Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Pivaru]

Funnily enough, Bolsonaro is currently leading in the two bellwether states, Minas Gerais and Amazonas. If Lula does end up losing both states, it will be the first time they've voted for a loser since the redemocratization of Brazil in the 80's (assuming he wins the presidential election, of course, and that seems likely).

Lula really has to thank the people from the northeast for giving him some Saddam Hussein-like margins there.

[Pivaru]

In Amazonas, incumbent governor Wilson Lima (UNIÃO), a Bolsonaro ally, has been reelected with 57% of the vote, defeating the Lula ally, senator Eduardo Braga (MDB).

[Pivaru]

Eduardo Leite (PSDB) has been reelected in Rio Grande do Sul, defeating the Bolsonaro ally Onyx Lorenzoni (PL). Lorenzoni ran a pretty bad campaign all things considered, he said getting Covid was better than getting vaccineted, was homophobic, had a weird event in which he was unable to present a fiscal plan during a debate while being pressed to do so by Leite, etc.

57-43.

Leite is the first Rio Grande do Sul governor reelected in history.

[Pivaru]

In Santa Catarina, Jorginho Mello (PL), Bolsonaro's ally, has won the gubernatorial election with 70% of the vote, defeating Décio Lima (PT). Décio wasn't even expected to get into the second round, his defeat was always expected.

[Pivaru]

Lula flipped Amazonas, now he is leading with 50.2% of the vote there. Honestly, Amazonas' status as a bellwether always felt a lot more like them getting lucky and voting for the winner than Minas'. I can see an argument for why Minas is a bellwether, I can't really see one for Amazonas, but I digress, seems like they'll keep their status.

[Pivaru]

In Pernambuco, Raquel Lyra (PSDB) has defeated Marilia Arraes (SD). 59-41.

This race was marked by a big emotional component, Lyra's husband died on the day of the first round and her son had to get an appendicitis surgery. On the first day of free electoral ad time on the second round, Lyra asked Arraes for both of them to not air anything, but Arraes, for some reason, decided to not take Lyra on her request.

That said, don't get me wrong, there is a political component to the race too. Arraes is from a very important political family from the region, voters are actively rejecting the Arraes family by choosing Lyra.

[Pivaru]

In Sergipe, Fábio Mitidieri (PSD) has defeated Rogério Carvalho (PT), 52 - 48. Polls said this race was 50-50, I don't know much more about it tbh.

[Pivaru]

In Rondonia, Coronel Marcos Rocha (UNIÃO), the incumbent governor, defeated Marcos Rogerio (PL). Once again, a bolsonarista vs bolsonarista race. 53-47.

[Pivaru]

Seems like incumbent governor and Lula ally Paulo Dantas (MDB) will win the election in Alagoas, defeating senator Rodrigo Cunha (UNIÃO). 52-48

This race was a proxy war between two important political families in Alagoas, the Calheiros family (supporting Dantas) and the Lira family (supporting Cunha). Dantas actually got into a big corruption scandal during the last few weeks of the campaign and was even removed from his position as governor. I thought this was an interesting election.

My friend who lives in Alagoas really wanted Cunha to win.

[Pivaru]

Tarcísio elected as Governor of São Paulo.

seems like Tarcisio overperformed the polls by a bit, the last ones by Datafolha and Ipec gave him 52 or 53.

[Pivaru]

Tarcísio elected as Governor of São Paulo.

what party is he?

Republicanos, he defeated former São Paulo mayor Fernando Haddad (PT). Tarcisio is a Bolsonaro ally and seen as his most likely political successor.

[Pivaru]

Now that I think about it, seems like Paraná Pesquisas will be the polling company that got the closest to the final result. They generally tend to favor the right, but in the first round they got fairly close and their final poll before the second round was something like Lula 50.5 - Bolsonaro 49.5.

I don't expect companies like Globo to take them seriously still, but y'know, just something to think about.

[Pivaru]

Tarcísio elected as Governor of São Paulo.

what party is he?

Republicanos, he defeated former São Paulo mayor Fernando Haddad (PT). Tarcisio is a Bolsonaro ally and seen as his most likely political successor.

So Sao Paulo state elects a non-PSDB governor.
How much of a political earthquake is that?

Very big, PSDB's last hope for being a relevant party now is Eduardo Leite in Rio Grande do Sul and, to a lesser extent, Raquel Lyra and Riedel in Pernambuco and Mato Grosso do Sul respectively. The party has truly been reduced to the status of being just one more centrão party.

[Pivaru]

The electoral court has called the Bahia gubernatorial race for Jeronimo Rodrigues (PT), defeating the former popular governor of Salvador ACM Neto (UNIÃO). Neto was the favorite during the entire first round, but after Jeronimo was able to tie his image to Lula, the race tightened. On election day, Jeronimo was 50k votes short of winning outright, it was a hard race for Neto to win from that point onward.

This is PT's 5th consecutive victory in the state.

52-48

This was the last gubernatorial race remaining to be called, now only the presidential race is remaining.

[Pivaru]

Minas has a bit of everything in Brazil, the southern regions are reminiscent of the southeast, the northern regions are remaniscent of the northeast, that's why whoever wins there, tends to win the nation.

Zema's political machine was able to close the gap for Bolsonaro by quite a bit, but yeah, it seems like it wasn't enough.

Side note, Zema is likely to try to become president in 2026, of the three people trying to carry the right wing banner (Tarcisio, Zema and Moro), I think he'd be the strongest.

[Pivaru]

Side note, Zema is likely to try to become president in 2026, of the three people trying to carry the right wing banner (Tarcisio, Zema and Moro), I think he'd be the strongest.

Tebet and Leite for the centrao, but who is likely to be the left/PT standard-bearer?

No idea, this is actually a very common critique to PT (even from the left), they struggle to create non-Lula leaderships. Maybe they'll try to make Haddad a minister during Lula's government to make him a candidate in 2026? Maybe they'll try to get Bahia governor and possible minister of the economy Rui Costa the 2026 candidate, not sure tbh. Personally, I think they need to forget Haddad, I don't really dislike the guy but I just don't think he is a strong candidate.

[Pivaru]

Does this sort of defeat margin mean that Bolsonaro should have enough political capital to try to run in 2026 ?

He could, but I think there's a non-negligible chance he decides to make Tarcisio run for the presidency instead.

There are rumors he actually promissed Zema he wouldn't support any specific right wing candidate in the first round in 2026, but I doubt he keeps his word.

[Pivaru]

Well, if the final result is 50.9-49.1 then my prediction of 51.5-49.5 was less than 1% off. Another feather in the cap

Lula: 55,189,618 (50.58%)
Bolsonaro: 53,923,613 (49.42%)
91.89% REPORTING

Haha USERS said Lula trendline wouldnt continue, ha, he who laughs have the last laugh.

We said that it wouldn't continue like it did in the 1st round and we were right. Otherwise Lula would be ahead by ~3-4%, not less than 1%

Side note, Zema is likely to try to become president in 2026, of the three people trying to carry the right wing banner (Tarcisio, Zema and Moro), I think he'd be the strongest.

Zema definitely comes off as the DeSantis to Bolsonaro's Trump and just like DeSantis his biggest problem is that he can't win the right against Bolsonaro and he'll have a hard time against a Bolsonaro-backed opponent even if he'd probably be the strongest option in the second round against anyone the left could pull out.

Yeah, Zema's best chance to win the presidency would probably be if Bolsonaro didn't run and Tarcisio decided to skip the presidential election to run for reelection in São Paulo (I sincerely think Moro doesn't matter, he is a weak candidate). I guess Zema could probably also benefit from leaving Novo, for varied reasons, the party did poorly this year, so they won't have free ad time (at least during the first round) and the organizers of debates won't need to invite their candidates.

If Bolsonaro runs or Tarcisio runs and gets Bolsonaro's backing, I have a hard time seeing a Zema candidacy going anywhere, in that case, I'd probably try going for a senate seat if I were him.

[Pivaru]

Why did Bolsonaro win Rio De Janiero?? I thought that was a fairly left-wing city

Rio de Janeiro has a considerable evangelical population, in particular in places like Campo Grande and Santa Cruz, I have family who lives there and most of them voted for Bolsonaro for this exact reason, they're very religious and they hate Lula because idk, he's sent by the demon or something. From the time I lived and visited there, I also have observed that a lot of people there have a "criminals are irredeemable and deserve to die in the hands of the police" view, which obviously fits Bolsonaro's agenda a lot more than Lula's (this is anecdotal, but I think it's worth noting).

Aside from these more evangelical places, the part of Rio that voted the most for Bolsonaro was Barra da Tijuca, which always votes for the right since the people who live there tend to be richer and thus, more right wing.

[Pivaru]

Why did Bolsonaro win Rio De Janiero?? I thought that was a fairly left-wing city

Rio de Janeiro has a considerable evangelical population, in particular in places like Campo Grande and Santa Cruz, I have family who lives there and most of them voted for Bolsonaro for this exact reason, they're very religious and they hate Lula. From the time I lived and visited there, I also have observed that a lot of people there have a "criminals are irredeemable and deserve to die in the hands of the police" view, which obviously fits Bolsonaro's agenda a lot more than Lula's (this is anecdotal, but I think it's worth noting).

When you say evangelical, are you talking about Protestant Christians, just Pentecostals, or anyone strict in general including Catholics?

Pentacostals and people from the Universal Church of the Kingdom of God

[Pivaru]

What's with the big bunch of municipalities closer to the Uruguay border voting for Lula?

I'm not super well versed on Rio Grande do Sul politics, so I'm sure other people could give you a more complete answer, but afaik, part of it is the influence of Leonel Brizola. Before becoming an important political figure in Rio de Janeiro and getting elected governor of that state, Brizola actually served as the mayor of Porto Alegre and governor of Rio Grande do Sul in the 60's, prior to the military coup. As a member of the historical PTB, he defended laborist ideas and was an exponent of getulism.

While Brizola's influence in Rio has waned in recent years, as I understand it, his laborist views are still very much alive and influential in Rio Grande do Sul and are particularly popular in the southern pampas, on the Uruguay border. Why is it particularly strong there? Not quite sure, I suspect those municipalities may be poorer than the rest of the state, but don't quote me on this, I haven't looked at any data regarding this.

[Pivaru]

What kind of result US style electoral college would give?

There are a few reasonable answers, all of them resulting in Bolsonaro victories.

In the first scenario, we just take the number of federal deputies each state has and add 3 (the number of senators per state). Bolsonaro wins 318 to Lula's 276 as in the following map.



That said, Brazil allocates representatives in the lower house differently to the US. In Brazil, every state has a minimum of 8 federal deputies and there's a ceiling of 70 representatives (which is kinda dumb when you take in account that the senate already exists to give every state equal representation, but that's besides the point). If we were to emulate the United States' system of allocation, states like São Paulo would gain electoral votes and states like Roraima would lose, therefore, we'd have the following map. Bolsonaro wins by a slightly larger margin, 326 - 268.



Finally, I guess one could say that the first round results should be used since in the US' system, there's no second round. If that was the case, we'd have to flip Amapá, since it was the only state to flip between the two rounds, we'd have to give their votes for Lula.

Using the first scenario, this would put Lula at a close 287 EVs, 11 away from victory (so in short, one state away). In the second scenario, it'd put Lula at 273 EVs.

I haven't checked, but I'm pretty sure this would be the first time this hypothetical electoral college would elect someone who lost the popular vote.