The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

Missouri, PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MO_0309424.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Basically the Republicans nominate Mike Huckabee or risk losing  Missouri, which they dare not do.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   79
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   79
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 98
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

Basically the Republicans nominate Mike Huckabee or risk losing  Missouri, which they dare not do.

What a strange way of interpreting this poll. I like the optimism though!

So far I see the GOP nominee for President losing like John McCain if the candidate is Huckabee or perhaps Romney. Palin? Landslide loss. She loses Arizona, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Tennessee -- states that weren't close in 2008. Oh, yes, Georgia and Missouri, which were close.

The states shaded in green in the bottom map are those in which someone loses to President Obama. It is possible for him to win some states if his approval rating in that state is 42% -- if the GOP nominates the 'wrong' candidate'.  In every state in which the President has an approval rating of at least 46% he wins against everyone.

In Missouri, Romney and Obama are in a virtual tie and Gingrich and Obama tie. Huckabee would win decisively. 

Who runs matters greatly.

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_ME_0311.pdf

Maine is nearly homogeneous in its voting between its two districts, much unlike Nebraska.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 98
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_US_0317513.pdf


No slam dunk for President Obama, but every imaginable GOP challenger is behind by at least 6&, which is wider than the President's narrow victory in Ohio in 2008. Significantly (if a different poll), Senator Sherrod Brown isn't in peril of having his Senate seat flipped.   It's not likely that Ohio is more D than the US at large.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 98
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

Montana, Mason-Dixon, but only an Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor poll:

Those polled were asked to rate the job performance of top Montana politicians and President Barack Obama in one of four categories: "excellent," "pretty good," "only fair" or "poor." The "excellent" and "pretty good" scores generally are combined to provide a positive job performance rating.

Montanans gave President Barack Obama a 40 percent job approval rating.

He fared considerably better with women than men in positive job performance scores. Women gave him 48 percent to men's 31 percent. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats gave the president a positive job performance score, while only 4 percent of Republicans did, while 38 percent of independents did.

The poll was done for the Gazette State Bureau by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., from March 14-16. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_c37baa50-c4b2-555a-96ed-b7851b5d80ac.html

That probably means Obama has a 45% approval rating in Montana, because a lot of "fair"-people tend to "approve" ...

I show a  "scale of 1 to 5" poll for Georgia, but with an "S". I treated the "3"s as undecided.

EGFP and  and approval polls are apples to oranges.

PPP will soon be showing polls for Michigan and North Carolina. 31 electoral votes. We are likely to see more polls on Montana, including Presidential matchups.   

[pbrower2a]

Portent on Michigan in the Presidential approval: the Governor is in the doghouse.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MI_0322925.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Michigan may simply be ungovernable. The GOP got its chance, and in Michigan it got to play its hand and played the wrong hand. Maybe Rick Snyder isn't as blatant as Scott, Walker, Kasich, and LePage. 

[pbrower2a]

Connecticut (even if it is Daily Kos and the union SEIU, it is by PPP).  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Whoops! I can't use it even if it seems reasonable because it has the sponsorship of a union known to be strongly Democratic. Furthermore, Swing State Project seems to be very much a Democratic group in view of its very loaded rhetoric.

[pbrower2a]

Two in the "I am not surprised" category, except that someone actually polled DC:

YESS ! Finally we got a DC poll ( I think this is the first DC poll ever):

District of Columbia/Clarus Poll:

88% Approve

The Clarus Poll was conducted March 21-22, 2011 with a sample of 500 registered voters. Margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent. Interviews were conducted by live telephone interviewing specialists. Clarus conducted this survey for its own use. No client, candidate, or political committee sponsored or paid for this survey.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/clarus-poll-of-dc-voters-mayor-gray-posts-negative-job-rating-118481494.html

Field, CA, 54-37

I don't have to assume anything about DC anymore.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, 90% blue

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 98
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

pbrower, you need to change your map for DC.

DC is still blue on it, it needs to be dark green.

It may be hard to tell that shade of green from midnight blue on the approval map, but I made the change. I also 'assimilated' DC into the national pattern as 'just another' three electoral votes that the President would get with 10% or more. Extreme deep red just doesn't show in a box.

[pbrower2a]

NC, PPP. 48-46.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. An asterisk applies to a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee 15
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

Obama at 39%

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/NewsRoom/HarrisPolls/tabid/447/ctl/ReadCustom%20Default/mid/1508/ArticleId/725/Default.aspx

Interactive polls are worthless because they are easily manipulated.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan, PPP:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The President is not wildly popular in Michigan, but he would beat every imaginable GOP nominee.

Governor Scott Walker, of either neighboring or across-the-lake Wisconsin depending on what peninsula in Michigan one is in, has been very visible to Michigan media, and he would lose Michigan badly if he were to be the GOP nominee for President.  Interesting inclusion here and very telling. He would be no asset as a VP nominee.

Even with a 47-45 split between approval and disapproval, President Obama would defeat any imaginable GOP nominee for President decisively in Michigan. 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. An asterisk applies to a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee 15
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

PPP/DailyKos:

45% Approve
48% Disapprove

Public Policy Polling, 1002 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, Mar 25, 2011 - Mar 27, 2011

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/3/25

So much for pro-Obama bias by PPP!

[pbrower2a]

NC (Civitas):

47% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Perdue-Obama-Job-Approval-March-11-PR-CTs.pdf

Note for Pbrower:

Please do not change the map, the PPP North Carolina poll is the newer one.

I will change the map, but not for North Carolina. Mississippi checks in:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Mississippi politics are really tribal, and a rigid application of the model might be deceptive. President Obama projects to lose to every imaginable GOP nominee -- even Sarah Palin. Note well that he likely loses by single digits in Mississippi to anyone but Mike Huckabee, and Mike Huckabee probably wins by about as much as John McCain did in 2008 because Huckabee is a good fit, at least culturally, for Mississippi.

 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 36
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. An asterisk applies to a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee 15
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

I was going to put this in my previous post, but the Forum software rejected it for excessive verbiage.

The last Democratic Presidential nominee to win Mississippi was Jimmy Carter (1976 -- ancient history as contemporary politics go), who then had a "good ol' boy" persona that President Obama could never affect effectively even if he were white.   

The only ways in which President Obama can win Mississippi involve Sarah Palin as nominee with her making absurd statements on military affairs or foreign policy when such are going well for President Obama but seem to depend upon the re-election of President Obama (white Southerners are the only large group of white people who have a disproportionate  membership in the Armed Forces) or that white Mississippians are able to abandon their tribalistic voting within the next two years. The first would depend upon some contingencies, and the second looks highly unlikely.

....

Favorite Son Haley Barbour would defeat President Obama decisively -- probably by a margin in the high single digits -- in Mississippi. But a 54-46 split of a home state (which is about what a 51-41 split suggests) is very poor for a Favorite Son who has a favorable image in his own state. The Favorite Son advantage is typically worth about 10%, and even a conservative estimate of the effect of the Favorite Son effect and that Mississippi is itself about R+10 suggests that Barbour would lose about 57-43 nationwide. Such would be enough to ensure that President Obama not only wins everything that he won in 2008, but also that he would also flip Missouri, Montana, Georgia, Arizona, South Carolina, and both Dakotas and be on the brink of winning Texas, Kentucky, and Tennessee.  John Thune does better in South Dakota, and my analysis of the 57-something split against President Obama in South Dakota by him suggests that Thune would do badly nationwide.

As a second-tier candidate, Haley Barbour might be as relevant for discussion as a VP nominee. As I see it, the only reason for any nominee to select him for VP will be that he is to play a role similar to that of Dick Cheney as Vice-President (whether one likes that or not), because (1) he's not going to be any political asset outside the South, and (2) if solidifying the vote in the Deep South seems necessary in 2012, then the 2012 Presidential election is a lost cause for the Republicans anyway.

[pbrower2a]

His approval has dropped like a rock in a bathtub the last few days. Not just Rasmussen either. Has to be from his Libya address.

After Dubya, any form of war looks unspeakably horrible to many American liberals.

If this war (let's not kid ourselves that it is anything else) is over quickly and decisively with a good result limited to an erratic dictator either in flight, in custody, or in a casket, then this is more like Grenada than Iraq.

So far I give 100% of the fault for the civil war in Libya to Muammar Qaddafi.

[pbrower2a]

A state not polled since June of last year finally checks in!

(cue drum roll)

Hawaii (PPP):

64% Approve
29% Disapprove

Public Policy Polling, 898 Registered Voters, MoE 3.3%, Mar 24, 2011 - Mar 27, 2011

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2011/3/24/HI/30/eQhgB

It's Hawaii.

(Cue anticlimactic moans).

Not so anticlimactic:

And Florida checks in with 48-47.

That makes it "all green" in the Obama states for the first time in a long period ...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FL_03311023.pdf

Except for Indiana, and only due to our ignorance for a lack of polls. It would almost certainly be on the margin, like Arizona and Missouri. Robot polls aren't allowed in Indiana, so that state will be a blank for a while.
 
The Presidential election of 2012 now projects to look much like that of 2008 if nothing changes over slightly more than 19 months.

PPP polls Georgia and New Hampshire this week.   

 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 36
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. An asterisk applies to a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee 15
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

Florida - Viewpoint Florida (R):

43% Approve
54% Disapprove

Democrats approve 65-30, Republicans 22-78 and Independents 51-49.

The sample is 45% GOP, 40% DEM, 15% IND.

http://viewpointflorida.org/index.php/site/article/majority_of_florida_voters_disapprove_of_obama_but_support_libyan_inte/

Bad sample.

It seems like SurveyUSA dropped their monthly approval rating polls for selected states once and for all.

Hmm. They posted them tonight ...

California: 48-46

Kansas: 35-62

Oregon: 44-53

Washington: 48-49

Do these fellows ever choose different states? Or get different results?

Nothing useful here, so no new maps.

PPP will soon have Georgia and New Hampshire, states likely on the fringes of contest in 2012.

[pbrower2a]

Esthetic change. Rather than using an asterisk for a tie for one candidate against President Obama in the case in which only one potential GOP candidate can tie President Obama in 2012. I am going to use a tan shade for such a situation. Watch North Carolina. See the asterisk disappear.

The purpose is to show the possibility of a tie in a state with a small or compact state. Such states are generally not likely to need such treatment.

 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 36
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. An asterisk applies to a A tan color will be used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 15
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

I love reading this thread after long periods of time and how different the Rasmussen numbers are every few days. If the numbers are to be believed from Rasmussen voters have gone from disliking to liking to disliking to liking Obama like a rollercoaster in the last two and ahalf weeks, basically.

It could be over events over which the President has little control -- like revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, and now Libya.

I figure that if there were weekly approval ratings of President Harry Truman, they would likely have had a close correspondence to the latitude of the front line in Korea.
 

[pbrower2a]

Georgia, a state in reach of President Obama. Such would be a disaster for the GOP because the GOP absolutely needs this state which was about R+7 in 2008. Huckabee and Romney would both barely win it.  I might have expected Huckabee to win it more decisively because the demographics of Georgia are fairly close to those of Arkansas. It is possible to lose with 50% approval in a state if the opponent is a better match for the state or district, but the majority of such cases are anomalies.  

I still think that President Obama is the wrong Democrat for Georgia as a cultural mismatch, but even without an Obama win of the state, the Democrats might pick up a House seat or two there.

Gingrich seems to be fading quickly, and he would lose his own state. This is worse for him than it was in the last PPP poll. Huckabee and Romney are holding their own, so I figure that it is not so much President Obama who is gaining in Georgia (he is, but not that fast) as it is Gingrich self-destructing.  

President Obama isn't doing particularly well in New Hampshire (46-46  tie in approval and disapproval); he would barely defeat Romney, if within the usual margin of error, but win decisively against everyone else.  But to have a chance to win New Hampshire, the Republicans have to concede North Carolina, which would be a horrible trade.  

 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 116
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 20
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 15
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

New Jersey (FDU)

47% Approve
42% Disapprove

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 711 registered voters statewide was conducted by telephone using both landlines and cell phones from March 29 through April 4, 2011, and has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2011/prez1104/

Huge number of undecided (13%).

Florida (Quinnipiac University)

44% Approve
52% Disapprove

From March 29 - April 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,499 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1584

Virginia (Roanoke College)

33.6% Approve
56.7% Disapprove

Interviewing for The Roanoke College Poll was conducted by The Institute for Opinion and Policy Research at Roanoke College in Salem, Va. between March 17 and March 30, 2011. The sample consisted of 437 residents of Virginia. The sample of phone numbers was prepared by Survey Sampling Inc. of Fairfield, Conn. and was created so that all residential telephone numbers, including unlisted numbers, had a known chance of inclusion.

Questions answered by the entire sample of 437 likely voters are subject to a sampling error of plus or minus approximately 4.7 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples like the one used here, the results obtained should be no more than 4.7 percentage points above or below the figure that would be obtained by interviewing all registered voters who have a telephone. Where the results of subgroups are reported, the sampling error is higher.

http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Events/Campus_News/RC_Poll_Spring_2011.htm

Update:

Washington Post Polling Director Jon Cohen warns to be cautious of this poll. "Results were adjusted only for gender, and the resulting sample is not representative of Virginia's racial composition, its age structure or regional population densities. Each of these factors is related to partisan preferences."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/04/07/allen_opens_early_lead_over_kaine.html

I accept the one for Florida, but not for Virginia. There's no excuse for a poll that fails to fit the ethnic reality of a state in which ethnicity shapes voting practices.

 An edge of "Generic Republican" over President Obama means nothing now and will mean nothing in 2012, when "Generic Republican" will be in hibernation. No specific matchups are shown in Quinnipiac, so I will have to leave a blank  for those.  The President probably wins any likely matchup with any specific nominee, and Governor Rick Scott will be a detriment to any GOP nominee for President.
 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 126
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 101
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 70
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 20
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 29
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 15
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 89
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

Obama's below 20% Strong Approval today in Ras for the first time.  It makes sense i guess (I can't see agreeing to ~40 Billion in Spending cuts being popular with Liberals)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The Republican majority in the House is in a position to play rough -- and has every incentive to do so. It has taken the gamble that it can convince people of its  wisdom between now and November 2012 that America suddenly underwent a cultural change late in 2010 that will last indefinitely and one that can be legislated into permanence.

I continue to predict that President Obama will do much as Truman did in 1948 -- run against Congressional Republicans.

[pbrower2a]

The Mason-Dixon poll concurs with the Quinnipiac poll. The average changes nothing.  

The Siena poll is favorable. unfavorable, and thus not usable.

[pbrower2a]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/04/obama-in-dicey-shape-in-pennsylvania.html

President Obama has gone into the hole in Pennsylvania (42-52), which may reflect the poor nationwide polls by Rasmussen and declines in statewide polls in Florida from earlier ones. He would lose the state to Romney within the margin of error and barely beat Huckabee. To be sure, the voting sample is similar to that of 2010...

 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 96
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 15
Obama wins against all but  Romney 20
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54