What Party will win the 2019 Attorney General's Election in Mississippi?

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>99% Republican. Mississippi will eventually elect a black person to a statewide office, but it won't be a black female ACLU lawyer, at least not in 2019. Also Collins has no name recognition or money, so it's unlikely that she would be able to take advantage of any gaffes from the Republican nominee.

[7,052,770]

!!!

It is what it is. I'm not saying that it's literally impossible for a hypothetical black female candidate to win in Mississippi, even in 2019, but it would have to be someone with a lot more money and name recognition than Collins. No one knew who she was before this year, and only political junkies know who she is now. She's not one of the plethora of candidates currently running ads - maybe that will change as we approach November, but I doubt it.

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It should be pointed out that the Republican nominee for AG will either be:

• A relatively unpopular woman who is currently Treasurer
• A segregationist clown who's complained that the Voting Rights Act was a violation of Mississippi's soverignty
• An open #NeverTrumper

None of these Republicans are particularly strong candidates (in the context of Republicans in Mississippi). With a good candidate, the Democrats could have put up a fight to hold this office, but nobody other than Collins bothered to run.

Mississippi should stagger the statewide elections away from the legislative and District Attorney elections. There are plausible candidates in both parties for statewide office who don't run because they don't want to risk their current job to go for it. This is especially bad for Democrats, since they know they'd be giving up their current job for a longshot chance.

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I could see her getting a result similar to what Espy got.

I can't. Espy had money and decades of name recognition. She will not break 40% unless her opponent makes some big gaffes.