispanics but that doesn't matter, that says it all.

Biden may be unpopular but voters in Midterms are voting for Party and Democrats are still the more Popular Party.

[oldtimer]

i think Rs win NV and Ds win AZ and PA
it all come sdown to GA and looks like it will be around +1.8 which goes to a runoff?

If it goes to a run-off Democrats would be favoured.

[oldtimer]

NV exits have Laxalt+4.5. Perhaps it's not the Latino vote shifting R necessarily, but the Latino vote in "entertainment economy" communities shifting R.

Edit: Same CNN exits have CCM +20 with Latinos. Down from D+26 in 2020 NV exits, so assuming exits are correct, the shift among races seems uniform in Nevada.

Doubt it, Masters has 40 with Hispanics in the Arizona Exit Polls.
We have to wait for California and Texas Hispanic areas to determine it.

But Democrats are not doing well in New York City which has a lot of minorities too, at the moment.

[oldtimer]

In areas than have more than half of the vote in.
Zeldin is doing about 20% better than Morinaro in New York City.
Hochul about 2% better than Cuomo in Upstate New York.

[oldtimer]

Outside of Florida, New York City and Nevada the results everywhere look like 2018.

We should see Democrats gain some seats in the House but perhaps not retaining it due to loses in Florida, N.Y.C and Nevada.

[oldtimer]

My Hot take.

Pennsylvania was never in doubt for Fetterman if you looked at the Primary results.
Rural Whites clearly loved Fetterman because he was one of them, and hated Oz because he was a muslim (I remember the religious right attacks on Oz).

[oldtimer]

It is a serious question of just what exactly went wrong for the Republicans. Cause this was not the runaway election we thought it would be.

They where doing quite well until Congress passed all those bills in July and August.
Then their support among Whites collapsed, you could see Mitch McConnell's favourables among Republicans nose dive and the favourability of Democrats and Biden zoom up.

I guess Republican voters hated that the Senate Republicans passed Democrat Bills, and Democrats became enthousiastic with all their legislative victories.

Or just Gas Prices nosediving.