Dems/leaners: Should Biden drop out?

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Assuming all of his health vitals (physical and mental) are ok, he should stay in. He is on track to sweep every state's primary or caucus in a decisive landslide.

The voters have a viable alternative in a noncontroversial and inoffensive Congressman running against him, but all signs point to Biden being their preference.

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Plenty of people want him to drop put, no one seems to want to advocate for a replacement. Harris and Newsom are both rather weak. Those that really want him gone if they are sincere need to come up with the alternative and fast.

A "replacement" should be chosen through the normal primary process, just like every election cycle without the incumbent running. I could easily list 6-8 stronger candidates off the top of my head (and have in other threads), but the voters should decide.

The voters are deciding anyway. An inoffensive  generic D Congressman is running against Biden, and we'll actually get to know soon if Democratic voters really want to dump Biden or not.

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The voters are deciding anyway. An inoffensive  generic D Congressman is running against Biden, and we'll actually get to know soon if Democratic voters really want to dump Biden or not.

But this is the wrong way to think about this.
Democratic voters don't want Biden to be defeated. That would be a repudiation of his administration and accomplishments.  They want him to declare victory and retire on top.

That's just supposition and assertion. There's no data supporting that idea that Democrats are having that particular thought process.

Personally I think it makes more sense to just dismiss the polls saying that 75% or whatever of Democrats don't want Biden to be the nominee than try to contrive a reason why they might really think that but still ultimately vote for him in colossal landslides anyway.

Or maybe I'm totally wrong, the polls are right, and Phillips will win or at least give Biden a scare. I kinda doubt it though.

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You can’t “contrive” a reason why voters might want Biden to retire but also don’t want to instead vote for one of a bunch of weird randos?

Most Democrats like Biden.  Most of them haven’t heard of Dean Phillips, but most that have don’t like the negative message that Phillips is running against him. 

They also don’t want Biden to run again. If he didn’t run, the Dems would get several options far better than Dean Phillips.  It doesn’t seem that hard to understand.

If all of that is true, then Democrats don't really want a different candidate than Biden. Several polls have said that an overwhelming majority of Democratic voters want a "generic democrat" over Biden, and I can understand that doesn't mean they want a nut like Marianne Williamson over him, but Dean Phillips is not a "random weirdo" at all, but just a normal, inoffensive Congressman, someone who fits the "generic Democrat" label to a T as well as any of the 25+ candidates from 2020. If voters truly want a generic Democrat instead of Biden, they now have that opportunity.

Except I think we all know that Phillips is going to get like 5% in the contested primary, which is damning evidence that the polls are wrong and Democratic voters don't really want to replace Biden with someone else. (Or maybe I'm wrong and we'll find out that they do.) I think it's kinda to try to weave a narrative for both the upcoming Biden landslides results and also the polls to both be true with something like "welllllll, the voters do want someone other than Biden, but only if he drops out on his own (which, ok, he's not going to do unless he starts losing), but even though they want someone else, they won't actually vote for someone else!"

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Plenty of people want him to drop put, no one seems to want to advocate for a replacement. Harris and Newsom are both rather weak. Those that really want him gone if they are sincere need to come up with the alternative and fast.

A "replacement" should be chosen through the normal primary process, just like every election cycle without the incumbent running. I could easily list 6-8 stronger candidates off the top of my head (and have in other threads), but the voters should decide.

The voters will decide anyway. But if you have an active opinion that Biden should drop out and think it's important, then you should come up with an alternative. It is much harder to oppose something with nothing. If you want him out you need pressure, and there's not going to be sufficient pressure without a clear alternative.

Any of the following (and I’m sure several more if I thought a little harder):
- Wes Moore
- Steve Beshear
- Tammy Duckworth
- Raphael Warnock
- Mark Kelly
- Wes Moore
- Gretchen Whitmer
- Jared Polis
- Josh Shapiro

Why any of these people would risk their future careers as a sacrificial lamb candidate is beyond me, and Democrats poisoning the well when these people are still needed in their current role or to be used elsewhere is suicidal.

Biden is the candidate chosen to deal with the Trump question in 2020, he's the least risk option at this point unless you want to appear even weaker downballot. If you want, you can find some sacrificial lamb to be brought in during a brokered convention–Laura Kelly seems doable as an inoffensive candidate–but be prepared to deal with the consequences of it turning into a media circus because it will be a general s•••show.

I’m absolutely not saying any of these people should run -against- Biden.  I’m saying they are stronger alternatives if Biden retires.

If 75% or whatever of Democratic voters actually want a different candidate than Biden, these candidates shouldn't be afraid of running against him. The fact that nobody but Dean Phillips is willing to do so tells me that none of those guys really believe that Biden's situation is so dire.

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Plenty of people want him to drop put, no one seems to want to advocate for a replacement. Harris and Newsom are both rather weak. Those that really want him gone if they are sincere need to come up with the alternative and fast.

A "replacement" should be chosen through the normal primary process, just like every election cycle without the incumbent running. I could easily list 6-8 stronger candidates off the top of my head (and have in other threads), but the voters should decide.

The voters will decide anyway. But if you have an active opinion that Biden should drop out and think it's important, then you should come up with an alternative. It is much harder to oppose something with nothing. If you want him out you need pressure, and there's not going to be sufficient pressure without a clear alternative.

Any of the following (and I’m sure several more if I thought a little harder):
- Wes Moore
- Steve Beshear
- Tammy Duckworth
- Raphael Warnock
- Mark Kelly
- Wes Moore
- Gretchen Whitmer
- Jared Polis
- Josh Shapiro

Why any of these people would risk their future careers as a sacrificial lamb candidate is beyond me, and Democrats poisoning the well when these people are still needed in their current role or to be used elsewhere is suicidal.

Biden is the candidate chosen to deal with the Trump question in 2020, he's the least risk option at this point unless you want to appear even weaker downballot. If you want, you can find some sacrificial lamb to be brought in during a brokered convention–Laura Kelly seems doable as an inoffensive candidate–but be prepared to deal with the consequences of it turning into a media circus because it will be a general s•••show.

I’m absolutely not saying any of these people should run -against- Biden.  I’m saying they are stronger alternatives if Biden retires.

If 75% or whatever of Democratic voters actually want a different candidate than Biden, these candidates shouldn't be afraid of running against him. The fact that nobody but Dean Phillips is willing to do so tells me that none of those guys really believe that Biden's situation is so dire.

No one said democratic voters were in touch with reality. The reality is we are doomed if we don't run someone else. Period. You can put your fingers in your ears and cry about ageism and how unfair it is but reality is reality. Biden is unpopular, he's damaged beyond belief and we need to pass the torch to anybody else. Whitmer, Beshear, and again, even Newsom or Harris would be better at this point!

If all these polls are true, Newsom should jump in today. He'd be the favorite for the nomination and could probably clinch it before the halfway point.

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Plenty of people want him to drop put, no one seems to want to advocate for a replacement. Harris and Newsom are both rather weak. Those that really want him gone if they are sincere need to come up with the alternative and fast.

A "replacement" should be chosen through the normal primary process, just like every election cycle without the incumbent running. I could easily list 6-8 stronger candidates off the top of my head (and have in other threads), but the voters should decide.

The voters will decide anyway. But if you have an active opinion that Biden should drop out and think it's important, then you should come up with an alternative. It is much harder to oppose something with nothing. If you want him out you need pressure, and there's not going to be sufficient pressure without a clear alternative.

Any of the following (and I’m sure several more if I thought a little harder):
- Wes Moore
- Steve Beshear
- Tammy Duckworth
- Raphael Warnock
- Mark Kelly
- Wes Moore
- Gretchen Whitmer
- Jared Polis
- Josh Shapiro

Why any of these people would risk their future careers as a sacrificial lamb candidate is beyond me, and Democrats poisoning the well when these people are still needed in their current role or to be used elsewhere is suicidal.

Biden is the candidate chosen to deal with the Trump question in 2020, he's the least risk option at this point unless you want to appear even weaker downballot. If you want, you can find some sacrificial lamb to be brought in during a brokered convention–Laura Kelly seems doable as an inoffensive candidate–but be prepared to deal with the consequences of it turning into a media circus because it will be a general s•••show.

I’m absolutely not saying any of these people should run -against- Biden.  I’m saying they are stronger alternatives if Biden retires.

If 75% or whatever of Democratic voters actually want a different candidate than Biden, these candidates shouldn't be afraid of running against him. The fact that nobody but Dean Phillips is willing to do so tells me that none of those guys really believe that Biden's situation is so dire.

No one said democratic voters were in touch with reality. The reality is we are doomed if we don't run someone else. Period. You can put your fingers in your ears and cry about ageism and how unfair it is but reality is reality. Biden is unpopular, he's damaged beyond belief and we need to pass the torch to anybody else. Whitmer, Beshear, and again, even Newsom or Harris would be better at this point!

I've posted in other threads about why it is not possible for another Dem to run against Biden.
Biden has been a very good president, and most Democrats believe this.  The only reason he shouldn't be the nominee is that he is too old.

But you just can't run a campaign on this message.  You simply can't run an ad saying "My opponent has been a great president, and I agree with him on everything.  But he's probably going to die soon, so vote for me!"

A lot of Democratic voters agree with the sentiment in the back of their minds.  But you can't say it in a campaign.  It's just too morbid and would immediate turn off voters for speaking the unspeakable out loud.  It's something that Biden needs to come to terms with himself, and it's really disheartening given his long career of terrific public service that he apparently isn't willing to do it.

I disagree. If it's really true that 75% of Democratic voters want someone other than Biden and like 15% of the country will vote Trump over Biden but otherwise any Democrat over Trump, Newsom should be able to enter the race and beat Biden for the nomination.

I think those premises aren't really true in the first place and Newsom would lose, and I think Newsom agrees with me, but if they are actually true, the door is wide open for Newsom.

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I don't understand how people keep misinterpreting what I'm saying.
My thesis is that the majority of Democrats (a) like Biden and don't want anyone running a negative campaign against him; and also (b) think he's too old to run again and want him to retire.

Both halves of this are both completely sensible and also consistent with every poll we've been seeing.

And yet somehow a lot of people think this combination of beliefs is impossible despite the fact this is exactly what Dems have been telling pollsters for months. And so we just have to ignore all the data because it can't be reconciled with your a priori beliefs?

We understand your point, we just don't agree with it. If the "75% of Democrats don't want Biden to be the nominee" polls are true, then Newsom would beat Biden head to head in a primary, and even a generic unknown like Phillips would have a good shot.

I think you're bending over backward to come up with a way for those polls to be true even when we all know that Biden is going to win the nomination in a landslide anyway and Newsom won't even try. Is there really reliable polling data that goes deeply into the thoughts and motivations of those 75% who want Biden replaced and explains why they're still voting for him anyway? Or are you just projecting your own personal opinions onto tens of millions of Americans?

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I don't understand how people keep misinterpreting what I'm saying.
My thesis is that the majority of Democrats (a) like Biden and don't want anyone running a negative campaign against him; and also (b) think he's too old to run again and want him to retire.

Both halves of this are both completely sensible and also consistent with every poll we've been seeing.

And yet somehow a lot of people think this combination of beliefs is impossible despite the fact this is exactly what Dems have been telling pollsters for months. And so we just have to ignore all the data because it can't be reconciled with your a priori beliefs?

We understand your point, we just don't agree with it. If the "75% of Democrats don't want Biden to be the nominee" polls are true, then Newsom would beat Biden head to head in a primary, and even a generic unknown like Phillips would have a good shot.

I think you're bending over backward to come up with a way for those polls to be true even when we all know that Biden is going to win the nomination in a landslide anyway and Newsom won't even try. Is there really reliable polling data that goes deeply into the thoughts and motivations of those 75% who want Biden replaced and explains why they're still voting for him anyway? Or are you just projecting your own personal opinions onto tens of millions of Americans?

You're the one bending over backwards to just ignore polls that don't confirm your prior beliefs.
All of the data we have is on my side here.  Is it really so hard to understand that not everyone thinks about politics in the exact same way that you do?

"All the data" ??  What data? There's a poll that deep dives into the supposed 75% of Democrats that want Biden replaced and details how they actually do like him and will vote for him anyway? I can accept whatever poll as a data point, but I'm not going to spin a whole narrative to tie some data point together.

Ultimately the only data that really matters is how the election results come in, and I've been fully transparent that I could be proven wrong on those. But when it likely turns out that Biden beats Phillips like 90-5 in the contested primaries, that's damningly strong evidence against the 75% polls.

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I don't understand how people keep misinterpreting what I'm saying.
My thesis is that the majority of Democrats (a) like Biden and don't want anyone running a negative campaign against him; and also (b) think he's too old to run again and want him to retire.

Both halves of this are both completely sensible and also consistent with every poll we've been seeing.

And yet somehow a lot of people think this combination of beliefs is impossible despite the fact this is exactly what Dems have been telling pollsters for months. And so we just have to ignore all the data because it can't be reconciled with your a priori beliefs?

We understand your point, we just don't agree with it. If the "75% of Democrats don't want Biden to be the nominee" polls are true, then Newsom would beat Biden head to head in a primary, and even a generic unknown like Phillips would have a good shot.

I think you're bending over backward to come up with a way for those polls to be true even when we all know that Biden is going to win the nomination in a landslide anyway and Newsom won't even try. Is there really reliable polling data that goes deeply into the thoughts and motivations of those 75% who want Biden replaced and explains why they're still voting for him anyway? Or are you just projecting your own personal opinions onto tens of millions of Americans?

You're the one bending over backwards to just ignore polls that don't confirm your prior beliefs.
All of the data we have is on my side here.  Is it really so hard to understand that not everyone thinks about politics in the exact same way that you do?

"All the data" ??  What data? There's a poll that deep dives into the supposed 75% of Democrats that want Biden replaced and details how they actually do like him and will vote for him anyway? I can accept whatever poll as a data point, but I'm not going to spin a whole narrative to tie some data point together.

Ultimately the only data that really matters is how the election results come in, and I've been fully transparent that I could be proven wrong on those. But when it likely turns out that Biden beats Phillips like 90-5 in the contested primaries, that's damningly strong evidence against the 75% polls.

You can't understand that a lot of people want Biden to retire, but also don't want to see some rando Dem congressman attacking him every day?

Of course I can understand some people thinking that. But 70% of the Democratic electorate? Tens of millions of people?

Much more likely that it's a combination of bad polling methodology and people just reporting fleeting thoughts rather than firm convictions. If someone really wants Biden not to be the nominee, they'll vote for Phillips. He's a generic and credible challenger who isn't being too rough with his attacks, even saying that Biden is a good president but just needs to step aside for someone with a better shot of beating Trump. He's not a nut like Williamson or a complete freakshow like RFK.

Ultimately we'll find out at the ballot box in a few months, but I suspect Biden will win in a bloodbath landslide because the polls that most Democrats don't want him to be the nominee weren't really true. Or maybe I'm wrong and Phillips will give him a tough fight.

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Isn’t this the same logic as "Trump will win in a landslide because of his rallies and crowds"?

No, it's the same argument as "If Trump beats Biden in a landslide next November, a hypothetical poll saying that 75% of voters didn't want Trump to win was probably wrong.

Also, Biden's problems go way beyond Democratic enthusiasm — he still wins 85%+ of Democrats even in most polls which show him trailing badly in swing states such as PA and MI.

That may be true, but it's not really relevant to the discussion at hand, which is only whether the polls suggesting that 75% or more of Democrats want someone other than Biden to be the nominee are correct or not. I suspect that they are not, because if they were Phillips would be getting more traction and Newsom would have probably jumped in, but there's still time for me to be proven wrong. Whether these polls are wrong intentionally, because of bad methodology, or because voters are telling pollsters things they don't sincerely believe is another question too which I don't know the answer.

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Isn’t this the same logic as "Trump will win in a landslide because of his rallies and crowds"?

No, it's the same argument as "If Trump beats Biden in a landslide next November, a hypothetical poll saying that 75% of voters didn't want Trump to win was probably wrong.

Also, Biden's problems go way beyond Democratic enthusiasm — he still wins 85%+ of Democrats even in most polls which show him trailing badly in swing states such as PA and MI.

That may be true, but it's not really relevant to the discussion at hand, which is only whether the polls suggesting that 75% or more of Democrats want someone other than Biden to be the nominee are correct or not. I suspect that they are not, because if they were Phillips would be getting more traction and Newsom would have probably jumped in, but there's still time for me to be proven wrong. Whether these polls are wrong intentionally, because of bad methodology, or because voters are telling pollsters things they don't sincerely believe is another question too which I don't know the answer.

Can you imagine a scenario where a company would prefer that a well-liked long-time employee would retire, but don't feel they have grounds to fire them?  A lot of Dems feel the same way about Biden.

Arguing with Harry is pointless dude, don’t even bother

I'm trying to remember what you and I feuded over and nothing's coming to mind, but I hope we can move past it and all stand united going into the 2024 election, given its potentially apocalyptic consequences 🤝