MT Congressional Redistricting

[Badger]

How feasible is it to have the Western District contain both Park and Cascade counties, presumably after dumping Flathead County? For example, could a couple of the rural Republican counties south of Helena and Great Falls he carved out into the eastern district to even out the population closely enough? Open to any suggestions here.

Although Glacier County does provide a substantial vote margin for Democrats despite its relatively small population, it's just not worth it to Democrats keeping it in the Western District as that also means keeping Flathead, which is the major Republican vote sink in Western Montana.

[Badger]

Why would California lose a district and Montana gain one?

Because it was on the border for the 53rd seat and its growth rate this decade has been slightly slower than the US as a whole which matters a lot when it comes to 53 seats.

And California, being one of the largest states in the nation, has a disproportionate effect on that growth. The larger you are, the harder a state has to work to hold onto it's seats. There is a reason why reapportionment last century saw the Midwest/Mid-Atlantic drop tons of seats each decade.

I have a .02 difference in favor of Montana right now but it's pretty stupid that more people in California lose representation than people in Montana gain.

Montana voters are the best though, can you imagine those Trump-Gianforte-Tester voters determining control of the US senate in 2020?

No, I'd rather imagine DC getting actual representation. Montana does not deserve two congressional districts for their tiny, homogenous population. What a farce.

Actually they do, but the best route to that is to increase the size of Congress to wear we base the population of a district to be approximately equivalent to Wyoming.

[Badger]

Look at the Whitefish '18 numbers though. A lot of the new residents have arrived since 2016. For example Dave Fern (D) from HD 5, which is all of Whitefish.

2016
Dave Fern 56.7%
Opponent  43.2%
D+13

2018
Dave Fern 69.1%
Opponent 30.9%
D+38

So that's a 25 point swing in 2 years. They are building houses in Whitefish like crazy and the majority of residents moving in are hipsters from Washington and Colorado etc. and they bring their progressive voting patterns with them.

Tester won Senate District 3 (Whitefish and N. Kalispell) in 2018 by 4 points whereas incumbent Keith Regier won it by 13 points in '16. That's a 17 point swing in 2 years.

Interesting indeed. Do you have any insight on Ravalli County, which appears to be second only to Flathead as being the major Republican vote sink in Western Montana?