Biden infrastructure/tax increase megathread

[Antonio the Sixth]

We need more immigrants:

Skilled Workers Are Scarce, Posing a Challenge for Biden’s Infrastructure Plan
One estimate says the bill would add $1.4 trillion to the U.S. economy over eight years, but without enough workers, efforts to strengthen roads and public transit could be set back.

Mr. Biden has hailed the $1 trillion infrastructure bill as a way to create millions of jobs, but as the country faces a dire shortage of skilled workers, researchers and economists say companies may find it difficult to fill all of those positions.

The bill could generate new jobs in industries critical to keeping the nation’s public works systems running, such as construction, transportation and energy. S&P Global Ratings estimated that the bill would lift productivity and economic growth, adding $1.4 trillion to the U.S. economy over eight years. But if there is not enough labor to keep up with the demand, efforts to strengthen the nation’s highways, bridges and public transit could be set back.

“Do we have the work force ready right now to take care of this? Absolutely not,” said Beverly Scott, the vice chair of the President’s National Infrastructure Advisory Council.

A recent U.S. Chamber of Commerce survey found that 88 percent of commercial construction contractors reported moderate-to-high levels of difficulty finding skilled workers, and more than a third had to turn down work because of labor deficiencies. The industry could face a shortage of at least two million workers through 2025, according to an estimate from Construction Industry Resources, a data firm in Kentucky.

Is it a work ethic or population issue? I’m honestly asking a question.

Like any other "labor shortage", probably mostly a wage issue.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Corporate Dems will have to decide if they want their little bipartisan pet + a meaningful reconciliation bill, or if they want neither. Those are their only options, and they will have to live with their choice no matter what.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If they vote for the bipartisan bill, it's over. Nothing else will pass. The "agreed frameworks" and other bullsh*t are worthless.

Surely they can't actually be that dumb??

[Antonio the Sixth]

Like seriously. If Pelosi has agreed to this, it means she's just given up on the entire Biden agenda and thinks all that's left for this Congress to do is raise the debt ceiling, avoid the shutdown, and just wait for the inevitable GOP wave of 2022. It means the entire Biden presidency has basically been for naught.

Just pathetic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You know I'd love to be proven wrong, but smug dismissal and tautological invocations of Pelosi's supposed infallibility aren't exactly convincing counterarguments.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You know I'd love to be proven wrong, but smug dismissal and tautological invocations of Pelosi's supposed infallibility aren't exactly convincing counterarguments.

I am not pretending I know what will happen, and it’s hardly smug to say to stop making really outlandish claims.

There's nothing outlandish there. If the House votes tomorrow without a reconciliation deal, it's over. Plain as day.

I hope that's not the case, maybe the negotiations on reconciliation are further along and something will come up today to clear everything up. But it's getting harder and harder to believe.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You know I'd love to be proven wrong, but smug dismissal and tautological invocations of Pelosi's supposed infallibility aren't exactly convincing counterarguments.

I am not pretending I know what will happen, and it’s hardly smug to say to stop making really outlandish claims.

There's nothing outlandish there. If the House votes tomorrow without a reconciliation deal, it's over. Plain as day.

I hope that's not the case, maybe the negotiations on reconciliation are further along and something will come up today to clear everything up. But it's getting harder and harder to believe.

Yeah that's outlandish.  It's not "over."

You think the centrist Dems will agree to anything after they get the only thing they ever cared about? Now that's outlandish.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You know I'd love to be proven wrong, but smug dismissal and tautological invocations of Pelosi's supposed infallibility aren't exactly convincing counterarguments.

I am not pretending I know what will happen, and it’s hardly smug to say to stop making really outlandish claims.

There's nothing outlandish there. If the House votes tomorrow without a reconciliation deal, it's over. Plain as day.

I hope that's not the case, maybe the negotiations on reconciliation are further along and something will come up today to clear everything up. But it's getting harder and harder to believe.

Yeah that's outlandish.  It's not "over."

You think the centrist Dems will agree to anything after they get the only thing they ever cared about? Now that's outlandish.

I'm don't claim to know what is going on behind the scenes, and I will draw my conclusions once events out of my control have transpired.

So you've got absolutely nothing, except insisting we shouldn't draw the obvious conclusions based on the players' incentives as they have been plainly laid out for all to see since like May. Gotcha.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bernie Sanders just tweeted that he is urging dems to vote no on thurs

Total nonsense, he tweeted that no BIF should be passed without reconciliation. He didn't urge a no vote. He didn't even use the word vote.

Yes he did:

https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/1442929430117044224

I stand corrected I was looking at his campaign account

I mean he’s right so I’m not complaining

Yeah, this is exactly what progressives should be doing. Seems like they agree with my earlier assessment that passing the bipartisan bill would doom the reconciliation bill, and are working to make sure that doesn't happen. That's a relief.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Progressives are doing the right thing. If we let this bill pass without reconciliation, there will be no reconciliation bill. We can't let right-wing DINOs destroy the President's agenda.

Both sides seem intent on destroying the agenda at this point.

No. Progressives want Bipartisan + Reconciliation, which is the whole agenda. Corporate Dems want to tank Reconciliation, which represents like 80% of the agenda.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm sick of this sh*t.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We live to fight another day. Hopefully Pelosi has learned her lesson and she'll stand firmly with the CPC from now on. They were the only ones brave enough to go to bat for Biden's agenda when even the leadership was ready to throw it under the bus.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm on team "the full faith and credit clause renders the debt ceiling unconstitutional", but I wouldn't want to trust this SCOTUS about it...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why the f**k are we using this thread for debt ceiling negotiations? I know this is all happening together but this is about the reconciliation bill which is a separate issue. It's incredibly annoying to wake up and see a bunch of new pages added to the thread and not know if this is about the debt ceiling stuff or the reconciliation package.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This stupid idea of never passing the BIF makes no sense. The BIF is better for America than the status quo, so worst-case Democrats should make sure to pass it in this Congress even if the reconciliation fails. Of course tactically though, they should hold it hostage to make it more likely that Manchin and Sinema vote for reconciliation, but basically the threat should be a bluff. The ultimate question is the degree of progress made, anything is better than nothing.

I say we pass it in the lame-duck session, after moderates have to go back to their districts and explain to their constituents why they got nothing done.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why are Biden and the progressives negotiating with themselves when we still don't have Manchin and Sinema even agreeing to a topline?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why are Biden and the progressives negotiating with themselves when we still don't have Manchin and Sinema even agreeing to a topline?

Because Biden is probably seeing what the Progressives will agree to cutting and then present it to Manchin/Sinema. I.e., they've done this rework that brings it down to $1.9-2.2, and now they just need to see if M/S will agree to it or not. Which at this point, given how much has been cut, I don't see why/how they couldn't.

I can see why they couldn't, because they're f**king Manchin and Sinema and they have no loyalty or shame.

I really hope you're right, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

lmao, I would NOT count of the GOP to be bound to any sense of political caution not to slash social programs next time they have the trifecta. The only reason they didn't slash Obamacare was because of two "moderates" and one quixotic weirdo who had a grudge with the president. The quixotic weirdo is dead and the "moderates" are on their way out, and besides Republicans have a much easier path to winning 52+ Senate seats than Democrats. We've been saved from true conservative rule for the past 20 years or so by the fact that Democrats have consistently punched above their weight in Senate races, but eventually we're going to run out of luck, and when we do, we're in for a rude awakening. Republicans don't care that their socioeconomic agenda is unpopular, because their strategy is all about diverting attention away from socioeconomic grievances with culture war bullsh*t, and this strategy has almost always worked for them. The fact that they're seen as the "party of the working class" after 4 years of further oligarchic entrenchment says everything you need to know.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/578319-manchin-shutting-down-sanders-on-medicare-expansion

Manchin still not sold on Medicare expansion.

If Sanders can actually convince Manchin to get Medicare expansion into this bill, I will give him credit, it will easily be his biggest positive accomplishment across his entire career.

However, knowing Sanders, I would expect the odds of that to be vanishingly low.

Yes, clearly it's Bernie's fault that Manchin doesn't like popular social programs. Stellar political analysis from GMA yet again.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/578319-manchin-shutting-down-sanders-on-medicare-expansion

Manchin still not sold on Medicare expansion.

If Sanders can actually convince Manchin to get Medicare expansion into this bill, I will give him credit, it will easily be his biggest positive accomplishment across his entire career.

However, knowing Sanders, I would expect the odds of that to be vanishingly low.

Yes, clearly it's Bernie's fault that Manchin doesn't like popular social programs. Stellar political analysis from GMA yet again.

You couldn't even be bothered to read a one-sentence post, instead you just decided to completely invent something I didn't say so you could dunk on it.  That's pathetic.  Thanks for taking me off ignore just for this purpose though.

How else is one supposed to read "However, knowing Sanders", exactly? Clearly if this was a fair assessment of the situation, you would have said "However, knowing Manchin" since it's clearly Manchin who's being unreasonable here. But you just couldn't resist that little dig, could you?

[Antonio the Sixth]

No vote on the BIF until reconciliation passes. Period. End of story.

[Antonio the Sixth]

No vote on the BIF until reconciliation passes. Period. End of story.

Which is ridiculous. We have the framework. If Manchin and Sinema say they're good with this and will vote, we have 50, we will vote on that next week (or this weekend?) but BIF is ready, so get it done now.

If you've made it through the past 9 months and you still trust Manchin and Sinema's word, I have a bridge to Pluto to sell you.

There is no deal until the reconciliation bill is on Biden's desk. Everything else is just air.

[Antonio the Sixth]

No reconciliation, no BIF. CPC better hold the line.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Only 9? Not good

I'd have to hope those numbers will grow once it becomes clear than Manchin and Sinema are trying to swindle us again.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How long until the reconciliation bill gets a Senate vote?

Never, if Pelosi gets her way and the BIF passes first.