Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[Badger]

Biden was always going to do poorly in Iowa, but his collapse in NH is a bit alarming. I would not be surprised if some polls coming out of SC would show an erosion of his support to someone like Steyer, who has made inroad with the AA community.

The calendar is brutal for Biden. Imagine if South Carolina was in any position earlier in the caldenar than 4th.

Everyone keeps repeating this, but the sad truth is that the Biden campaign laid their bed in this regard. Everyone knows that minorities have powerful influence on the Dem primary, campaigns can easily wait for Nevada or South Carolina to start building momentum considering the makeup of Super Tuesday. Regardless of how high Biden polled, he could have kept up the appearance that Nevada and South Carolina were where he was focusing, and would always get the lions share of attention. But...he couldn't. His campaign put more resources than were necessary in the white states and clearly made  pays for delegates. If Biden got 12% in both states but had successfully managed expectations, these states could be the buildup to a crescendo in the diverse contests, rather than a decline towards a firewall that may be collapsing.

But he had no choice. My neck as the presumptive, and for most of the race literal, front runner with a national profile, and one who is campaign on the theme of Crossing the aisle and bringing together all sides progressives, moderates, Etc, and above all the candidate with the best chance of taking Trump on toe to toe and nationally and beating him, simply could not forward to then just skip the two earliest and most important State races. It would have undermined the very basis of his campaign, and probably gone about as well as giuliani's Florida first strategy.

He simply did not have the luxury of a Bloomberg style candidacy I'm saying hey, sorry we got in too late for the first four races, we'll see you on super Tuesday and the other races composing 96% of the delegate race.

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One group of people that are probably really angry now are all the candidates that got no traction because Biden was there, people like Cory Booker, its kind of funny how Biden arguably blocked stronger candidates from gaining any ground only to basically collapse at the end himself.

Kamala Harris should still be in this race. It's disgusting.

I think she was hobbled by a loss of steam and a crummy campaign but yes she should absolutely still be in.

Why? She was an awful campaigner. Far worse than Biden even.

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Yep.  Biden is over.  Totally incompetent execution.  These are embarrassing results for a campaign that's supposed to be run by some of the best in the biz, and I would never trust a campaign that executes like this to beat Trump.

It's a shame, Biden is a really great guy and would have been a good president.  He has by far the most complete resume and best track record of success in the race, represents a diverse and winning coalition, and holds positions that Democrats can run on and win.  He's been treated like absolute dogsh*t by everyone this campaign, especially the media, and persevered for a year only to implode because the folks running his campaign couldn't drive turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar are all good choices for the nominee, in that order IMO.  I'm on board Bloomberg 2020 at this point.

This almost nails my thoughts as well.

Starts looking like Joe Biden is done or close to it. I didn't expect him to win Iowa and New Hampshire to begin with, but these results are beyond embarrassing for a former vice president, who served two terms under an incredibly popular president, until just three years ago. Maybe it's just about time to accept defeat. I thought he ran great ads, but it seems his groundgame an utter disaster and his performance on the trail underwhelming. Certainly not as good as 2008 and 2012. It's really sad, because he would be a spectular president who can get things done and restore international relations. Aside from the fact that he's a fine person with the right moral compass to be head of state. It's too sad, Uncle Joe, but I will always be a big fan of yours. Th best vice president in history.
 
As things now stand, I'll be rooting for Mike Bloomberg. He's not just extremely qualified for the job, he's the kind of pragmatic problem solver that is needed to fix things after Trump. He also runs a strong campaign operation and, to be honest, makes a more vital impression than Joe Biden. Mayor Pete is also someone who I like a lot, but I doubt he's getting nomination due to a lack of minority support. He'd be a great cabinet member.

Bloomberg can't win the nomination (despite trying to bribe his way to victory). Unite around the most electable and plausible center left alternative, Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

I like Pete and will gladly campaign for him in November if he's the nominee.

But I'm sorry, we are already facing what will be a close race thanks to the economy being a good shape ( thanks again, Obama) and the Electoral College. I simply do not believe that America is ready to elect an openly gay man president in 2020. It's not right, but it's fact. At any rate, it is far too likely a risk. And that risk is certainly augmented by the fact that said candidate's prior experience in Government consists being mayor of a town of hundred thousand people oh, notwithstanding his impressive Military Intelligence background.

So no, buttigieg is not the most electable center-left alternative. He is frankly probably the least electable of any of the major candidates, and head to head polls with Trump have consistently shown that. Whether because he's gay, uniquely inexperienced compared to any modern-day nominee other than Trump himself, or the man has simply shown minimal appeal to voters of color, any or All the above. He's just not a good candidate for November

EDIT: Klobuchar /Buttigieg 2020

[Badger]

Return to this prediction in May to see if I'm correct:

Biden will get 2nd or 3rd in NV, rebound to strongly win SC, win the South while losing elsewhere to Sanders on Super Tuesday, Sanders builds a small delegate lead that never goes away and puts away the nomination after winning New York in April (Biden-Sanders duel from March-May).

And Bloomberg?

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https://twitter.com/NBCNewsPR/status/1228818198386106380

This is the strategy?  Performative outrage at Sanders supporters?

The moderate Dems do not have the fortitude to win this one.  Not even close.  It's about god damned time the professionally offended take a back seat.  We'll be knocking on doors and getting in the face of the MAGA crowd.  You'll be home having panic attacks about the latest Tweet from a Sanders supporter that hurt your feelings.  And we'll continue to put up W's.  You'll continue to curl into a ball and pray that these listless "attacks" will work.  Have fun.

Lol settle down Spartacus. No one is buying the tough guy act. It’s not about “crying” about his supporters. It’s about the constant hatred and vitriol that a significant portion of his hardcore supporters constantly sling at anyone who doesn’t agree with them. People are sick of it. They attack fellow liberals more than Trump

We're not liberals, guy.

My reference to "fellow liberals" was just referring to people who fall on the left or "liberal" end of the political spectrum, as opposed to the right or "conservative" end. It's not that deep....

You have to be careful when you use that term now, it's somehow become pejorative on the left too.

"The liberal is accustomed to appearing radical to conservatives, counter-revolutionary to radicals, and as a fink to activists of all Persuasions." Harry Ashmore

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Ok I get Biden polls the best out of the group normally but is anyone not concerned his campaign not only has been massively lackluster but that he shows all the warning signs Hillary had? He doesn’t inspire young people, he did awful in the first two rural states when he was supposed to be the WWC whisper, and he gaffes all the time. Seriously I don’t know how anyone can say with a straight face that Bernie is a guaranteed loss yet feel comfortable with Joe

The best I can explain this is as follows. First off, you're right. The potential enthusiasm Sanders could bring to a campaign versus Biden is the number one reason to vote for Sanders. There's a decent argument that to beat Trump one has to inspire and bring out to the polls usually reluctant voters. Again, Sanders has a better chance of doing that than Biden. Yes, Biden could lose. Hillary leading all the polls, and yes beat Trump by a few million votes, but that damn Electoral College still pulled an inside straight on us.

All this said, I fear Sanders is too much of a Gamble. He is a bona fide radical, and Americans are generally feeling to upbeat about the economy right now to vote for a radical. As old school Republican very sagely put it, Bernie had a much better chance of winning in 2016 when 36% of Voters had a positive view of the direction of the country's economy, as opposed to now in about 60% do. Yes, as another poster I forget whom mentioned that there's a lot of wiggle room in those numbers to where people are still personally concerned about their household finances and whether or not their jobs, their kids education, or Healthcare, could wipe them out. But those voters are much more likely to be swayed by a message of incremental change rather than Revolution.

Assuming there is not a tangible drop off with the economy within the next several months, voters will reject Trump despite the economy rather than because of it. That's a good argument for biting as opposed to Sanders.

Also, Biden has been in the public eye for decades, including eight years as vice president. He's a known commodity, and unlike Hillary Clinton who was aggressively and studiously demonized by the right for a quarter-century before her presidential election, Biden has survived largely intact. Yes, the Republican smear machine and media will land-based whoever the nominee is as an out-of-touch radical, blah blah blah. The difference is there is so much that could realistically stick to Sanders, as it did with Clinton, in a way that just wouldn't resonate to voters when attacking Biden.

What are they going to bring up?, he played rise of British politicians speech when running for president over 30 years ago. Yeah, I can literally count on one hand the number of Swing voters Nationwide who will switch because of that. He has a tendency towards mouth prop isms and gaffs? Please. What person in their right mind is going to say to themselves, I wasn't decided, but Biden shooting from the lip and occasionally getting his words mangled have convinced me to support.....Donald Trump?

While the thought of sacrificing turnout for maintaining support in middle-class suburbs by choosing Biden over Sanders is in of itself its own risk. There's a valid argument to make that running a 90s Democrat running on a platform of incremental reform plus not being Donald Trump blue what should have been a winnable election in 2016. But again, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton. He has nowhere near the baked in negative views that the quarter-century of right-wing smears inflicted on Hillary. And even the vaunted Republican media machine can't recreate Rome in a day. They'll have about 25 weeks to demonize Joe Biden, not 25 years. And they just have so so much less to work with.

The other aspect to it is Clinton's organization ran a god-awful campaign. Not campaigning at all in Wisconsin? Running ads in New Orleans not to bolster down-ticket races but for the sole purpose of padding the Nationwide popular majority?!? F****** unreal. One can readily argue that Biden and his campaign will not be caught napping this time. Stander stand that winning back Michigan - - practically a given I think - - Pennsylvania, and above all Wisconsin, it's going to be a fight. In other words, buying can run a campaign that Hillary should have and would have won with just buy a, not running a brain-dead campaign strategy, and B, simply not being Hillary Clinton w h o m most Americans viscerally distrusted, or even actively disliked.

On that point, Hillary did always give the impression of speaking like a politician out of both sides of her mouth. In some ways, Biden's direct honesty and plain speech, even when garble, gives the opposite impression, even for someone who's been actively in politics for 40 years now. That's a benefit Hillary Clinton would never have, and on which he can reasonably match Sanders.

Tl;dr version: Sanders radical agenda is too great a risk when 60% of Americans approve of the economy's direction, and leaves too many openings for Republicans to scare middle-class and upper-middle-class Suburban Heights who dislike Trump into still voting for him as the lesser of two evils. And while Hillary Clinton didn't win running on a platform of incremental Progressive policy change plus not being Donald Trump due to being villified in most Americans Minds for a quarter-century, the same just doesn't hold true for Biden, who's playing spoken nature will be as much an advantage against Trump as Sanders own honesty, but without the considerable ideological baggage. Plus simply not choosing campaign tactics on the mistaken belief that beating Trump is a foregone conclusion.

EDIT: Someday I swear I need to get a new voice to text app

[Badger]

This was truly an epic performance. Malarkey was destroyed, etc. After settling all family business, it seemed Biden was shaping up to have a good night, but he did even better than expected. I'm glad the candidate I support did so well, but beyond that, I'm comforted that he proved to have support with an extremely broad, multi-regional, cross-demographic coalition that could win everywhere. Any demographic of size, white or black, college-educated or not, Joe Biden had a major showing in it.

The results in Maine, Massachusetts, and Minnesota were the most surprising wins considering he spent no time, money, or effort in them. But I'm struck by the results in my home state:





Biden did stronger than Hillary Clinton! Sure, she got a higher percentage of the vote, but underneath the surface, Biden won and with big turnout across the board. In Fairfax County, Biden got 38% more votes than HRC. In Chesterfield County, Biden got 48% more votes. The story is consistent across the suburbs. But even more impressively, this held everywhere, even in areas Democrats are thought to be hemorrhaging support. In mountainous Giles County (Romney +25, Trump +48), Biden got 34% more votes. In the heavily evangelical Bedford County (Romney +44, Trump +50), Biden got 90%(!) more votes.

I don't know what the general election will look like, but there are clearly a lot of people beyond the 2016 electorate comfortable voting for Joe Biden. That's a good sign moving forward.

It's almost like Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate who many people hated, while no one hates Joe Biden.

This can't be said enough.  I've seen many posts stating things like "Well I guess democrats haven't learned their lessons from 2016."  I think those posts are missing the main lesson from 2016, which is that Hillary was not well-liked by the American electorate.  Biden has his faults but people love the guy, myself included.  I was actually a big fan of Biden in 2008 and would've voted for him if he had a chance by the time my primary came around.

This really really can't be said enough. We are polarized enough that it might be overstating it some to say that Americans probably love the guy, but the relative approval / disapproval between he and Hillary is about as polar opposite as one can get in this environment.

Yes, we learned our lessons from 2016. One, don't nominate Hillary Clinton. 2, don't campaign or run ads in places like Texas or New Orleans until you have the industrial Midwest clamped down.

[Badger]

The swamp monster won! Yay!

Yes honey. In November 2016.

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This video clip is just amazing. Turn on the sound. The guy here really sounds like Obama:

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1235052111358046208

You seriously never watched Key & Peele?

Though In fairness, Jordan Peele was the one who always did the Obama impersonations. Pretty good ones too. Keegan-Michael Key play the role, equally awesomely, of Obama's anger translator.

[Badger]

SNIP

It's almost like Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate who many people hated, while no one hates Joe Biden.

This can't be said enough.  I've seen many posts stating things like "Well I guess democrats haven't learned their lessons from 2016."  I think those posts are missing the main lesson from 2016, which is that Hillary was not well-liked by the American electorate.  Biden has his faults but people love the guy, myself included.  I was actually a big fan of Biden in 2008 and would've voted for him if he had a chance by the time my primary came around.

This really really can't be said enough. We are polarized enough that it might be overstating it some to say that Americans probably love the guy, but the relative approval / disapproval between he and Hillary is about as polar opposite as one can get in this environment.

Yes, we learned our lessons from 2016. One, don't nominate Hillary Clinton. 2, don't campaign or run ads in places like Texas or New Orleans until you have the industrial Midwest clamped down.

Or you have the Bloomberg machine ready to pour unlimited resources into both. Beto's campaign showed that you can reap good results from states like Texas, but it needs to be kickstarted with a millions for the many metro areas ads and their infrastructure difficulties. Bloomberg can kinda take care of that stuff in his sleep, as weird as it sounds. Bloomberg paid experts and data HQ are Bidens  for the GE.

Oh, I hear you, and Bloomberg becoming a major sugar daddy For Democrats this year, while not likely to the extent of our fantasies, would be awesome.

My point is that the Clinton campaign was filled with such truly historic levels of hubris and overconfidence, even two degrees that were not justified by their large poll leads in the months before the election. Campaigning in Texas which, at least in 2016, seemed to be such a reach, while completely ignoring Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin, was beyond electoral malpractice. I've mentioned this example many times, but will do so again. Donna brazile actually convinced the campaign to run television ads in the New Orleans Metro Market for the sole purpose of inflating the National popular vote margins because ( checks notes) "reasons". All the while Clinton did not campaign in Pennsylvania or Michigan until one time in the last few days when they finally caught wind that things were collapsing there oh, and didn't. Campaign. In. Wisconsin. Once.

I am not hearing now saying 8 months before the election to entirely write off campaigning in Texas, if for no other reason than to help some of the congressional candidates there. But by God there better be 10 + Point leads in the above-mentioned states, with respondents firmly committed to voting for Biden at least multiple points about 50%, before they spend a dime running ads in San Antonio.

But again, that is pretty much the opposite of what the Clinton campaign did. Everyone wants to parse the losing campaign tactics afterwards and label them as the worst ever, etc etc. However, it is truly arguable that the Clinton 2016 campaign was the most ill run, ill thought-out, portly strategized (non-primary) presidential campaign in modern American history. Well other candidates like McGovern and Goldwater did worse based on their own deep flaws, in terms of actual strategy and planning I'm having a hard time thinking of an actual campaign that was more ill run or planned. The closest I can conceive of would be maybe Thomas Deweese in 1948, and that's probably a tie at best considering he made only one major, albeit really huge, mistake of listening to his advisers and not going on the offensive against Truman when his gut was telling him Harry's Whistlestop tour against the do nothing Republican Congress was making an impact.

I cannot conceive that the Biden Campaign Will underestimate the real chance that Trump could ride a strong economy to winning the Electoral College again. I was thinking today they are to make their campaign theme song the who's Won't Get Fooled Again.

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https://twitter.com/TweetingYarnie/status/1235323587009142794

Shoo, Trumpist Republican, shoo. You and your hypocrisy are unwelcome here. Go back to Shilling for the guy who desperately wants to cut Social Security

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I want this man to laugh in Trump's face like he did Paul Ryan's.

He will. And it'll come across just as perfectly.

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Given that Bernie is the only candidate left who cares about the Palestinian people I will vote for Bernie then sit out the Presidential line in November and just vote Dem downballot.

You're really going to put Trump back in office because Biden doesn't hate Israel enough?

It's 2016 all over again.  Don't ever try to talk about Trump like you care.  You care more about feeling pure and holding the moral high ground than you do about anything Trump does.

Don't play that bullsh**t with me, Biden is not entitled to my vote. I am not voting for a candidate who calls my people crazy and will do nothing to prevent my homeland from becoming a Bantustan go cry a river to someone else.

There is a difference between hating Israel and sticking up for my people's rights try again.

Biden's not entitled to your vote personally, but all the people who will be seriously harmed by a second Trump term are. Think of all the government programs Trump and the Republicans will slash, those who die preventably from our health care system, the worldwide victims of climate change, etc.

Once again, Trump is not losing Florida, he's still immensely popular here the Dems have no ground game, we have a super popular GOP governor and government who will reflect positively on Trump

Fllrida is tge definition of a swing state. You do NOT have that as an excuse to say 'screw you' to all the people McCarther pointed out will be harmed by Trumps policies.