Will the Senate be called on Election Night?

[Respect and Compassion]

Florida will definitely be called for Rubio at 8:00PM Eastern. Technically one could call it for him before that, but calls aren't made until the entire state closes so we'd have to wait until the panhandle closes.

North Carolina will be called for Budd at some point before 10:00PM. It will be a high single digit, perhaps even a double digit win.

Ohio will be called for Vance at some point before 10:00PM. Trump took the lead from Biden in Ohio at around 9:50PM, I expect Vance to overperform by enough to have it called relatively early.

Wisconsin will be called for Ron Johnson at some point before midnight, I expect a win by at least 4 points.

I expect the Republican candidate to win New Hampshire by between 1% and 3%. I suspect the various towns will demonstrate decently large Republican swings from the 2020 Presidential result but perhaps News outlets will wait a while, perhaps past midnight.

Arizona could be called for Masters before midnight eastern. I suspect that he'll overperform the early vote drop compared to Trump by enough that when the early results come in, one can prognosticate that he will win by at least 4 or more.

When Arizona gets called for Masters (let's say around 11:30PM eastern), that would mean that Democrats would have to flip Pennsylvania to balance it out. However, I expect results nationwide imply enough of a Republican overperformance to the polls that it's likely that Nevada is expected to go for Laxalt at some point after midnight. The early Nevada results may show a slight lead for Catherine Cortez-Masto, but in the context of Red Wave results elsewhere in the nation I'd expect Nevada to be called for Laxalt soon after the early results come in.

Even if Oz wins Pennsylvania by high single digits it could be that news outlets will want to be careful calling it, so it may take over a day

Ergo, even without Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, I expect Nevada to be called by "election night" before 3:00AM eastern / 12:00AM west coast. That would lead to the Senate being called for the Republicans.

Could it be called sometime earlier? Well that depends on whether news outlets are confident enough to project based on early results and exit poll data. Arizona, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire could be called before midnight eastern based on early results if the exit polls are favorable enough for the Republicans.