French presidential election, 2022

[Antonio the Sixth]

In 2017, local favourite son Fillon won Sarthe with 29%. So far, Macron is at 26% there (up 6), Le Pen at 34% (up 13) and Pécresse at... 6% (down 23).

If Pecresse could expect a native daughter effect anywhere, it would probably be in Yvelines. She has 8.2% there, with 44 of 259 communes reporting.

If she does get a native-daughter effect, it will be in the Eastern tip of the department, near the Paris region - the area around Vélizy-Villacoublay and Versailles. This is the area she used to represent and has her political machine.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In 2017, local favourite son Fillon won Sarthe with 29%. So far, Macron is at 26% there (up 6), Le Pen at 34% (up 13) and Pécresse at... 6% (down 23).

If Pecresse could expect a native daughter effect anywhere, it would probably be in Yvelines. She has 8.2% there, with 44 of 259 communes reporting.

If she does get a native-daughter effect, it will be in the Eastern tip of the department, near the Paris region - the area around Vélizy-Villacoublay and Versailles. This is the area she used to represent and has her political machine.

If you had to make an educated guess, how well do you think she does in Vélizy-Villacoublay?

If I want to be generous, maybe 15%? Even that would be a paltry result given the circumstances.

[Antonio the Sixth]

With 50% of the vote counted (coming largely from the most rural half of France, as big cities always report last):

Le Pen 27.5%
Macron 26.7%
Mélenchon 18.4%
Zemmour 6.7%
Pécresse 4.7%
Jadot 4%
Lassalle 4% (this is how you know it's a very rural sample)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Macron seems considerably less triumphalist than I expected/he was in 2017. Hopefully that leads to a more collegiate second term should he win one.

I doubt it. At least assuming he gets a majority in the legislatives, he'll continue to rule like a monarch and ignore any criticism.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Macron seems considerably less triumphalist than I expected/he was in 2017. Hopefully that leads to a more collegiate second term should he win one.

I doubt it. At least assuming he gets a majority in the legislatives, he'll continue to rule like a monarch and ignore any criticism.

Who did you vote for?

Jadot

[Antonio the Sixth]

With 65% counted, Macron finally pulls ahead of Le Pen. Both are around 27%. Mélenchon at 18.8%, still behind his projected score.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Basically the projections are implying massive Mélenchon scores in the Paris area, to the point that he should be ahead in a lot of it. We'll have to see if that actually pans out, but if true that seems like something that might have big implications for local politics. I'd be curious to see how the legislatives play out there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The scores coming out of Ile-de-France are absolutely bonkers. Mélenchon is ahead in Seine-et-Marne, normally a very right-wing exurban hellscape that I expected to go easily for Le Pen, or at most for Macron if he won big. And remember Vélizy, Pécresse's old stronghold? Well, Mélenchon came in second there with 21% (Pécresse was at 11% lol). Absolutely wild stuff.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It is patently clear from both his surge in the polls and the pattern of his support - quite different to last time in some seriously suggestive ways! - that Melenchon benefited from a huge wave of tactical voting and that the people who voted for other Left candidates were people who think the man is too much of an [expletive deleted] to cast their vote for. There is always a hard limit on tactical voting potential, and I tend to think that Melenchon hit his. In any case, he's a bad man and you shouldn't feel sorry for him, even if it would (obviously) be preferable if he had reached the second round instead of Le Pen.

Exactly.

Speaking for myself, and in response to some Professional Leftists on here who make it their duty to remonstrate to other people about their voting choices (hilariously, the very same people who whined about "voter shaming" in the 2020 US election), let me be very clear. I didn't vote for Mélenchon because I don't want him to win. I don't want him as my president. I'm sorry if that upsets your high-minded leftist sensibilities sitting from halfway across the world, but in my case there is nothing "tactical" about voting for Mélenchon. I've already made it clear that I'd vote for Macron in a Macron-Mélenchon runoff, and if you think that makes me a neolib, be my guest, but don't act like all of us Jadot/Hidalgo/Roussel voters are just lost sheep from the Mélenchon bandwagon. We never were part of this bandwagon and we never will be.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've already made it clear that I'd vote for Macron in a Macron-Mélenchon runoff, and if you think that makes me a neolib, be my guest, but don't act like all of us Jadot/Hidalgo/Roussel voters are just lost sheep from the Mélenchon bandwagon. We never were part of this bandwagon and we never will be.

I actually like listening to Macron's speeches.  Maybe I'm the only one.  He's very old-fashioned.  He even uses the simple past tense.  I remember at Samuel Paty's funeral he said "Pourquoi fut-il tué?" I guess that makes him easy to understand for non-native speakers.  Beyond that, though, he seems genuinely concerned about people.  I know that many leftist francophones will rant about his neoliberalism, and I know that those on the right call him a sell-out.  I guess that goes with the territory for a moderate hero.  I'm not sure who I'd vote for were I a citizen of France, but I think they could do worse than Macron. 

I don't know as much about Mélenchon, but every time I see him on the news it is about something offensive.  His demeanor is not unlike Donald Trump.  He insults people, made public mockery of a reporter whose Languedoc accent was too pronounced for his tastes, freely exaggerates by casting about terms like "fasciste" and "espion".  That's not the language of statecraft.  Regardless of his politics he seems dangerously unhinged at times.  I'd probably go with Hidalgo as well if my priorities were in the policies she emphasizes on her official website.  I'm not necessarily saying that they do, but if they did, I think she is a clearer thinker than Mélenchon, and easier to trust and to predict.

Oh no, please don't misunderstand. Macron is scum. I don't have much of anything positive to say about him, beyond the fact that at least he's not a Putin apologist. Personally, I don't see any sign that he's "genuinely concerned about people" - all I've seen from him is the contempt and arrogance of someone who grew up all his life thinking he was smarter than everyone else and was Destined for Greatness. Whenever he talks about the least fortunate, his instinct is always focused on the ways in which they're a drag on society, and that they're just too lazy to pull themselves together. You get the idea. Even above and beyond his policies (which have been a disaster on almost every level), he comes across as one of the most personally unpleasant Presidents we've ever had (probably the only one who can dispute him that title is Sarko, but even he might have a bit more charm to his boorishness).

As for Mélenchon, he is indeed himself an arrogant asshole. But since you mentioned speeches in particular, I have to give the man credit: Mélenchon is a superb orator. As I said, I strongly dislike the guy but even I was getting emotional listening to him. Say what you want about the guy, he really has a way to sell what it means to be on the side of the downtrodden. Whoever picks up the standard of the French left after him better take a note from that, at least.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also, the gender gap if anything seems weaker than usual. Usually there's a pretty big divide between men voting more strongly for "extremes" (FN but also to some extent hard-left parties) and women being more friendly to establishment parties. You see a bit of that in this chart, but not nearly as much as I expected.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh no, please don't misunderstand. Macron is scum. I don't have much of anything positive to say about him, beyond the fact that at least he's not a Putin apologist. Personally, I don't see any sign that he's "genuinely concerned about people" - all I've seen from him is the contempt and arrogance of someone who grew up all his life thinking he was smarter than everyone else and was Destined for Greatness. Whenever he talks about the least fortunate, his instinct is always focused on the ways in which they're a drag on society, and that they're just too lazy to pull themselves together. You get the idea...

haha.  Indeed.  Thanks for the clarification.  As I said, I am not sure which candidate I'd vote for in this race, but I also have to admit to voting for Clinton in 1992 and again in 1996 so maybe I'm okay with the sort of person you describe. 

I knew I was wading in over my head mentioning Macron in a positive light.  We were in Guadeloupe a couple of years ago, just before the whole world closed down, and I was having a discussion with the guy in the condo below us who often stood out on the balcony smoking.  He was from Nantes and was asking me about where I learned French and that lead to me mentioning that I liked watching Macron's speeches.  Within a couple of minutes I regretted ever having said that.  He used much the same description you used.

Oh, well.  We moderate heroes gotta stick together, so I'm not going to dump on Macron.  Or Clinton. 

Given that only 6% of registered voters in Guadeloupe voted for Macron, I'd say you chose your spot poorly there, yeah.

I'd argue there isn't anything "moderate" about ruthlessly gutting social programs and slashing taxes on the rich, but I know our politics have gotten crazy enough that trying to make that point is probably a lost cause...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway, it looks that all the results are in except for the expat vote. So the final verdict of French residents is:

Macron 27,60%
Le Pen 23,41%
Mélenchon 21,95%
Zemmour 7,05%
Pécresse 4,79%
Jadot 4,58%
Lassalle 3,16%
Roussel 2,31%
Dupont-Aignan 2,07%
Hidalgo 1,74%
Poutou 0,77%
Arthaud 0,57%

Turnout 74,86% (Valid turnout 73,22%)

In the end, not quite as close as the final Ipsos projection (the gap between Le Pen and Mélenchon will be about 1.5 points rather than 0.8 points) but still largely on par. And still a stunning performance by Mélenchong, all considered. Macron is slightly above his final polling numbers, Le Pen pretty much on par. Zemmour is a little below and Pécresse just. Collapsed, and will almost certainly lose out on reimbursement of campaign expenditures.

In the end, the expat vote should bring Macron up a bit further, and Le Pen down quite a bit. Mélenchon will also go down but probably not as much as Le Pen. Zemmour should hopefully go down, although I'm honestly not sure - I could see a lot of expats who fit his loathsome profile. Pécresse should go up, but hopefully not enough to cross 5%. Jadot and Hidalgo might go up very slightly as well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd argue there isn't anything "moderate" about ruthlessly gutting social programs and slashing taxes on the rich, but I know our politics have gotten crazy enough that trying to make that point is probably a lost cause...

Ah, this is why I first came to Dave Leip's forum 18 years ago.  But it's probably also why I stopped visiting.  It can be a headache.

I suspect that we disagree on some level, but you make a good point.  I had similar arguments all through the 90s with my roommate in Boston regarding Clinton.  "What is 'moderate' about dragging the party rightward, and the 'welfare to work' program which is denying social benefits to children?"  I do appreciate the question. 

I think the idea is to try to come to a compromise that avoids class conflict.  The obvious drawback is that some unfortunate individuals do fall through the cracks and are deprived of the government aid that they need.  The solution to that problem is better screening.  I cannot adequately describe the specifics in France, but in the US the problem was abuse of the welfare system set up in the late 1960s in Johnson's Great Society.  It was a brilliant idea and phenomenally popular on the left and in the center.  But it became overly top-heavy, like Rome circa AD400.  It was a house of twigs just waiting for a strong wind to blow and knock it down.  Clinton wanted to prune it back in order to achieve a balanced budget. 

I have the impression that it was similar in France in 2017.  Macron advocated in favor of the free market and reducing the public-finances deficit at a time when the French deficit was near the allowed EU maximum.  But I also know that there are details (the El Khomri law, rebalancing of the trade deficit with Germany, fuel surcharges, etc.) with which I am not so intimately associated so I generally tend not to argue in favor of or against his legislative agenda. 

I do appreciate your unfiltered comments, though.  It motivates me to try to learn more about the specifics of his economic agenda.

I appreciate your thoughtful response as well. I fundamentally disagree with the idea that the scaling-back of the welfare state has been a way to avoid class conflict - I'd argue the exact opposite, in fact, that it has created a rift in Western societies that risks pulling them apart at the seams (and is the fundamental reason why candidates like Le Pen have a realistic chance to win). I'd be happy to elaborate on that more, but probably not at 4:30 in the morning, and probably not in this thread.

Anyway, glad to hear from you!

[Antonio the Sixth]

In the end, the expat vote should bring Macron up a bit further, and Le Pen down quite a bit. Mélenchon will also go down but probably not as much as Le Pen. Zemmour should hopefully go down, although I'm honestly not sure - I could see a lot of expats who fit his loathsome profile. Pécresse should go up, but hopefully not enough to cross 5%. Jadot and Hidalgo might go up very slightly as well.

Miami is perpetually disappointing, though only 10k voters.

Zemmour doing well in Tel Aviv. Probably his best result anywhere in the world.
https://twitter.com/julienbahloul/status/1513246914912919556

Absolutely disheartening. Apparently antisemitism is a-okay now as long as you Own Teh Moslems

[Antonio the Sixth]

Expat results:

Macron 45,09%
Mélenchon 21,92%
Zemmour 8,67%
Jadot 8,17%
Le Pen 5,29%
Pécresse 4,20%
Hidalgo 2,50%
Dupont-Aignan 1,42%
Lassalle 1,20%
Roussel 0,65%
Poutou 0,63%
Arthaud 0,26%

Turnout 35,12% (valid 34,75%)

As expected, Macron dominated and Le Pen bombed. As I very much did NOT expect, but perhaps I should have, Mélenchon did very well (basically on par with his France-wide results), and Zemmour did in fact overperform (thank you very much, Israel!). But perhaps most shocking of all, Pécresse did even worse among expats than among French residents. That's a shocking result when you consider that the expat vote was traditionally a stronghold of the traditional right (in 2017, Fillon came second at 26.3% there). I was actually worried the expat vote would bring her up to 5%, but it actually just dragged her down further. Hilarious.

Shame Jadot didn't come up ahead of Pécresse. He came amazingly close to her in the end, just 0.15 points.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm not sure if this is a serious question but central Paris is demographically not a great place for RN-style policies, just like the centres of most big cities. As above, those few on the right in such places are more likely to be of the Zemmour persuasion.

Saying that, her 5.54 there is slightly better than 2017, and would likely have been even higher without Zemmour being to her right.

I just don't really understand the difference between Zemmour and Le Penn in terms of policies and voters they attract, What is the main difference between their voters ?

Zemmour fundamentally appeals to voters who formed the core of the FN back in the 80s (and you could even go back all the way to Poujadism if you're so inclined). Basically small-business owner who are doing a decent living but hate having to pay taxes and hate immigrants, along with Pieds-noirs and people culturally affiliated with them, and a certain kind of hyper-reactionary high bourgeoisie. It is, in short, a deeply ideological far-right vote.

Le Pen's current voter base, by contrast, is much more #populist and concentrated in the lower-middle class and France's Average Jacques in mid-sized and small cities and exurbia. It's the quintessential vote of "peripheral France" which feels it's on the losing side of globalization.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm not sure if this is a serious question but central Paris is demographically not a great place for RN-style policies, just like the centres of most big cities. As above, those few on the right in such places are more likely to be of the Zemmour persuasion.

Saying that, her 5.54 there is slightly better than 2017, and would likely have been even higher without Zemmour being to her right.

I just don't really understand the difference between Zemmour and Le Penn in terms of policies and voters they attract, What is the main difference between their voters ?

Zemmour fundamentally appeals to voters who formed the core of the FN back in the 80s (and you could even go back all the way to Poujadism if you're so inclined). Basically small-business owner who are doing a decent living but hate having to pay taxes and hate immigrants, along with Pieds-noirs and people culturally affiliated with them, and a certain kind of hyper-reactionary high bourgeoisie. It is, in short, a deeply ideological far-right vote.

Le Pen's current voter base, by contrast, is much more #populist and concentrated in the lower-middle class and France's Average Jacques in mid-sized and small cities and exurbia. It's the quintessential vote of "peripheral France" which feels it's on the losing side of globalization.

Ok, so Zemmour is the more upper-crust kind of far-right while Le Penn is more a lower-middle down-trodden kind of far-right. How does this translate into policy differences? Is Zemmour's economic policy more focused on cutting taxes on the wealthy than Le Penn, are there any policy differecnes in terms of immigration or intergration of minorites ?

Zemmour is to her right on both economic issues and immigration/crime, yes. There is a lot of talk that his candidacy helped raise Le Pen's ceiling significantly, by making her seem tame and moderate on comparison. We'll see the extent to which that's true in two weeks, of course.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Expat results:

Macron 45,09%
Mélenchon 21,92%
Zemmour 8,67%
Jadot 8,17%
Le Pen 5,29%
Pécresse 4,20%
Hidalgo 2,50%
Dupont-Aignan 1,42%
Lassalle 1,20%
Roussel 0,65%
Poutou 0,63%
Arthaud 0,26%

Turnout 35,12% (valid 34,75%)

Is there a link for results by country?

They don't seem to be available on the official results page, sadly. I've seen some of them posted on Twitter, though (including the soul-crushingly depressing Israel ones posted earlier in this thread).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Zemmour is absolutely an antisemite, and clearly some people should revise their assumptions about many Israelis (or at least French Israelis, in this case) as well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

These "secret exit polls" are usually worthless and might actually be people just pulling numbers out of their ass. It's possible they get it right, of course, but if so it's probably just because they read the trend right.

Instead of speculating about fantasy numbers, here's a simple arithmetic mean of the final polls of all polling firms since Monday (counted Ipsos and Ipsos-Sopra-Steria separately, no idea if that makes sense but I guess it increases the sample size):

Macron 26.4%
Le Pen 23%
Mélenchon 17.1%
Zemmour 9.7%
Pécresse 7.9%
Jadot 4.8%
Roussel 2.6%
Lassalle 2.5%
Dupont-Aignan 2.2%
Hidalgo 2.1%
Poutou 1%
Arthaud 0.6%

These are the benchmarks I'll be having in mind when I look at the 20:00 results, although trends are also worth considering (+ for Le Pen and Mélenchon, - for Macron, Zemmour and Pécresse).

So, now that we have the final results (and muh Belgian "exit polls" got an egg on their face), we can finally compare these averages to the results.

Macron +1.4
Le Pen +0.2
Mélenchon +4.8
Zemmour -2.6
Pécresse -3.1
Jadot -0.1
Lassalle +0.6
Roussel  -0.4
Dupont-Aignan -0.2
Hidalgo -0.3
Poutou -0.2
Arthaud -0.1

Nothing we didn't already know, of course. Macron and Mélenchon overperformed, Pécresse and Zemmour underperformed, everyone else was basically where the polls expected. Another great night for French polling overall, even though no one will acknowledge it.

It is fascinating that most of Mélenchon's overperformance didn't actually come from other left-wing candidates (they collectively underperformed by just one point). Especially weird since the two candidates who underperformed most are the least likely to share any swing voters with Mélenchon, lol. So this does point to a slight sampling bias in the polling - probably underestimating turnout in the Paris region. Still, again, nothing worth fretting about.

And now, here are the 3 best pollsters of the 12 that released a poll in the final week, with their total deviation scores:
- Odoxa (5–6 Apr): 12.3
- Harris-Interactive (7–8 Apr): 12.4
(those are the only two that beat the polling average, which had a total deviation of 14 points)
- BVA (6–7 Apr): 14.7

And the worst 3:
- Kantar (4–5 Apr): 18.4
- YouGov (4–7 Apr): 17.4
- Cluster17 (6–8 Apr): 17.1

Unsurprisingly, two or those are among the "newcomers" with relatively less experience polling France. On the other hand, AtlasIntel actually did okay and was the 4th best pollster with a deviation of 14.8 points.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's... extremely premature, to say the least, but are there any super-early legislative polls? Really curious to see how LFI fares this time.

Probably not until after the runoff (and tbh even if there were, I wouldn't give them much credence).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Data on the election broken down to lower level communes, arrondissements, and constituencies (someone wanted this) is now accessible on the govt data portal.

Is there something that involves links, rather than downloadable files?

And also, I've taken a look at these Data.gouv results and OF COURSE they don't match the results from the Interior Ministry! The discrepancy is minor, like 500 votes or so, but it's enough to send my poor autistic brain into a meltdown.

Never change, France...

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/AntonJaegermm/status/1513809550943604741?s=20&t=pp1daymd...

I mean of course it's a good meme, but the real story here is how in a city as old  - and untouched by the wars - as Paris, the poor and rich neighborhoods remain the same even after many generations.

Yeah. This would be like looking at the 2020 election map in Alabama and making the classic, well-known connection with the types of soil where the plantation slave economy developed, and then acting like it says something about Joe Biden's personal appeal as opposed to patterns that have been around for centuries.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm not sure I would exaggerate the effect though - the 10th and 11th arrondissements these days are probably the two most visibly and intensely gentrified in the city - and are actually wealthier than Macron areas like the 14th and 15th.

Of course the word gentrification implies its own story about the history of these places and the social conflicts that this has caused and the who moved in and why - but those two places in particular are in a dynamic that is much more than just "urban poor = Mélenchon".

...the Quinzième is actually poorer than the inner rung of Northeast Paris? Huh, that is. Not the image I had of it at all. Wild development (and interesting that its politics seem to lag far behind that shift).