Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any idea when we might get more vote drops to wrap this thing up for Ossoff?

Gabriel Sterling (a top official from the Georgia secretary of state’s office) says he anticipates that all but a few votes will be counted by 1 p.m. today and that Jon Ossoff will very likely defeat David Perdue.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/06/us/georgia-election-results?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive&region=ReporterUpdates#gabriel-sterling-georgia

It's past 1pm PST and still nothing...

[Antonio the Sixth]

What the f**k is DeKalb waiting for

[Antonio the Sixth]

What the f**k is DeKalb waiting for

or Chatham, or Henry, or Fulton, or Gwinnett, they all have like 3-7K ballots left. DK what they're doing

For absentees that arrived yesterday, they all must be processed which may require review by voter review panels.  It's not a fast process.

Ughhhhhhhhhh

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thank you Kelly for conceding and not acting like some baseless voter fraud exist.  I have no time for sore losers anymore. 

Yup. Now what about Perdue? Has he said anything?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm really disappointed that the fact that we flipped the Senate was reduced to a foonote because of the domestic terrorist attack.

Fascists get one day. We get two years.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ossoff margin at +1.01 right now. There could be no recount even if Raffensperger wanted to.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Hispanic vote swing big for democrats after the party took their vote seriously this time gives me hope in the future. Maybe Zapata et al was just a fluke and all we need is a bit more campaigning en español.

Yeah, this is arguably the most important takeaway from this election. Here's hoping Democrats take it to heart.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jon Ossoff 2,260,424 (50.55%)
David Perdue 2,210,914 (49.45%)
= Ossoff +49,510 (1.10%)

Raphael Warnock 2,279,559 (50.98%)
Kelly Loeffler 2,191,836 (49.02%)
= Warnock +87,723 (1.96%)

Where are you getting these numbers from?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jon Ossoff 2,260,424 (50.55%)
David Perdue 2,210,914 (49.45%)
= Ossoff +49,510 (1.10%)

Raphael Warnock 2,279,559 (50.98%)
Kelly Loeffler 2,191,836 (49.02%)
= Warnock +87,723 (1.96%)

Where are you getting these numbers from?

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/107556/web.264614/#/summary

Ah, thanks! Looks like they're ahead of both NYT and DDHQ now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ossoff has hit his MUH NEEDLE estimate (+1.11 right now). Warnock is at +1.96, which also rounds to his +2 estimate, but I'd like to see him actually get up there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Excellent map, thank you!

Would you like to do one comparing Warnock's margins to Biden's in November? I feel like it's a more meaningful comparison than using the jungle primary, and it should highlight some salient patterns.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Would you like to do one comparing Warnock's margins to Biden's in November? I feel like it's a more meaningful comparison than using the jungle primary, and it should highlight some salient patterns.

Relatively little movement: 112 of 159 counties swung less than 2 points one way or another.

There are some striking patterns, though (including obvious racial turnout differentials and the effect of media markets on the northern and southern ends of the state; Warnock had similar issues during the primary).

Thanks! Yeah, I wasn't expecting big swings obviously, but where these swings happened is certainly instructive.

I kinda wish you'd used 2-point increments rather than 3-point ones though. That would have made it easy to visualize a "trend" map, since the swing was about 2 points. I know it's my fault for not asking.

[Antonio the Sixth]

1/3rd of GA counties have official results now and Löffler dropped below 49%.

Where do you see that? The SoS website has her at 49.00%.

49.001% to be precise. C'mon, almost there....

[Antonio the Sixth]

Both Warnock and Ossoff officially beat their Needle estimates! NICE

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1349052886270029825

What's he doing on the Capitol anyway? He hasn't been a Senator since Jan 3.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1349820717148286978

If the results are certified on Tuesday, do Warnock and Ossoff get sworn in the same day, or is there additional delay from there?

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1349820717148286978

If the results are certified on Tuesday, do Warnock and Ossoff get sworn in the same day, or is there additional delay from there?

The Georgia Secretary of State must send an election certificate to the Senate.  As soon as this is received by the secretary of the Senate, they can be sworn in.

Is it likely to arrive within the day, or at least overnight?

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1349820717148286978

If the results are certified on Tuesday, do Warnock and Ossoff get sworn in the same day, or is there additional delay from there?

The Georgia Secretary of State must send an election certificate to the Senate.  As soon as this is received by the secretary of the Senate, they can be sworn in.

Is it likely to arrive within the day, or at least overnight?

Likely overnight, the AJC wrote today that they'll likely be sworn-in when the Senate reconvenes on Wednesday (so, just after the inauguration & immediately prior to the beginning of the trial).

Ah, I see. Can there be a vote on the very same day to replace McConnell with Schumer, or will that have to wait too?

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1349820717148286978

If the results are certified on Tuesday, do Warnock and Ossoff get sworn in the same day, or is there additional delay from there?

The Georgia Secretary of State must send an election certificate to the Senate.  As soon as this is received by the secretary of the Senate, they can be sworn in.

Is it likely to arrive within the day, or at least overnight?

Likely overnight, the AJC wrote today that they'll likely be sworn-in when the Senate reconvenes on Wednesday (so, just after the inauguration & immediately prior to the beginning of the trial).

Ah, I see. Can there be a vote on the very same day to replace McConnell with Schumer, or will that have to wait too?

That will happen as soon as Ossoff and Warnock are sworn in and Harris is Vice President. I do think, however, that there will need to be some sort of vote to make Pat Leahy the President Pro Tempore. Does anyone know what the process is for that? I always watch the House on the opening day of Congress and have never bothered to watch the Senate on that day.

Wait, so does Schumer becoming majority leader happen automatically without the need of a vote or any kind of formal process? Just as long as it's ascertained that there are 50+1 Democrats in the Senate? Great news if so.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I see. Well, that's a start. Hopefully the other procedural stuff can be dealt with in the following days.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's done!!!

Final margins: Warnock+2.09, Ossoff+1.23. Blackman sadly fell short by just 0.75.

For Senate though, what a victory! Here's to many more like these, starting in 2022.

Also, the Needle turned out to underestimate both Democrats by about 0.1. Chances are if they kept it running just a bit longer on Wednesday, it would have gotten right on the money, though. The trend has been upward all night.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also interesting to note that the 538 polling averages were right on the money in estimating Warnock's margin, but slightly overestimated Ossoff (they put him at +1.8). Probably too small to warrant serious analysis, but I do half-wonder what made the dropoff between the two candidates wider than expected. Shy Enlightened Suburban Ticket-Splitter Effect?