Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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WHAT?

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1501335043448442880?s=20&t=QI381JE...

The US claims to see a risk of war it is unwilling to take but wants Poland to take. I don’t believe that risk is significant, but even if it were, NATO’s article 5 would mean the US shared any Polish risk.

To me, this signals that the US is not ruling out a failure to honour article 5 (“Putin said giving planes would be an act of war, so Poland is the aggressor”). That may not be an intent - the mixed US messaging is likely a result of common miscommunications and disagreements within the natsec blob - but it is what is signalled.

I'm praying this is a false flag. If not, Biden seriously effed up.

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At least I'm not the only person thinking this.

Yeah, that whole narrative did not hang together too well. Something is going on behind the curtain. I suspect when this story is written, quite a bit was going on behind the curtain.

That final line about  The Polish plan just not being tenable makes me very nervous and a bit pessimistic that this is all just some plausible deniability  Diplomatic double speak.

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https://www.businessinsider.com/omar-says-shell-vote-against-russian-oil-ban-citing-impact-on-russians-2022-3

Bds supporter now thinks sanctions are bad.

 Lord she's bad. Such a shame her primary challenger didn't win.

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Meanwhile.... Putin joins the Pirate Party!

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave Russians the green light to ignore laws on intellectual property and licenses, part of a package of emergency measures he signed Tuesday to address the severe impact of Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine.

The package allows the government to deviate from IP and licensing laws.

Russia’s finances have been severely hit by sanctions — but also by the impact of hundreds of companies leaving Russia, including Microsoft, which announced Friday it was suspending sales in Russia.

Kommersant newspaper reported Saturday that Russia may abolish criminal penalties for pirating software, to ease the impact of Microsoft, IBM, Oracle and other companies suspending operations in Russia.

Putin said Saturday that Western sanctions were akin to a declaration of war on Russia while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “there should be an appropriate response to this economic banditry,” answering questions about moves to allow the pirating of software.

On Tuesday Russia announced that people holding Russian dollar-denominated bonds could be repaid in rubles for bondholders in dozens of “unfriendly countries” that were punishing Russia.

The emergency package signed by Putin also suspends government inspections of Russian IT companies and small- and medium-size businesses.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-6YUWOZXPQRH27F54AB7RNON6QU

 Between this, the threatened nationalization of foreign businesses which have ceased  Is operations in Russia, and closing the stock market for over a week in counting, am I being hyperbolic in saying that foreign investment in Russia is going to be devastated for years, possibly the  rest of this decade?

 I seriously question whether or not this will apply only to Western corporations. Since. Surely Indian companies don't like the idea of their shares shares not being marketable in a downturn or their business is being nationalized if and when their country has a major tiff  With Putin

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The US appears to give up on negotiating for the transfer of any Soviet jets and further argues that they wouldn’t be particularly useful: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60657155

It would have been much better if the various branches of the US government had communicated with each other before making overtures to Poland that they would consider too dangerous for their own country. If there was any chance of Poland making the transfer without US support, it is likely a lot smaller now that they know the US wouldn’t do it and would possibly abandon Poland in any conflict started over it.

John Kirby also claims the US is open to working with other allies to boost Ukraine’s air defences in other ways. Hopefully, this means medium-to-long range Soviet/Russian SAMs (and possibly Bulgaria’s Tochka ballistic missiles) - but signs of this are scant. The $13.6 billion budget should cover back-fills for the countries that would be giving theirs up.

 G** d*** it. Don't tell me that this "probably wouldn't help very much".

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If I were Putin, I'd concentrate on keeping the North Crimea Canal in Russian hands, and give up everything else (except, of course, Crimea), so long as Ukraine gives up NATO membership aspirations although it can pursue talks on joining the European Union, and remain a neutral state like Austria and Switzerland.  

 If I were putin, as an actual Vladimir Putin, I would be aggressively pushing in all points. With no restraint on civilian casualties casualties in order to conquer the Ukraine and install a puppet government.

Oh look....

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German news sources already report that a member of Lavrov's delegation said there would be "no concessions at all." Probably this meeting is just a waste of time.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1501654121908211715

At this point, it seems clear Russia is only conducting these meetings for propaganda purposes. Russia is using them as evidence at home that they are the side "wanting peace", as part of the brain dead narrative that the war is a defensive "special military operation". 

If I were Ukraine I'd stop playing along with Russia's games and refuse to meet (mentioning how the government is busy defending the country and doesn't have time to be lectured to) until the Russia is willing to offer significant concessions.

Russia's already laid out their red lines: DPR, LPR and Crimea recognition, as well as constitutional neutrality. That is their absolute limit; they won't accept anything less than that.

Also, I'll say it's very easy for us to say Ukraine should be aggressive in neogitations. Keep this in mind: Ukrainian forces are stuggling, and stuggling heavily. Their only way out of this is a negotiated peace.

Again, the west should make it clear that none of the sanctions are going away unless Russia removes its troops from *all* of Ukraine—and that includes Crimea.

 No, even the Ukraine would gladly say to the West please accept this peace proposal now. We will write-off the Crimea which we haven't held for  A few years and can't realistically take back in order to preserve our country. They'd surely accept some form of compromise on the Donbkass to do so.

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If the jets won't be that useful then it makes sense to minimize the chances of WW3. I'm just saying, the criticism of it in this thread is somewhat baffling to me. I'm surprised we've been helping as much as we have given the risk.

I've grown extremely tired of this lame "escalation" argument with respect to fighter jets. It's lazy and makes zero sense. It exudes weakness and only encourages Putin.

I don't know if it would escalate it or not. But the military that this is a bad idea. They're the ones who have the experts looking at this and have intelligence we're not privy to. It might make sense if you knew everything. Maybe not, there could be internal disagreement about this too.

 It's not the military but the diplomats who are saying this is a bad idea. Is. And  With all respect to lifetime diplomats that requires More common sense than technical expertise. It is now clear that Putin will only be stopped only be stopped through military resistance Terry resistance, of which the Ukrainian Air Force maintaining viability is crucial. It's further clear that that Russia has bitten off more than it can chew just invading invading Ukraine. As if they're seriously going to start A-war with NATO  On top of the one war they're having great difficulty with already?!? H***, they'd be hard pressed to even invade Moldavia or Georgia at this point, let alone start A-war with a very unified Western alliance.

I'm very disappointed in president Biden here.

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As if they're seriously going to start A-war with NATO  On top of the one war they're having great difficulty with already?!?

If they genuinely see it as us starting the war, which is something I'm scared of, then that doesn't really matter.

But will they? If we've already shipped countless antitank and antiaircraft rockets plus tons of other munitions, led economy  crippling sanctions, aallowed armed volunteers to join the Ukrainian military, is allowing the shipment of Soviet era warplanes to Ukraine REALLY  Going to be the line that instigates Russia to enter A-war it literally cannot win and knows it?

Impossible? Of course not. Realistic? Hardly IMHO.

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NR is very anti Putin and pro Ukraine but in an editorial writes:

Say No to  No Fly Zone

https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/03/say-no-to-a-no-fly-zone/#slide-1

The rag's coverage of the war I have found to be excellent FWIW.

And CNN has a video of a young Russian man who lives in Ukraine and has been bombed, but his Dad in Russia does not believe him - the Russian propaganda is that effective. So the young man has started a movement to have sons and daughters in Ukraine call their parents back home to get the word out.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/03/09/russia-propaganda-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-newday-vpx.cnn

 I have to on this rare rare occasion agree with the national review. But it just underscores the necessity of providing those jets to Ukraine.

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Talks in Turkey have collapsed, as per The Guardian.

Well, they've agreed to meet again, although apart from that they couldn't agree on anything else today.

 What they "couldn't agree on today" was literally Ukraine surrendering unconditionally. This is not a both sides failed at diplomacy issue

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Here's a interview with the retired former general of the 7th army that's well worth a watch if you have 40 minutes to spare.

He talk's about the entire kerfuffle around the Polish jets to why he thinks Ukraine will win in the end and why he thinks a possible attack on Odessa would be a mistake.

tl;dr thumbnail version, especially re: the Polish jets, for those of us too busy/lazy/attention span deprived to take 40 minutes to review?

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U.S., Allies Look at Sending Soviet-Designed Air-Defense Systems to Ukraine

At last! With the jets proposal dead, the West is finally looking at sending ex-Soviet systems to Ukraine. The short-range Osa and long-range S-300 are confirmed to be among those under consideration. A European diplomat has suggested countries that shift these systems to Ukraine could receive Western-made alternatives.

This should have been done a lot earlier, and the jets discussion needn’t have stopped all others, but better late than never.

 Good. Now send the f****** jets, Joe!

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The Russian economy has gotten so bad that you have to wait in line 6 or 7 hours just to withdraw the equivalent of $13.70 in cash.  One man named Yury was waiting for 3 hours in line to withdraw cash and it only moved a little bit.  He was getting more and more fed up as he stood there shivering in Novopushkinsky Square.  So he looked at his friend Boris and said, "I've had enough of this, I'm going to go kill president Putin."  And with that he sprinted off towards the Kremlin.  45 minutes later he came sulking back.  The line still hadn't moved at all.  "Did you kill Putin?" asked Boris.  "No", said Yury, "the line for that was even longer than this one."

 Old Soviet era joke, But appropriate None the less.

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New changes on the frontlines:

The Russians have made it a bit closer to Kyiv, although they still have some distance to go. Bucha and Irpin remain on the frontlines. An attempted push through Brovary was repelled successfully by the Ukrainians, which complicates the potential encirclement of Kyiv. Although small gains were made in the west of Kyiv, it wasn’t anything huge for Russia.

On the bright side for Russian forces today, the city of Chernihiv is now completely encircled. Chernihiv not only is a major regional center, but also a historical/cultural hub in the area, and losing the city would be far more devastating on national morale as opposed to any previous losses.

Progress seems to have slowed down a bit, whether this is because the Russians are taking time to reorganize for a better offensive or due to Russian failures in accounting for logistics and/or combat performance remains to be seen.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-10-22/h_a7f9e315b74913cd4d58f91015f3eba0

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-10

 Wow, if even forum lurker is Reporting backsteps for the Russian military, the Ukrainian army will likely be marching int9 Moscow next week.

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Protests continue in Russian Occupied Ukrainian Cities earlier today... Footage from Melitopol and Berdiansk (Haven't yet tracked down other non-violent protests today elsewhere)



https://twitter.com/oonuch/status/1501932215755698176?s=20&t=lVK0JsZ5GoEdNK-...

https://twitter.com/oonuch/status/1501932258952765447?s=20&t=lVK0JsZ5GoEdNK-...

Encouraging, but I want to see them start collecting scalps.

Who are "they" and whose "scalps" are they supposed to be collecting?

I totally understand and get it and feel the same level of pain and frustration as I read the stories, watch the images of the massive unwarranted and unjustified brutality leveled against not only the Government of Ukraine and military forces, but even more so against civilian populations throughout many parts of Ukraine, and so many actions that from my perspective clearly amount to War Crimes committed by the Russian Regime and Senior Military commanders.

I wish that I had all of the answers for the best ways to stop these atrocities and that the Russian people were able to see what is actually going on and hold those responsible fully accountable for their actions.

Still, I find your comment a bit disturbing, especially within the context of Ukrainian Civilians protesting non-violently in a couple cities under Russian military occupation.

Dehumanization of "the other" has so frequently been the rationale for those who perceive themselves to be aggrieved to then take "righteous revenge" upon the other and frequently turns into and endless cycle of violence and counter-violence.

We see that attitude hardening among many Ukrainians who are growing to hate not just Putin and his stooges, but *all Russians* after having experienced the atrocities at the hand of his war machine.

Fringe groups like the Ukrainian Neo-Nazi / "Far Right" Azov Battalion, which have played a significant role going back to the 2014 War are now producing significant casualties against Russian forces in various theaters of combat, and in many ways helped provide Putin with the "Ukrainians are Neo-Nazis" propaganda BS to sell the "Special Operation" to the Russian public.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

Although I will continue to cheer Ukrainian resistance in the face of such brutality, I take equal cheer when I see Russians finding ways to challenge and confront the totalitarian nature of their own society as well.

Russian conscripts aren't the real enemy here and within Russia Occupied Ukraine angry and militant protesters marching through the centers of cities using a mixture of Russian and Ukrainian are seen as "real people" from the perspective of the Russian soldier, and not the demons they were made out to be.

 I hear what you're saying, but you can understand some of us rude almost rooting for these folks to pick up do pick up automatic rifles and start picking off Is Russian garrisons. Protests like this are good for civilian morale, but it doesn't affect Putin's push on Russia one g****** bit.

And i'm sorryAnd I'm sorry over the fact that yes not All-russian soldiers are big Putin fans and some eand some even unwilling conscripts. But the same could have been said for German forces in World War II and it didn't make me celebrate Allis deliberate Allied victories in history one iota less.

To be Blunt, let their families mourn for their deaths death. As long as this war continues, I will not, But instead will Is it as evidence of one more reason Vladimir Putin and his Circle of cronies need to be on trial at the Hague.

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https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502077318465998848?s=20&t=p18 uid=13804]

A good thread, imo. The key for Ukraine has always been time. The longer they fight, even if territory is lost, the more of a quagmire the war becomes for Russia.

jNK-rLQjquvtlah-kYRxA[/tweet]

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502078979976613912?s=20&t=pjNK-rLQjqu...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502085135667187717?s=20&t=pjNK-rLQjqu...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502078360012349440?s=20&t=pjNK-rLQjqu...

As I said before, Ukraine probably gives up joining NATO and concedes Crimea to Russia.

Putin then gets to spin that back home as a win

Do they still get into the EU? They are probably too poor but it would be a bit of a deterrent.

Yes.

In turn, Ukraine gives up any claims of reparations.

The problem is that Putin sees Ukrainian membership of NATO and the EU as one in the same. That's why Euromaidan happened in the first place, Putin pressured Yanukovych into not singing Ukraine's EU Association Agreement. The whole business about NATO expansion is just manufactured justification for Russia's aggressive actions. If NATO wasn't an issue, there would be something else used as justification. Moldova has neutrality written into the Constitution. But Russia still constantly meddles in and threatens the country for sole purpose of preventing it from integrating with Europe and pursuing EU membership.

Russia is just cutting its loss at this point.

In just about every way, Russian is worse off than before the invasion.

Russia renew NATO's vigor.

Russia's military becomes a joke.

Russia's economy is in the toilet.

 Hopefully true, but I'm seeing nominal  Indication that Russia's intent is actually to abandon wholescale conquering Ukraine, particularly based on the farce of "peace talks" which fell apart the other day in turkey.

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It would be very interesting if the Ukraine crisis pushes Venezuela and Iran closer to the US. They wont be US allies for obvious reasons. But both nations abstained in the UN vote and are currently talking to the US about increasing gas production. Venezuela directly while Iran is under the table.

The Biden administration ripped up the Iran deal, so they left a lot of bad blood there. Venezuela might be more willing to have a deal.

You misspelled  "Trump".

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It would be very interesting if the Ukraine crisis pushes Venezuela and Iran closer to the US. They wont be US allies for obvious reasons. But both nations abstained in the UN vote and are currently talking to the US about increasing gas production. Venezuela directly while Iran is under the table.

The Biden administration ripped up the Iran deal, so they left a lot of bad blood there. Venezuela might be more willing to have a deal.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_the_Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action

The United States announced its withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the "Iran nuclear deal" or the "Iran deal", on May 8, 2018.

And Biden didn't seem too interested in reviving it.

https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/biden-betting-republican-senators-lack-votes-derail-revival-iran-nucle-rcna18174

Now that you've been caught in two outrageously brazen and obvious lies in a row, will you apologize?  Or just keep moving the goalposts with a third lie?

Don't confuse jfern with facts.

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https://twitter.com/AndreiSoldatov/status/1502221544499601411

 This is literally getting to Stalin level s***. Well, Stalin would have had them shot, but at least pre breastniff level Soviet craziness?

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New changes on the frontlines:

The Russians have made it a bit closer to Kyiv, although they still have some distance to go. Bucha and Irpin remain on the frontlines. An attempted push through Brovary was repelled successfully by the Ukrainians, which complicates the potential encirclement of Kyiv. Although small gains were made in the west of Kyiv, it wasn’t anything huge for Russia.

On the bright side for Russian forces today, the city of Chernihiv is now completely encircled. Chernihiv not only is a major regional center, but also a historical/cultural hub in the area, and losing the city would be far more devastating on national morale as opposed to any previous losses.

Progress seems to have slowed down a bit, whether this is because the Russians are taking time to reorganize for a better offensive or due to Russian failures in accounting for logistics and/or combat performance remains to be seen.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-10-22/h_a7f9e315b74913cd4d58f91015f3eba0

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-10

 Wow, if even forum lurker is Reporting backsteps for the Russian military, the Ukrainian army will likely be marching int9 Moscow next week.

I’m not Russian biased lmao.
Everything I report is supported by Western sources. It’s just that this forum really is cherry-picking the times when Ukraine does well and trying to portray it as the complete truth. Look the fact is Russia still has made progress in Ukraine. Each day they do gain more land and another city/town. That is another loss of manpower and resources for Ukraine. Yes I love the videos of patriotic farmers taking military vehicles, but that doesn’t negate the frontline situation.

If anything this really is like the Winter War. While yes a huge moral blow to the Soviets and while the Finns did make a fool out of them…the Soviets still won what they wanted in the end.

 Fair points. But I will say that you you do tend into doomer mode at times.

 I think the tweet threaded above from some dude pointing out that while the Ukraine are making tactical victories come up and Russia has been slowed, Russia Russia is still making strategic advances,  is accurate

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https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502350416897576967

That is amazing news!

If I were Poland, I might have bought that line before the US explicitly refused to send the jets themselves on grounds of escalation, but I wouldn't buy it now. Heavier arms might well be sent to Ukraine, but I don't expect this to change anyone's position on sending jets.

 D*** it tilts. Why do you have to hurt my feelings with a reality check?

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Vindman has had some bad takes about the war. But, the whole "do anything more to help Ukraine = WWIII" narrative is simplistic and tired.

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1502424961318719489?s=20&t=GUEnHrBeli82z...

 I tend to agree with your assessment it's meant, but but Biden is actually right here. We will not fight A-war in Ukraine, and the key word in his 2nd sentence is "directly".

Now send the f****** jets, Joe.

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So it looks like rumors of a supposed Ukrainian counterattack to liberate Mariupol were just propaganda and not true. 

 Citation?

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Something my oldest friend texted to me.  Absolutely worth the 5 minutes read to explain why Russia's military is so bad

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502673952572854278?s=20&t=VKopazV0byqI-cLBHQoYCQ

 Quick preview. It talks about how talks about how the military leadership is kept intentionally castrated and, frankly, stupid by the Russian leadership so it cannot threaten said leadership or the state's security forces. It involves such symptoms as, I kid you not, the Russian mafia regularly shaking down Army bases, even ones where nukes are stationed, with the full tacit support port of the government, and even conscripts being forced into gay prostitution to make cash for hire ups.