2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Antonio the Sixth]

Democratic seat gains in the House & State legislature during the 2000s under the party-drawn maps:  5 (2 Congressional, 4 State Assembly, 1 State Senate loss)

Democratic seat gains in the House & State legislature during the 2010s under the independent commission-drawn maps:  22 (8 Congressional, 8 State Assembly, 6 State Senate)

This is in jest, isn't it?

California underwent a metamorphosis in the 2000s, from +12 Gore to +24 Obama. The CA state assembly was even GOP until 1996, when since 2018 both chambers are 75+% Dem.
This rapid polarisation explains the seat flips much better than an advantageous independent commission.

There's a reason why most of the gains happened in 2012, the year right after redistricting. It's not that the independent commission was particularly Dem-friendly, it's just that the previous map was an "incumbent protection" gerrymander that the absolute cretins who ran the CA legislature at the time had agreed to, and in a state that's trending Dem, incumbent protection is effectively a Republican gerrymander.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Frustrated this map still hasn't been added to 538's redistricting tracker.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this map looks godawful. I have no idea what the commission is doing this time around, when they did a pretty good job in 2011.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this map looks godawful. I have no idea what the commission is doing this time around, when they did a pretty good job in 2011.

They are all visualizations, unless you are referring to the collective sum of the visualizations. None is final, and some are better than others in my opinion.


Also, I seem to recall from reading through the old thread that one of the 2010 visualizations divided up the OC Hispanic cities just like this one, of course back then though the chatter was how dividing such groups benefited the GOP. Said visualization didn't last long.

Yeah, I know it's just a proposal, but it's a terrible proposal and should be called out as such. I know some of the earlier maps were better, so I hope they stick with those.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Christy Smith lost the current CA-25 by a razor-thin margin. She should be able to win a CA-25 nested within LA County with relative ease. (provided she is main Dem candidate)

She would be an atrocious candidate. You don't make fun of a person's military service.

Quaye Quartey is a veteran, looks like a solid candidate. Dara Stransky also looks solid. Literally anyone besides Smith can pick up this seat.

Yeah, Smith has had two chances and she blew both. I don't see why she deserves a third.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The commission seems weirdly hellbent on making Steele's district more Democratic and Porter's more Republican. I guess I have to credit them for not giving a sh*t about incumbent protection, like partisan mapmakers always do even when both sides come together. I do have to wonder if there's a reason for it, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

2. the commission explicitly has to conform to municipality lines, which also look terrible

Was that the case in 2010 too? Because the current districts are fairly compact.

[Antonio the Sixth]

They're really trying to screw over Katie Porter huh?

[Antonio the Sixth]

They're really trying to screw over Katie Porter huh?

No Porter is in 47 double bunked with Steel. Biden +11

Ah. So that leaves that R-leaning NE OC district as an open seat?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Commission map has gone into effect.