CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Badger]

Well, you shouldn't read too much into primary numbers ... but those numbers are really good for Republicans:

In the competetive 2002 and 2006 elections for Senate and Governor (2002, not 2006), primary turnout was about equal. And now it is 2/3 Republican.

In the 2006 Governor election, Bredesen got wayyyy more votes in the primary than his Republican opponents and wayyyy more votes than he did this time.

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

[Badger]

Well, you shouldn't read too much into primary numbers ... but those numbers are really good for Republicans:

In the competetive 2002 and 2006 elections for Senate and Governor (2002, not 2006), primary turnout was about equal. And now it is 2/3 Republican.

In the 2006 Governor election, Bredesen got wayyyy more votes in the primary than his Republican opponents and wayyyy more votes than he did this time.

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

You do not understand what I am talking about.

Comparisons with the 2010 and 2014 primaries are meaningless, because those were really good for Republicans as well.

We need to compare it with the more competetive 2002 and 2006 primaries.

The primary results yesterday are much better for Republicans than those in 2002 and 2006 and more in line with those in 2010 and 2014, which produced strong GOP results in the general election.

So, comparing good years for Republicans to 2018 isn't helpful in analyzing whether it may be a good year for Democrats?

Got it. Hot take of the night, Tender.

[Badger]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say the results tonight are good news for Rs.

Yes, having your opposing party's turnout rate increase by more than triple your own, is the quintessential definition of "good news".

Carry on, chaps. 

[Badger]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say the results tonight are good news for Rs.

Yes, having your opposing party's turnout rate increase by more than triple your own, is the quintessential definition of "good news".

Carry on, chaps. 

If Rs already have 70% of the primary vote and increase by another 15%, it doesn't matter if the Dems increase their 30% share by 50% ...

Rs are still massively favoured and have a huge enthusiasm advantage.

Oh good God....

NO ONE, including the author of that tweet, even implied that Bredsen is a lock based on these numbers. Merely that, as simple math will show, Democrats are far more enthused this year. Get it?

[Badger]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say the results tonight are good news for Rs.

Yes, having your opposing party's turnout rate increase by more than triple your own, is the quintessential definition of "good news".

Carry on, chaps.  

If Rs already have 70% of the primary vote and increase by another 15%, it doesn't matter if the Dems increase their 30% share by 50% ...

Rs are still massively favoured and have a huge enthusiasm advantage.

Oh good God....

NO ONE, including the author of that tweet, even implied that Bredsen is a lock based on these numbers. Merely that, as simple math will show, Democrats are far more enthused this year. Get it?

They are just a bit more enthused than in 2010 and 2014, but not nearly as enthused as in 2006 - and even then it wasn't enough to win the Senate ...

Bottom line: many Republicans need to stay home in November and Indys need to turn out massively for Bredesen and Dean to win.

In Austria I suppose a full 50 plus percent increase is considered "just a bit more". So what I thought was simple nonsense is obviously just a cultural barrier.

[Badger]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say the results tonight are good news for Rs.

Yes, having your opposing party's turnout rate increase by more than triple your own, is the quintessential definition of "good news".

Carry on, chaps.  

If Rs already have 70% of the primary vote and increase by another 15%, it doesn't matter if the Dems increase their 30% share by 50% ...

Rs are still massively favoured and have a huge enthusiasm advantage.

Oh good God....

NO ONE, including the author of that tweet, even implied that Bredsen is a lock based on these numbers. Merely that, as simple math will show, Democrats are far more enthused this year. Get it?

They are just a bit more enthused than in 2010 and 2014, but not nearly as enthused as in 2006 - and even then it wasn't enough to win the Senate ...

Bottom line: many Republicans need to stay home in November and Indys need to turn out massively for Bredesen and Dean to win.

In Austria I suppose a full 50 plus percent increase is considered "just a bit more". So what I thought was simple nonsense is obviously just a cultural barrier.

Don't get nasty ...

I can do the math for you (because you seem to have the same math skills as Trump):

If you have 10 Republican bananas from 2014 and increase them by 15% ... you get 11 and a half bananas.

If you have 4 Democratic bananas from 2014 and increase them by 50% ... you get 6 bananas.

Republican bananas made up 71% of all bananas in 2014.

Republican bananas made up 66% of all bananas in 2018.

So, the 50% increase for Democrats is only relative.

Of course it's "relative". Any measurement of growth is "relative", genius.

So you know what you can do with your bananas.

[Badger]

My last post about this election.

A republican increase of 15% compared to their wave year in '14 is a good thing. Yes, the Dems increased 50% but it's normal in a "D wave" year.

Look, there are polls showing Bredensen ahead/tied and Karl Dean down by only 5-10 points if I remember correctly.

These results are good results if you look at the polls.

Again: only a good sign. General election is a different story.

My last post on this thread will be skipped in lieu of me banging my head on the keyboard.

[Badger]

Anyway yeah, Bredesen and Dean will probably lose, but most people already knew that. The key is that Dems are going to massively improve here (and mostly everywhere.)

THANK you!

Nice to see someone here who isn't a complete idiot at interpreting statistics.

[Badger]

Anyway yeah, Bredesen and Dean will probably lose, but most people already knew that. The key is that Dems are going to massively improve here (and mostly everywhere.)

THANK you!

Nice to see someone here who isn't a complete idiot at interpreting statistics.

Badger, I literally just posted about polling.

Again, Bredensen is ahead of Blackburn right now. (If polling isn't wrong).

Emerson actually shows Dean up by 4/2 against Black/Boyd.

Obviously Dem's are going to improve a lot. Look at these numbers, almost unreal.

Now, looking at these numbers I was expecting something big to happen in this primary. Yes, D turnout is up but I didn't expect R turn out to grow by 15%. Republicans still have their huge base and that's good news in a state like Tennessee. Again, maybe not exactly good compared to the previous years but VERY GOOD when you look at these terrible polls coming out. These numbers are enough for a comfortable-ish win in November because TN is very red.

NOW. Will republicans turn out again or will many of them change to Bredensen? How will independents vote? We don't know. That's the question.

By the way, we are here to discuss. You came to this thread and all you did was attack people. "You can't do math", "You're idiot".

I'm not sensitive but I would rather have a discussion. I think mods agree with me.

For the umpteenth time, my point, and admitted frustration, is that neither I nor the tweet I referred to ever claim that this demonstrated Branson was a lock, or even favored, in November. That. Is. Not. The. Point. Either. Of. Us. Made.

Your and tenders point was that a dramatic increase in voter turnout among Democrats was great news for the Republicans. That is silly. End of discussion.

[Badger]

So looks like we won Shelby County (duh) and flipped some offices there, good. Of course we won, it takes disaster tier dem candidates to lose a majority black county lol, but the margins we got out of shelby tonight were absolutely pathetic, We should be winning by more than teen mov's in Shelby County TN.

From what Memphis posted on a a d, winning the Shelby County mayoral race was actually a big deal for Democrats. Holding the election in off-year primaries depressed turnout, and manage to keep down pallet GOP strength in control in that county, surprisingly enough.

[Badger]

Dems outvoting Republicans 56-43 in MO-02. Caveats about primary turnout, but that seems very strong for Democrats in a seat like MO-02.

yes ahahahah!!

We are going to defeat Ann Wagner!!!!!!!

Wagner was for all purposes essentially unopposed, so...

[Badger]

Matt Morgan is claiming victory in his MI-01 D write-in bid, though we may not know officially for weeks.

UPPER MICHIGAN (WLUC) - Democrat Matt Morgan says unofficial vote counts from Tuesday's primary show he will be on the ballot to face Republican Rep. Jack Bergman in November's general election.

According to Morgan's campaign, unofficial vote counts from 20 counties in the 32-county district indicate there were 20,000-plus write-in votes cast in the Democratic race for Congress. Morgan is the only candidate running as a write-in. Grand Traverse County alone had well over 7,000 write-in votes cast for a Democrat in Michigan’s 1st Congressional District. In 2014, zero write-in votes were cast in Grand Traverse County in that race.

In a formula set by the State of Michigan, Morgan must receive at least five percent of the total ballots cast in the race with the most votes in the Democratic primary in Michigan’s 1st. For example, if this year’s gubernatorial race had 100,000 votes cast (which would be up 30-plus percent from historic midterm primary averages), the threshold for Morgan to make the general election ballot would be 5,000.

http://www.uppermichiganssource.com/content/news/Morgan--490332281.html

Great news. This district is a long shot (putting it mildly) but it's still nice to have a warm body there just in case.

That's what I've heard, but I wonder how. The seat had a democratic representative up to 2010 after all. It seems like it would be the perfect place for Blue Collar resentment against Trump to Bubble over in a wave year.

[Badger]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

Montgomery County resident here. Let me calm your fears about Nancy Floreen, there's a zero percent chance Elrich isn't going to be the next Montgomery County Executive. Nobody likes Floreen, people here are partisan and aren't going to vote for a centrist spoiler.

How low Montgomery county has fallen)))) Not long ago it elected a sensible politicians of all sorts (sometimes - even sensible Republicans of very sane variety). Now it's simply a hyperparisan army of "bold progressives", who doesn't know, how to think, and simply press one familiar button))))))

The smugness of moderate heroism is reeking out of this post.

Thank you, Sir! I expected exactly this from "proud socialist"))))

World's Last semi liberal Republican, in that I think Kasich is a bit too conservative for me, and I also can't avoid the reeking of moderate hero smugness here. Just saying.

[Badger]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

Montgomery County resident here. Let me calm your fears about Nancy Floreen, there's a zero percent chance Elrich isn't going to be the next Montgomery County Executive. Nobody likes Floreen, people here are partisan and aren't going to vote for a centrist spoiler.

How low Montgomery county has fallen)))) Not long ago it elected a sensible politicians of all sorts (sometimes - even sensible Republicans of very sane variety). Now it's simply a hyperparisan army of "bold progressives", who doesn't know, how to think, and simply press one familiar button))))))

The smugness of moderate heroism is reeking out of this post.

Thank you, Sir! I expected exactly this from "proud socialist"))))

World's Last semi liberal Republican, in that I think Kasich is a bit too conservative for me, and I also can't avoid the reeking of moderate hero smugness here. Just saying.

Being slightly more liberal then Kasich, IMHO, is NOT enough to make you a "semi liberal Republican", sir. To deserve such honor you must be Charles Mathias at least, and, sir, you are not Charles Mathias)))))

er, thank you I think?

[Badger]

Dems outvoting Republicans 56-43 in MO-02. Caveats about primary turnout, but that seems very strong for Democrats in a seat like MO-02.

yes ahahahah!!

We are going to defeat Ann Wagner!!!!!!!

Wagner was for all purposes essentially unopposed, so...

So? The Senate Republican primary was competitive(ish), Republicans turned out for that.

I'd forgotten about that. Still, as you say, only competitive ish.

Not a fan of Wagner to put it mildly when one considers her gay bashing tv ads in Prior races. Let's just say I'm not letting myself get absorbed into irrational enthusiasm quite yet.

[Badger]

Just some comparisons on fully-reported WI counties:

2016 Presidential vs 2018 Primary (margin):
Door: GOP +3 / DEM +10
Fond du Lac: GOP +26 / GOP +36
Walworth: GOP +20 / GOP +18

Wow. What happened with Fond du Lac beating the hell out of the trend (or was this a typo)?

[Badger]

HAHAHAHAHA

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1029558706575495168

Goodnight, sweet prince.

To think Sabato moved the race from Lean D to Tossup because he entered lol.

They moved it back, lol:

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/1029559048465723392

My God, they actually KEPT it as "toss-up" right until T-Paw lost?!?

What rubes.

[Badger]

Much like Kenosha, GOP pulls off a bare win in Racine (50.8-49.2); was Trump +4 in 2016.

That's actually a pretty weak swing.

[Badger]

oMg MNGOP iS dOnE 4eVeR wOrSt NuMbERs iN tHE HisTOry.

GOP Primaries:

Gov
2010: 130k
2014: 184k
2018: 311k+

Sen
2012: 123k
2014: 180k
2018: 282k/292k+

Pretty meaningless once you compare them to Democratic numbers, but thanks anyways.

[Badger]

Gordon is about the best we will get out of a state like Wyoming, and especially so because it is so reassuring and nice to see the Trump endorsed candidate lose.

[Badger]

I still it's possible Ward wins the primary outright, but I'll guess McSally 43%, Ward 37%, Arpaio 10%.

It would take Arpaio unexpectedly collapsing literally overnight, and considering his cultists are even more fanatical than Trump's, that's highly unlikely.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/kelleratlarge/status/1037143857824194560

Well f***, easily the most disappointing election of the cycle thus far!

Seriously? Even among primaries for you Democrats this is worse than Lipinski surviving? Or expanding to all elections this is worse than Ohio 12, or the special elections in Kansas, South Carolina, Arizona, and Georgie you all nearly lost?

A little perspective is due here, man