2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[tagimaucia]

Yeah, I'd bet a lot that there will be a 2008 level 18-29-yo share of the electorate this year, if not even higher.  Due to pure negative partisanship/hatred of Trump (def not enthusiasm about Biden!)

[tagimaucia]

Arizona is the low-key most important state IMO.  Biden definitely looks strong there, but still too early to come out with any definitive statements.  I would give him probably a 75% chance of taking it.  It also looks like it might turn red on PredictIt here soon, so if you want to make some money, hammer it as soon as it does.

Are the people on PredictIt crazy lol

Yes lol.

[tagimaucia]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320357683040571392

[tagimaucia]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320357683040571392

[tagimaucia]

Here’s some interesting Texas charts

DISCLAIMER: I am not posting these claiming they prove anything in particular about the eventual election outcome!

https://twitter.com/jipkin/status/1320861948507021318

[tagimaucia]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1321219558674436098?s=20

Some of these absentee file joins in different states that Nate is doing should be enough to show people how useless the TargetSmart data is.

[tagimaucia]

Here's some ACTUAL numbers for Georgia that aren't TargetSmart bulls--t:

Total vote:  2.975M

White:  56.9% (60% in 2016)
Black:  28.3% (30% in 2016)
Hispanic:  2.3%
Asian:  2.4%
Unknown:  10%

Women:  55.4% (55%)
Men:  43% (45%)
Unknown:  1.5%

18-29:  11.4% (18%)
30-39:  11.7% (18%)
40-49:  15.0% (21%)
50-64:  30.2% (27%)
65+:  30.3% (16%)

2016 non-voters:  26.3%
2018 non-voters:  22.6%

Are the numbers in parentheses from exit polls?  Because if you're comparing actual voter file data to exit polls, I'm pretty sure that is an extreme apples-to-oranges comparison...

[tagimaucia]

I'm noticing a correlation lately between the Georgia early vote numbers, the Biden campaigns late push into Georgia, the Georgia polls showing slight movement to Biden & MillenialModerates Georgia-related rantings and increasingly-reaching claims.


Probably nothing though

Georgia is fools gold tbh, Biden should focus on more winnable swing states like IA imo imo

Iowa is reachable IMO.

Georgia is a joke - Biden has a minuscule chance there, Osoff has almost no chance and Warnock forget it

Where do your ideas about Georgia come from?  Just total nonsense. If Biden wins Georgia, will you at least post a mea culpa on the board?