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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1031480 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #7575 on: March 23, 2011, 04:58:43 pm »
« edited: March 24, 2011, 09:00:35 pm by pbrower2a »

NC, PPP. 48-46.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. An asterisk applies to a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee 15
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

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Ben Romney
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« Reply #7576 on: March 23, 2011, 07:11:29 pm »

Obama at 39%

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/NewsRoom/HarrisPolls/tabid/447/ctl/ReadCustom%20Default/mid/1508/ArticleId/725/Default.aspx
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7577 on: March 23, 2011, 07:39:08 pm »

lol lol lol lol

I have a hard enough time buying Rasmussen's numbers, these are just silly.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7578 on: March 24, 2011, 01:32:01 am »

lol lol lol lol

I have a hard enough time buying Rasmussen's numbers, these are just silly.

It has to do with the fact that Hillary2012 not only posts an Internet poll by Harris, but the fact that it's also an "Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor" poll, which cannot be compared with "Approve/Disapprove" polls. A really good number of "Fair" voters would vote "Approve" in such a poll, therefore Harris' model underestimates Obama's support by at least 5%.

And pbrower, you need to change the code in your map for DC:

DC=2;C;9&FL=4;A;3&GA=4;S;5

to

DC=3;C;9&FL=4;A;3&GA=4;S;5
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7579 on: March 24, 2011, 01:58:46 am »

CA (PPIC)Sad

Adults: 56-38

Registered Voters: 54-42

Likely Voters: 52-44

Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,000 California adult residents interviewed on landlines and cell phones from March 8–15, 2011. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish according to respondents’ preferences. The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±2.8 percent for all adults, ±3.7 percent for the 1,328 registered voters, and ±4.2 percent for the 935 likely voters.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama0311.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7580 on: March 24, 2011, 08:54:25 am »

Rasmussen is 48-52 today.

Ohio (Quinnipiac):

President Obama has a split 47 - 48 percent job approval rating, compared to 49 - 46 percent in a January 20 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Ohio voters are split 45 - 46 percent on whether President Barack Obama deserves a second term, but they favor him over an unnamed Republican 2012 challenger 41 - 34 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1571
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J. J.
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« Reply #7581 on: March 24, 2011, 09:24:42 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%,  u.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7582 on: March 24, 2011, 10:46:41 am »

Rasmussen is 48-52 today.

Ohio (Quinnipiac):

President Obama has a split 47 - 48 percent job approval rating, compared to 49 - 46 percent in a January 20 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Ohio voters are split 45 - 46 percent on whether President Barack Obama deserves a second term, but they favor him over an unnamed Republican 2012 challenger 41 - 34 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1571

Although I don't like Obama, it is good to know that the Republican brand is already back in the toilet, where it belongs.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7583 on: March 24, 2011, 09:01:55 pm »


Interactive polls are worthless because they are easily manipulated.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7584 on: March 25, 2011, 11:00:44 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -1.

Disapprove 52%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%,  -1.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7585 on: March 25, 2011, 12:39:04 pm »

Michigan, PPP:

Quote
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The President is not wildly popular in Michigan, but he would beat every imaginable GOP nominee.

Governor Scott Walker, of either neighboring or across-the-lake Wisconsin depending on what peninsula in Michigan one is in, has been very visible to Michigan media, and he would lose Michigan badly if he were to be the GOP nominee for President.  Interesting inclusion here and very telling. He would be no asset as a VP nominee.

Even with a 47-45 split between approval and disapproval, President Obama would defeat any imaginable GOP nominee for President decisively in Michigan. 



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. An asterisk applies to a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee 15
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  


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J. J.
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« Reply #7586 on: March 26, 2011, 09:16:44 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, u.

Disapprove 52%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%,  +3.


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J. J.
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« Reply #7587 on: March 27, 2011, 09:00:20 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 53%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%,  -1.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7588 on: March 28, 2011, 12:55:25 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%,  -1.

The really wild swings have been in the Strongly Approved numbers.

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Penelope
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« Reply #7589 on: March 28, 2011, 09:50:01 pm »

Gallup continues to have slightly less approval than Rasmussen, but Rasmussen continues to have +4 more disapproval.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7590 on: March 29, 2011, 01:24:51 am »

PPP/DailyKos:

45% Approve
48% Disapprove

Public Policy Polling, 1002 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, Mar 25, 2011 - Mar 27, 2011

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/3/25
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7591 on: March 29, 2011, 02:51:21 am »

PPP/DailyKos:

45% Approve
48% Disapprove

Public Policy Polling, 1002 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, Mar 25, 2011 - Mar 27, 2011

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/3/25

So much for pro-Obama bias by PPP!
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J. J.
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« Reply #7592 on: March 29, 2011, 08:36:54 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -4.

Disapprove 56%, +4.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%,  +2.

I'd suspect a skewed anti-Obama sample.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7593 on: March 29, 2011, 12:00:25 pm »

NC (Civitas):

47% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Perdue-Obama-Job-Approval-March-11-PR-CTs.pdf

Note for Pbrower:

Please do not change the map, the PPP North Carolina poll is the newer one.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7594 on: March 29, 2011, 04:02:07 pm »

NC (Civitas):

47% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Perdue-Obama-Job-Approval-March-11-PR-CTs.pdf

Note for Pbrower:

Please do not change the map, the PPP North Carolina poll is the newer one.

I will change the map, but not for North Carolina. Mississippi checks in:


Quote
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Mississippi politics are really tribal, and a rigid application of the model might be deceptive. President Obama projects to lose to every imaginable GOP nominee -- even Sarah Palin. Note well that he likely loses by single digits in Mississippi to anyone but Mike Huckabee, and Mike Huckabee probably wins by about as much as John McCain did in 2008 because Huckabee is a good fit, at least culturally, for Mississippi.

 



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 36
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. An asterisk applies to a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee 15
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7595 on: March 29, 2011, 04:04:31 pm »

I was going to put this in my previous post, but the Forum software rejected it for excessive verbiage.

The last Democratic Presidential nominee to win Mississippi was Jimmy Carter (1976 -- ancient history as contemporary politics go), who then had a "good ol' boy" persona that President Obama could never affect effectively even if he were white.   

The only ways in which President Obama can win Mississippi involve Sarah Palin as nominee with her making absurd statements on military affairs or foreign policy when such are going well for President Obama but seem to depend upon the re-election of President Obama (white Southerners are the only large group of white people who have a disproportionate  membership in the Armed Forces) or that white Mississippians are able to abandon their tribalistic voting within the next two years. The first would depend upon some contingencies, and the second looks highly unlikely.

....

Favorite Son Haley Barbour would defeat President Obama decisively -- probably by a margin in the high single digits -- in Mississippi. But a 54-46 split of a home state (which is about what a 51-41 split suggests) is very poor for a Favorite Son who has a favorable image in his own state. The Favorite Son advantage is typically worth about 10%, and even a conservative estimate of the effect of the Favorite Son effect and that Mississippi is itself about R+10 suggests that Barbour would lose about 57-43 nationwide. Such would be enough to ensure that President Obama not only wins everything that he won in 2008, but also that he would also flip Missouri, Montana, Georgia, Arizona, South Carolina, and both Dakotas and be on the brink of winning Texas, Kentucky, and Tennessee.  John Thune does better in South Dakota, and my analysis of the 57-something split against President Obama in South Dakota by him suggests that Thune would do badly nationwide.

As a second-tier candidate, Haley Barbour might be as relevant for discussion as a VP nominee. As I see it, the only reason for any nominee to select him for VP will be that he is to play a role similar to that of Dick Cheney as Vice-President (whether one likes that or not), because (1) he's not going to be any political asset outside the South, and (2) if solidifying the vote in the Deep South seems necessary in 2012, then the 2012 Presidential election is a lost cause for the Republicans anyway.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7596 on: March 30, 2011, 07:43:19 am »

Quinnipiac:

42% Approve
48% Disapprove

In a hypothetical 2012 matchup, President Obama gets 36 percent of the vote to 37 percent for an unnamed Republican challenger.

...

From March 22 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,069 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1575
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« Reply #7597 on: March 30, 2011, 08:40:38 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, u.

Disapprove 56%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%,  +1.
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« Reply #7598 on: March 30, 2011, 02:22:08 pm »

His approval has dropped like a rock in a bathtub the last few days. Not just Rasmussen either. Has to be from his Libya address.
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Penelope
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« Reply #7599 on: March 30, 2011, 03:28:57 pm »

For once Gallup is the outlier, not Rasmussen. Probably from disillusioned liberals jumping ship after Libya.
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