Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[pbrower2a]

Pbower2A has been very quiet as of late

I usually discuss state polls of approval and disapproval. The states elect the President, and the people do not. Any Democratic nominee for President loses in a 50-50 split of the popular vote for the conceivable future.

I saw no statewide polling by anyone. 

[pbrower2a]

Global strategies research group (GRG)

Approve; 47% (+4)
Disapprove; 50% (-3)

The dumpster fire may be extinguished.

[pbrower2a]

It's a no brained that infrastructure helped Biden alot and the Insurrectionists Commission that Trump is stonewalling is helping


That's partly why SUNUNU doesn't want to be Senator he stays clear of being labeled as an Insurrectionists R

BBB will give more child tax credits, D's don't have a deficit with D's or Rs they have a suburban problem with WC Females

It's a Blk, Brown and Female as well as WC female election that's why Whitmer is tied with James

Kelly Ayotte isn't running, either, suggesting that she does not see the Senate seat up for grabs as something in easy reach. President Biden has just gone through a time of political stress that has been resolved. Distress does not go away easily, but stress can.

In a country as polarized in ideology as America is, demographics is destiny. Republicans would win big with electorates similar to those of 2010 or 2014. They lose big with an electorate similar to that of 2018. We have yet to know what the turnout will be like in 2022. A huge shadow, the effects of the Capitol Putsch, looms over American politics. Maybe Democrats can exploit that; they would be fools to not do so. I can imagine ads comparing the January Putsch to the Bolshevik Revolution and to the Beer Hall Putsch. People able to rationalize the nullification of an election and political violence should be recognized as traitors to the Constitutional standards that separate America from totalitarian and despotic regimes. If I am targeting Cuban-Americans, Vladimir Lenin is not quite as much a bogey as Fidel Castro or Che Guevara, but he is someone to hold in contempt among those who hate Castro.

The best sequel possible to Trump is blandness. President Biden is blandness. I expect him to let the legal process take its course, which will be a disaster for Republicans who still support Trump or can be connected to him in any but the safest districts and states. Republicans who have distanced themselves from President Trump can get re-elected.     

[pbrower2a]

Polls don't matter, but the trendline of polls do. Dems should probably be preparing to flee to Canada if they aren't willing to sacrifice all their political beliefs, because the way this is heading, the GOP dictatorship and mass incarceration is around the corner. Do not delete this for hyperbole, because reality is not hyperbole, even if it seems extreme.

We have endured much political stress lately, and until that is resolved the President will endure some bad polling. The one stress that isn't going away is the investigation of the Capitol Push, but for that the President is not the target.

[pbrower2a]

Iowa, Selzer for the Des Moines Register, USA Today, and Gannett.

Biden’s approval ratings have plummeted since taking office. Iowans disapprove of the job he's doing as president by about a 2-to-1 margin.

Biden’s job approval has not been in net positive territory in Iowa since March. Then, 47% of Iowans approved of his performance and 44% disapproved.

Today, one-third of all Iowa adults, 33%, say they approve of the job Biden is doing as president, ticking up 2 percentage points from the Register’s last Iowa Poll, conducted in September; 62% percent disapprove; and 6% are not sure.

“This is not a good approval rating by any definition,” Selzer said.

Biden is rated poorly for his handling of a range of issues. Fewer than a third of all Iowans approve of his handling of immigration, criminal justice, the economy and the situation in Afghanistan.

On those specific issues:

Twenty-four percent of Iowans approve of the way Biden is handling immigration. Another 66% disapprove and 10% are not sure. Among Democrats, a minority approve, 47%.
On criminal justice, 28% of Iowans approve, 53% disapprove and 19% are not sure. Among Democrats, 60% approve.
Iowans continue to rate Biden poorly on his handling of Afghanistan after overseeing the U.S. military’s withdrawal from the country, relinquishing control to the Taliban. Today, 22% approve, 68% disapprove and 9% are not sure — his worst metric among issues tested. Among Democrats, a minority approve, 49%.
Thirty-two percent of Iowans approve of Biden’s handling of the economy and 61% disapprove. Another 7% are unsure. But Democrats give him a 77% percent approval rating on the economy.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/11/13/iowa-poll-trump-leads-biden-possible-2024-matchup/8609852002/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=usatodaycomwashington-topstories

37% approval? Trump was there in Iowa once and still won Iowa in 2020.

Biden approval:


positive and between 50% and 54%
positive and under 50%
white: tie
negativeand between 45% and 49%
negative and between 40% and 45%
negative and  below 40% [

37% approval? Trump was there in Iowa once and still won Iowa in 3030.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1459920694532358144?s=20

I really don't get these numbers. You approve policies of this administration, you approve Biden's agenda but why in the hell you disapprove his presidency?

Yup. Dems are just hilariously inept in selling their accomplishments and policies.

FDR did extremely well.  People were concerned about the growth of the role of government, but not if it made life better for them or saved the system. Full-blown Gilded-era plutocracy was no longer available, so people who believed in plutocracy had to choose between the New Deal that staved off revolution, Hitlerism, or Stalinism. The choices are not so stark now. 

[pbrower2a]

This is so tue

Unfortunately, in the era of social media facts don't matter, which is why 63% in the new WaPo-ABC poll said Biden has accomplished “not very much” or “little or nothing” so far in his presidency despite the fact the he is on currently track to beat both trump and bill Clinton when it comes to Major bills that he has successfully passed

Agreed. Biden accomplished the highest inflation rate in 31 years and made real incomes sink despite healthy recovery. Who are the people, that say it's "little or nothing"??

At this point if it was Biden and the Dems I would just focus on making sure the overall economy as great as possible by the end of 2022 despite inflation. When I say great I'm talking about having an unemployment rate of 3.5 or even lower

even with that kind of success it still is not enough to overcome the misinformation on social media, but at the very least it will force many in the mainstream Media to begrudgingly acknowledge the fact the economy is doing very well at that point

As I been saying, ironically, Biden/Dems were shooting themselves in the foot, when they fearmongered about covid. IIRC a lot of people indicate "covid" is the reason to not come back. But if you're vaccinated, Covid is literally less dangerous than flue. Haha, what goes around, comes around. Will be fun, if Dems will be annihilated in 2022, because of this (among other things)

COVID-19, which has killed nearly 800,000 people in America so far, is a legitimate object of fear.  

 

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1460347507481796611?s=20

So based on this poll Biden is actually doing better compared to when he lost to trump 68% to 29% in 2020.

Biden would have had a chance to win West Virginia -- in 1996.

Considering that these numbers are for West Virginia, this isn't shabby for President Biden.Much of the other deep-blue will likely soon be shown as obsolete. Much state-by-polling is done over the weekend and gets posted in the middle of the week.

Biden approval:


positive and between 50% and 54%
positive and under 50%
white: tie
negativeand between 45% and 49%
negative and between 40% and 45%
negative and  below 40%

[pbrower2a]

Much of the other deep-blue will likely soon be shown as obsolete.

I really hope so. Biden doesn't deserve to descend into W Bush territory.

Unrelated - do you have tomorrow's lottery numbers too?

I don't believe in lucky numbers.

[pbrower2a]

Aggregators always lag reality. So, for that matter, does my map, which itself is an aggregator. So let us suppose that a fresh poll of Wisconsin has  Biden approvals at 50-46 (note that this is hypothetical) while I still have Michigan at 38-51. Does that suggest that Michigan is still at 38-52? Hardly. Most states move in tandem with some others, and Michigan is usually more D than  Wisconsin. Michigan has greater Detroit and Detroit itself while Wisconsin has Milwaukee and Greater Milwaukee. Detroit and Greater Detroit are much bigger than Milwaukee and Greater Milwaukee, and that makes all the difference.

 

[pbrower2a]

You can count on this: the GOP and its fronts will seek bogeymen to scare people about non-existent menaces such as Critical Race Theory. Know at all times: the GOP is the Party of the slumlord, the loan-shark, the rapacious tycoon, and an an executive elite that acts iike the old Soviet nomenklatura. Its ideology now encompasses the Confederate flag, the banner of the defense of slavery and now such cranky stuff as General Winfield Mattoon Scott -- excuse me, Michael Flynn  -- who thinks that America needs only one religion so that it can unify behind one interpretation of reality. They had America and bungled the response to COVID-19 at a cost characteristic of a major war.

These people play a cat-and-mouse game in which what they win is to remain theirs in perpetuity and that whatever the Other Side must be put at risk every time until some miracle favors them.. When they get enough  miracles working for them, then they can establish their Union of  (fundamentalist) Christian and Corporate States. If you think of such reminiscent of another Evil Empire, the old Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, then I intended that allusion. 


 

[pbrower2a]

https://www.marquette.edu/news-center/2021/new-marquette-law-poll-finds-majority-of-republicans-favor-a-trump-run-for-president-in-2024.php


Approve; 49%
Disapprove; 51%

With this level of approval, the state-to-state map should start to look much better as new statewide numbers emerge.  

Keep salivating, Republicans! This is close to a win analogous to Reagan versus Carter in 1980 as you will ever see.

Biden approval:


positive and between 50% and 54%
positive and under 50%
white: tie
negativeand between 45% and 49%
negative and between 40% and 45%
negative and  below 40%

[pbrower2a]

Lol
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1461457171074355206?s=20

Well, not the state whose approval number I am most interested in. Still, that's one small step for one state.

Biden approval:


positive and 55% or higher
positive and between 50% and 54%
positive and under 50%
white: tie
negativeand between 45% and 49%
negative and between 40% and 45%
negative and  below 40%
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/PollsandOdds/status/1461775434153177095?s=20

Biden approval:


positive and 55% or higher
positive and between 50% and 54%
positive and under 50%
white: tie
negativeand between 45% and 49%
negative and between 40% and 45%
negative and  below 40%

[pbrower2a]

Texas

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1462446702464585733?s=20

Well, it looks as if the catastrophic polling that followed the Afghanistan departure is abating.

Biden approval:


positive and 55% or higher
positive and between 50% and 54%
positive and under 50%
white: tie
negativeand between 45% and 49%
negative and between 40% and 45%
negative and  below 40%

[pbrower2a]

As I said before, D's problem are job shortages, people on Disability we're going to ticket to work in 2019/ and before, now with the Pandemic, they have no incentive to get back out there, there are people in Disability milking the system before the pandemic, but more so now, they have raised the pay but look CVS pharmacy were cutting hrs and now they're closing most of their stores, due to inflation

 Most females and Minorities worked for CVS

The consumer society is a strong incentive for work even if one is disabled. I am on disability, and I look at it as a sort of unemployment insurance. I have more means of seeking work and changing location if I must do so. I see myself able to work if I can get work that recognizes my abilities and can accommodate my disability.

The 24/7 economy in which food-handling box stores such as Wal*Mart are open all hours is no more. It may not return. The 24-7 economy is reduced to hospitals, lodging, some fast-food places and convenience stores.   

These jobs shortages are stopping a full blown recovery, but Biden is responsible he stopped building the Wall and let all these immigrants with Covid into US, when Covid started with record low immigration under Trump they were mostly European coming to NY and we gotten a handle on it

The border wall was a boondoggle. It would make more sense to upgrade US 83 into a full freeway from Harlingen to Laredo than to build an ecologically-destructive and ultimately ineffective waste of a border wall along the lower Rio Grande valley. There are far more effective ways to use infrastructure funds such as building traffic circles at junctions in rural areas. Insurance companies love traffic circles, as they greatly reduce the number and severity of vehicle crashes. They are far less expensive than  even the cheapest diamond interchanges.

We may be seeing the end of an era of super-cheap labor in restaurants and stores that compel workers to either stay with parents or put up with overcrowded apartments and trailers. I see that as a good thing.
       

It's still a 304 map as Nate Silver said but if there isn't any wave insurance in the Senate it's gonna be very difficult to hold onto H

I am still optimistic about Ryan and Beasley chances because Ryan mentor is Ruben Gallego but we need better polls

COVID-19 is now disproportionately killing people likely to vote R in elections, and politicians who have excused or praised the Capitol Putsch will often be brittle targets for negative campaigns. Some campaign ads practically write themselves. Negative ads are far more effective than positive ads, and this time Republicans who can't separate themselves from Donald Trump will stand to be burned.

[pbrower2a]

Trump promised that the factory jobs would return if we would return to the Golden Age (really the Gilded Age) in which enterprise was free to do whatever it wanted.

[pbrower2a]

https://i.imgur.com/488Czsg.png

Internals, with no change for Michigan or Pennsylvania, but better for Biden in recent polls in Georgia and Wisconsin. Still abysmal. There will be more polls.

Biden approval:


positive and 55% or higher
positive and between 50% and 54%
positive and under 50%
white: tie
negativeand between 45% and 49%
negative and between 40% and 45%
negative and  below 40%

[pbrower2a]

Who cares about useless polls a yr before an election anyways

They can show trouble.

[pbrower2a]

Polls are portents. They can show cultural shifts that manifest themselves in weaknesses for incumbents and opportunities for challengers as attitudes shift. They can show the effectiveness of campaigns to transform political attitudes. They can show the inability of current politicians to get positive stories in the media. So if veteran journalists treat a politician as a pariah because of some scandal (graft? messing with children? cocaine?) then that will lead first to dampened enthusiasm.

Ordinarily one expects incumbents seeking re-election to get re-elected. They usually showed why they were elected the first time. If those reasons are no longer so, then poor polling might appear. Maybe an incumbent got elected because the opponent that year did something really stupid, like trivializing rape so that he could please the anti-abortion constituency. The next time the challenger will be more careful.

Polls can indicate that a politician who looks good from outside that state isn't so beloved outside it (Donnelly, McCaskill) or that someone who seems odious outside of his state (the late Jesse Helms was a prime example) has just the touch for winning one election after another in that state. Liberals can excoriate such current Congressional creeps as Gosar, Gohmert, Bobbert, and Greene... but they got elected, didn't they?   

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1466506648940212225?s=20

Utah. No surprise.

Biden approval:


positive and 55% or higher
positive and between 50% and 54%
positive and under 50%
white: tie
negativeand between 45% and 49%
negative and between 40% and 45%
negative and  below 40%

[pbrower2a]

IBD/TIPP

Approve; 43% (+3)
Disapprove; 43% (-2)

https://www.investors.com/politics/president-joe-biden-approval-rating-gets-a-bounce-among-democrats/

This comeback suggests that President Biden is within range of getting re-elected.

The number to watch is disapproval -- not approval. What does not disapprove is accessible through suasion in a spirited, competent campaign. President Biden isn't campaigning now, which is a big difference from Donald Trump.

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1466506648940212225?s=20

Utah. No surprise.

Biden approval:


positive and 55% or higher
positive and between 50% and 54%
positive and under 50%
white: tie
negativeand between 45% and 49%
negative and between 40% and 45%
negative and  below 40%

What happened to your NUT MAPS

It’s technically not his map

You wouldn't use a 1982 road map for a long road trip, would you? Electoral reality changes even faster.
 
t

[pbrower2a]

We're in a Pandemic Trump was at 37 whereas Biden is at 42 in this pt in the Prez that's why Biden Approvals are so low

Trump's approval levels went as low as they did because of moral gaffes, political incompetence, and inability to convince people outside his zone of political support. At one point the consequences of his support of tariffs included disapproval numbers near 60% in Iowa and Ohio because of Chinese sanctions upon American agriculture.

Rather than undoing the tariffs (which are bad taxes, arguably the most disruptive of all taxes in an advanced economy, Trump flooded rural America with farm subsidies to buy crops that will likely end up rotting. Such is effective politics if horrid economics. He did win Iowa and Ohio  through this, practically buying the farm vote. 

Paradoxically Trump came close to winning re-election because COVID-19 disproportionately killed voting-age black and Latino people in the crowded parts of giant metro areas such as Atlanta, Detroit, Las Vegas, Milwaukee, Phoenix, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh.

President Biden's polling numbers are low for reasons having nothing to do with moral turpitude, demagogic economics, or mishandling of a natural disaster. The fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban results from the deal that President Trump cut. If America should end up at war again with the Taliban, then the fault will be with Donald Trump.

President Biden has done mostly what Americans saw right and appropriate up to about fifty years ago. He is reviving New Deal politics that went out of fashion in time for the rise of the Religious Right and Ronald Reagan. What has changed is that the Religious Right and the myth surrounding Ronald Reagan remain alive, and Donald Trump has fit that into a refractory cult that isn't going to vanish slowly. Mercifully that cult has disproportionately slight appeal to youth and is literally dying off because it is old.

Yes, I well know that saying much the same was possible about Jimmy Carter, but there is a big difference: Reagan had youth appeal. It's hard to see what high-prominence Republican has that. Governor DeSantis is an Atlas favorite, but he has been cooking the books on COVID-19 about as severely as Enrob executives were cooking the books on the finances of their company. Should DeSantis get the Republican nomination for President, then the Democrats will use that against him. Biden supporters get inoculated, and Trump supporters demand miracles.
     

[pbrower2a]

I already stopped donating

Biden is in huge trouble.

Cook and Sabato ratings have it a DS Senate and an R H Fetterman is leading Oz that means we can still win the 304 map in the Senate

We must take these low Approvals with a grain of salt these polls last time oversampled D's we were supposed to have a 413 map, Biden is in trouble but Cook have WI, PA and MI as D plus 2 states

They're now oversampling Rs especially Traggy, the Rs just caved on the Debt Ceiling and D's are gonna get a bump from BBB and Biden as soon as he delivers his SOTU speech is gonna get a bump

But we haven't heard anything from pbower2A

I stopped donating because I only donate to wave insurance candidates and it's a 304 map anyways that means Beasley, Ryan, Beto and Nan W

If I was to predict on my Atlas map for 2022 we will get 80 M votes to Rs 74 M and get a carbon Copy of 2020 map Biden can win 50/45

In this thread I largely discuss polls in existence. It is rare that I predict polling trends in approval unless something is so blatant that it can't be ignored (which includes extrapolation). I stick as much as possible to the quantitative. All else is not polling.

[pbrower2a]

The voters whom are non Blk are blaming Prez Biden for COVID 16 and they don't care if the Rs are gonna reverse many of the Covid restrictions Blks are the most loyal group of voters but the erosion are among Latinx and Female voters

The Fox polls show that Latinx are split 37/37 among D's and Rs and female voters voted for Glenn Youngkin that's what's wrong with Biden polls

But, Covid is our new normal and we're stuck with it no matter Rs take over, the Rs like DeSantis want to fire Fauci, are these the ones that are gonna get rid of Covid when they get in office if you fire Fauci no

We got rid of Trump when he had super spreader rallies but Rs are putting on a facade that somehow Covid is magically disappear when they assume office, it's gonna be just like under Trump

But, we voted for Gavin Newsom he hasn't done nothing since he got reelected that goodness this is LAST TERM IF ITS AN R WAVE HE CAN LOSE BUT WONT BECAUSE ALEX PADILLA IS ON THE BALLOT HE IS ANOTHER JOE BIDEN

JERRY BROWN WAS MUCH BETTER GOV

SINCE THE RECALL THEY HAVENT POLLED HIS APPROVALS NEWSOM I DOUBT HE IS AT 57%, we have another Gray Davis he didn't lay out a plan to get rid of the Homeless he ran on Stimulus checks that everyone didn't get

Then it is a matter of messaging. President Biden isn't on the campaign trail a year after the Presidential election. Trump was campaigning all the time, making speeches touting why he had to be re-elected. President Biden is doing the work that one expects of an elected executive to do: setting policy and implementing it. Campaign-style speeches a year after the Presidential election or three years before the next one do nothing to that effect.

The biggest Trump policy in 2017, aside from getting reactionaries appointed to the US Supreme Court, was to push tariffs supposedly to create manufacturing jobs. Those tariffs proved a disaster to farmers when China took action against American farmers who supplied foodstuffs to China. Trump would eventually open the spigots on farm subsidies to buy the support of the rural population that depends upon farm incomes directly or otherwise, which isn't as wise as ditching the tariffs. Opening the spigot on subsidies is a fiscal disaster. (Tariffs are sneaky, bad taxes, and the only justification that I can see for them is that the people who pay the tariffs through retail transactions are richer than those, like peasant farmers, who do little consumption of imports. Tariffs distort manufacturing costs and make exports more expensive than otherwise. Income, use, value-added, and even wealth taxes cause less distortion to the economy).  

Campaigning is messaging. There is a time in which to campaign and a time in which to legislate or administer if one is an elected official.

President Biden is making fewer, and less severe, mistakes than Trump. He has his priorities right on COVID-19. He has made the inoculation available at the perfect price for public health in view of the collective danger from COVID-19 from anyone who comes down with this killer: free. Nobody has any excuse to avoid the vaccine unless a religious principle (check the denominations on inoculation for it) or a medical contraindication such as an allergic response. People are dying of it, but the vast majority dying of it are those who have not gotten vaccinated.

I could give other good reasons to get inoculated, aside from "it's good for Humanity":

1. diabetes (a medical disaster, and if you must give up sweets or alcohol to avoid it, then do so)
2. organ damage
3. slow recovery if one survives that keeps one out of the workplace
4. cognitive loss (one becomes stupider, and usually less competent to do work that one has done
5. stillbirths (Hey, Right-to-Life folks: those must be as unwelcome as abortion!)
6. sexual dysfunction
7. fatal infections of beloved pets
8. financial ruin if one gets COVID-19.

Cancer and birth defects have yet to be proven, but that might become obvious later.

OK, right-wing media do everything possible to attack anyone not fully theirs. In view of how badly those media have done in response to the plague, maybe people ought to give more of a break to Democrats. That's before I discuss the effects of the January 6 Putsch. Elected members of Congress  have yet to be named for involvement in the plot, but if they are not expelled by Congress itself as an Elks lodge would expel someone who committed violence therein, then that will be up to the voters.