Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[oldtimer]

I have to abandon my pre-election silence to comment on this.

Remember what I told you many times ?

Treat the enemy population more humanely than their current masters and they will defect to you.

The key to win this war for Ukraine was always convincing the russian population that they will be treated better with another Leader, preferably Zelensky, not threats to exterminate all of russia.

Now Prigozin is marching without much resistance.

It could have been the Ukranian army, but they never made more than a token effort, and certainly not with a credible political platform.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/AstonishingFMan/status/1672506882164944896?s=20

There are now multiple reports that part of Bakhmut has been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

They should not make a move at all.

Any military move from outside of Russia would only stregthen Putin at the most critical moment when he might fall.

[oldtimer]

Why weren't the Russians more prepared for this?

Prigozhin's rhetoric had been getting increasingly vitriolic, violent, and accusatory. His videos where he angrily ranted about the fat elites sending Russians to die were clearly part of an effort to paint himself as a populist savoir. Earlier this month Prigozhin even accused the MOD of planting mines on Wagner's withdrawal route from Bakhmut.

I know they were putting up with a lot of Prigozhin's talk because of the strategic value of his PMC. But all of Prigozhin's actions pointed towards some sort of grand scheme, and people have been talking for months now about the potential of a Wagner mutiny, so why didn't Russia do more to prepare for that potential calamity?

Obvious answer - Putin long surrounded by sycophants who can't tell him even potential bad news?

Dictator's disease.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/AstonishingFMan/status/1672506882164944896?s=20

There are now multiple reports that part of Bakhmut has been retaken by Ukrainian forces.

They should not make a move at all.

Any military move from outside of Russia would only stregthen Putin at the most critical moment when he might fall.

Putin being ousted is not necessarily going to end the war, it may lead to hardliners taking over, so Ukraine should obviously seize the opportunity and take back as much territory as possible.

It opens new possibilities for peace.

Putin is a dirty word in western political circles, and afterall think what would have happened if the german army got rid of Hitler.

So you don't give a pretext to the russian people and soldiers to rally around Putin.

The West should not repeat it's errors during the russian revolution of 1917.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672590500254081024
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672586075485741057
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672577452357427200
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672587576690065414

Wrong moves.

You do not want to push russian nationalists and communists towards rallying around Putin.

[oldtimer]

Yet Putin is still not declaring martial law, so more empty retoric so far:
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1672588871044042752?cxt=HHwWgMDQne2tnb...

[oldtimer]

Another thing to consider that it's better to aid a smooth government transition in Russia and avoid an actual civil war involving it's nuclear arsenal.

You don't want various rebel groups to gain nukes, you would never know where they will end up.

That was standard State Department policy in the 1990's in the former USSR.

[oldtimer]

Dealing with it a bit better than last time, but how concerned should we be about the nukes in Russia? Not exactly sure this is a good thing.

I was just thinking about it.

Hence I reverted to the standard State Department policy during the 1990's.

You don't want civil war in a nuclear state, you can never be sure who gains access to the nukes.

Another reason for the West to hold it's horses militarily to encourage a smooth quick political transition.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/WarFrontline/status/1672585484768256001
This evening we will see a battle for Moscow.

I know.

The Oka river and the forest region would be the last main geographical obstacle.

The key is that so far the population and the soldiers are not supporting Putin, thus allowing a swift advance for Wagner.

Wagner are seen as actual Liberators by the locals.

[oldtimer]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Wagner defecting from Russia will have disastrous effects on Russia's global power projection. Not an insignificant chance that Russian influence in much of West Africa simply collapses in the coming weeks.

esp if Wagner withdraws troops from there

It also would create issues in some countries that rely on Wagner for their defence (think of Mali for instance).

Is it possible France might re-intervene in Mali if this happens?

Why is Mali so important to France ?

I never understood that obsession.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672580007309332480?s=20

You have to play the part of man of the people in times of emergency.

Zelenski was genuinly popular, and played the popular hero.

Putin is not popular, and is always playing the Tsar in a far away palace, like he never understood why the Tsar was toppled.

[oldtimer]

The map claims the Wagner convoy has reached Yefremov, Tula Oblast which is 290km from Moscow.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672607762272985088?s=20

I have read that they have entered the Moscow Province at Barabanovo, about 75 miles from  the Kremlin.

They are reaching the Oka river, lets see if they cross it.

Then the forest, and after that Moscow.

Domodedovo International Airport is right on the edge of Moscow, if we see that they have captured it then they have entered the city.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672603822986784768
Reports of organizations of mass protests and a call for peace, and for putin to step down and the restoration of democracy.

Now THIS is what we like to see, albeit my optimism is severely limited.

It won't work.

This time the population thinks their Leader is too soft, they don't want peace they want victory or at least a respectful tie.

Very different from 1991 or 1917, though in both cases an incompetent and indifferent dictator was a key.

But getting rid of Putin is always step 1 towards a settlement.
Step 2 will be up to the politicians.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1672621332998103043
No idea what they could possibly offer Wagner at this point (improbable as this seems, Carroll’s done some great journalism in Ukraine for the Economist, so I’m inclined to believe him).

Last ditch stalling tactic, maybe?

Well Putin has showed his hand at it's not a good one.

The military is not doing much to defend him and the people are indifferent to his fate.

Wagner has shown already that Putin is increadibly weak within Russia and can easily be toppled.

[oldtimer]

What are the implications of all of this for China?

Probably a bit less than for other players, given that whoever will have their hands on Russia's government will have to deal with China no matter what.
For what it's worth though, Kazakhstan is showing signs of independence from Russia or at least from Putin, considering Tokayev refused to allow Putin's plane to go into Kazakh airspace. That's maybe telling as to Chinese influence growing in the country.

I can't see Xi risking his neck for Putin, I'll say that much.

He might add it to his list of "What Russia did that China shouldn't", it's a very long list already if it starts at stalinist 1930's economics.

[oldtimer]

For what it's worth though, Kazakhstan is showing signs of independence from Russia or at least from Putin, considering Tokayev refused to allow Putin's plane to go into Kazakh airspace. That's maybe telling as to Chinese influence growing in the country.

It is impossible to imagine Putin trying to hide in Kazakhstan. He has sixteen-story bunkers all over Russia, but even if they were besieged, he would prefer to hide in Beijing. It's the same post-ironic act as the capture of Bomb-Voronezh.

Belarus is the most possible.
Turkey is next.
Some Arab Kingdom or Iran after that.
Maybe even India.

[oldtimer]

So they came to some 60 miles from the Kremlin with no opposition, then Lukashenko brokers a deal and the slate is clean ?

Who writes the script ?

[oldtimer]

What are the implications of all of this for China?

I've mentioned here before that the period of 1989-91 was a collective trauma to the CCP elite: Tiananmen Square, Berlin Wall, Gulf War, Soviet collapse. Since then, they have been living under the shadow of these events. Xi himself is known to have been obsessed with the Soviet collapse, and his conclusion was that big nations like Russia and China need a strong leader to stay intact.

Hence, his simping on Putin for year.

With Putin now set to go down in flames after a failed "special military operation" to unify a rogue province, and who knows what else will come, this will definitely become triggering to Xi and his generation of CCP elites.

What caused the collapse of the Soviet Union was basically a lack of new ideas, weak elderly leaders, no accomodation for social change, and a state that nothing was done unless someone higher up ordered it at gunpoint.

A strong leader might have prolonged it a bit but it would still result in a bloody chaotic resurfacing event typical of chinese dynasty cycles.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1672668518888923137
Massive concessions for Putin. He looks incredibly weak.

It's the equivalent of Cristiano Ronaldo going on strike to get his coach fired.

[oldtimer]

The sudden decision by Prigozhin to make a deal, give up, and turn around does make more sense if you look at his actions as gangland (or warlord?) warfare instead of a coup attempt.

https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1672682385518006272?s=20

You think Putin place the hit on him yet?

With what ?

Even the FSB allowed Wagner to do it's march to Moscow, he's got no loyal elements to count on for such a thing.

Or is he going to threaten to nuke him every now and then.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1673586316661891073

That chart did have some merit.

Churchill had the worst military ideas, instead of invading Italy in Tuscany to castrate it from it's industrial balls, he forced the invasion from the Southern tip. Where the roads and the mountains where the worst and the Germans could easily defend a land that was mostly worthless for 1000 miles.

[oldtimer]

An interesting paragraph:

"For months now, elements of the FSB security service have been talking with exiled opposition groups, according to a well-placed dissident, who asked not to be named. That in turn has prompted some hopes that the siloviki [“strongman” security officials] and Russian opposition groups can come to some arrangement for a more orderly end to Putinism — with both groups united in the fear of ultranationalists seizing control and waging war even more ferociously and recklessly in Ukraine."

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1673786548112728064?s=20

I don't see any serious realistic attempts.

Where are the populist figures ?
Where is a credible political program that would appeal to russian communists and nationalists who are the majority of the population ?
Where is the military backing ?

So far it's smells a repeat of Savinkov.

They should just remake Zelenski into a russian liberator rather than a sworn russian enemy and let him loose inside Russia, he would take the whole thing in a few days.

[oldtimer]

Hmmm....somebody's lying. Maybe even both of them.

https://twitter.com/Wolfe321/status/1676302191727091712?s=20

It makes no military sence to blow it up for either side.

Ukraine can bypass it easily anywhere along the dry riverbed, and I've been wondering for a month now why are they still attacking the trenches instead of preparing to drive cross the dry Dnieper.

And Russia could blow up a Dam further up the river to delay any crossing.

Both far easier choices than blowing up a nuclear plant.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1676310984309239811

god if the russki terrorists cause a disaster at the plant NATO has to respond, theres no other option, hopefully response would be strong, send the black sea fleet to davy jones locker, maybe pacific and arctic fleets too, no-fly zone over Ukraine, no more pussy "strong condemnations"

Bombing a nuclear plant is essentially the same as using nuclear warfare. That would justify imo repercussions or even an invasion of Russia by NATO.

Incorrect.

The radiation from a nuclear power plant blown up is far worse than a nuclear explosion, there is a lot more radioactive material.

It would spread by the winds in Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East , causing panic and disruption of life over a wide area of the world.

American allies such as Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Turkey, Georgia, Israel would be affected directly due to the prevailing winds.

Russia all the way up to the Urals.

It doesn't make sence for anyone to blow it up, even as a pretext for official NATO involvement.

Both sides can find easier ways to change the course of the war.

[oldtimer]

I wonder if the cluster bombs will help to dislodge Russian troops from the trenches or if it won’t make an impact.

American and foreign military officials seem to believe they will help:

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/07/04/ukraine-wants-american-cluster-bombs-quickly

America itself has not used cluster bombs in action since the first weeks of the Iraq war in 2003. But even those countries that disavow their use recognise that they can be potent weapons. In an article for the British Army Review published in 2019, a British brigadier noted that American DPICMs had “saved the day time and again” by breaking up big enemy formations during division-level exercises. “They were, and are, a game-changer.”

Ben Hodges, a former commander of the US Army in Europe, says that cluster munitions could suppress Russian fire from trenches and artillery, giving Ukraine more time to clear a path through minefields, which are proving to be a serious problem. There are other advantages, too. The area effect means that cluster bombs can be fired more quickly than ordinary high-explosive rounds, since the attacker needs less precise intelligence on the target, allowing the gun to scoot away faster. The supply of DPICMs would also ease pressure on ordinary artillery shells, which are in short supply, and on the overworked barrels that fire them. “I cannot see how momentum can be maintained without them,” says a Western official.

I've seen enough war videos at this point to realize that many Russian targets escape annihilation because regular artillery is only so accurate and often misses, particularly when a given strike can only lob a few shells at a position. Cluster bombs would pepper an area up to 100 meters with dozens of bomblets that could significantly enhance the lethality of strikes while reducing ammunition usage, letting Ukraine do more with less.

I don't really know if the end outcome will allow Ukraine to progress faster, because the issues hindering some advances are not necessarily guys in trenches but minefields, obstacles, and drones that pick off units trying to breach those minefields. But the US government seems to think that they will help enough to be worth the scandalous nature of those munitions.

Besides, if Ukraine wants to keep its artillery fed, it basically has to be cluster bombs, at least until additional production of regular shells comes online. It's the only type of shell America has to give in the millions, considering the military has phased those out.

This is a really good article. My hope is that maybe these could blow up some of the mines in the area. It seems like the minefields are really making this counteroffensive slow going because or the huge risk walking through them.

Attacking the enemy fortifications directly, instead of bypassing them is the reason why it's failing.

It's something so stupid only russians would do.

But lets wait another month, maybe the russians would run out of men to man their defence lines, but I don't like trench warfare even in it's most modern version.