Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[pbrower2a]

Worth noting that the Fox poll with Trump at a record 48/51 approval has now released their GE matchup numbers:

Biden 49, Trump 40

Also:

The race remains a nine-point advantage for Biden over Trump when looking only at those voters extremely interested in the election (52-43 percent) and the former vice president has an eight-point edge in battleground states (48-40 percent).

However, Biden’s advantage grows to 25 points, 57-32 percent, in close counties (where Hillary Clinton and Trump were within 10 points in 2016).

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-leads-trump-wins-high-marks-for-female-vp-pledge

Sounds like a junk poll. Don't see how it's possible for an incumbent president to be at 48 percent approval and only polling 40 percent in a GE matchup.

They like what he has done so far but are scared of what follows?

[pbrower2a]

Social distancing is very stupid, we have all been vaccinated with chicken pox, and we have had pandemics in the past during the chicken pox era during the 1980s which I came down with. Most of the people coming down with coronas and dying are the sickly. Until social distancing is lifted, I dont think Trump can get credit for anything

Don't be so sure. People who had chickenpox can get shingles, a very nasty disease, later. Much later, maybe fifty years or more after they were children. COVID-19 has made people seemingly healthy very sickly very quickly and then killed such people. Not to trivialize HIV/AIDS, which is much slower in giving its victims a medical crisis and in finishing off its victims, COVID-19 makes people deathly ill and kills people off quickly. Besides, the early profiles of AIDS victims (heavily involved in reckless sexuality or IV drug use and thus easy to dismiss as social pariahs) is very different from the earliest victims of COVID-19 in America, the "frequent flier". The latter profile is of well-heeled, highly-educated, high-achieving movers-and-shakers in business, medicine, law, academia, the arts, and politics...and with traveling salespeople who make our economic system tick. The response will be different when such people do the dying than with such people as IV drug users.

COVID-19 has spread to people not so privileged and often deserving such... to people not so well-off. One such community is Americus, Georgia, the small city close to a small town in Georgia where resides the oldest former President in American history. Americus is not a prosperous community of movers-and-shakers. The Republican Governor of Georgia has been slow to lock down his state, and Georgians have been paying the price. (Fulton County, Georgia, which contains Atlanta and what is usually the world's busiest airport has locked down by local order without any decision from the Governor. Atlanta is in far better shape with respect to COVID-19 than is Americus.

(What is the saying about Atlanta? It is a civilized and sophisticated, fully-modern city surrounded by Georgia). 

...Hoping to see Jimmy Carter avoid harm so that he can get to watch the landslide defeat of someone as lacking in virtues as he is rich in them...   

[pbrower2a]

Worth noting that the Fox poll with Trump at a record 48/51 approval has now released their GE matchup numbers:

Biden 49, Trump 40

Also:

The race remains a nine-point advantage for Biden over Trump when looking only at those voters extremely interested in the election (52-43 percent) and the former vice president has an eight-point edge in battleground states (48-40 percent).

However, Biden’s advantage grows to 25 points, 57-32 percent, in close counties (where Hillary Clinton and Trump were within 10 points in 2016).

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-leads-trump-wins-high-marks-for-female-vp-pledge

Sounds like a junk poll. Don't see how it's possible for an incumbent president to be at 48 percent approval and only polling 40 percent in a GE matchup.

They like what he has done so far but are scared of what follows?

It just usually doesn't work like that and certainly not by that big of a margin. Incumbent presidents usually run ahead of their approval ratings which is why 45 percent approval is the generally accepted threshold for reelection.

45% approval is a point from which one can win re-election as Governor or Senator, and as President (assuming that running for re-election for President is like running for re-election to gubernatorial office or a Senate seat) with a spirited and competent campaign able to reach enough of the undecided -- if one can go from 45% approval to 50% of the vote.

But one must make progress. Such requires a spirited, competent campaign capable of assuaging doubts and fears. Obama succeeded well at that, getting about the maximum of 6% that an astute and competent campaigner can get. Note well that Obama never faced the overpowering contempt that Trump has experienced a shown in some of his horrid disapproval numbers. Note that Trump heavily touted the levels of securities prices as evidence of his competence as a steward of prosperity. OK, Obama never endured a stock market crash and did not have a plague on the scale of CORVID-19 that some say could be as devastating to American lives as was at the most optimistic that I can give (the combat deaths of the Vietnam War) to the worst (the American Civil War, Union and Confederate tolls together).

There is little less heroic and meaningful in life than death from a contagious disease. Recognizing that there were people who got AIDS for reasons other than IV drug use or reckless sexuality, most people who died of AIDS were schmucks who experienced unintended consequences of their bad behavior. Millions of Americans are finding that they must put up with lonely, dreary, boring existence for a few months so that they can avoid dying of respiratory diseases rare in the First World (except among people dying of other causes).  I can think of some reinforcement, especially in that there are few places to go now worth going to because they are closed. Maybe one of the Great Lakes shores before summer, but if you know what Michigan is like in the early spring those places are still out of season.

I certainly do not want to use any bus, train, or airliner in which the Angel of Death is a passenger not paying a fare.

Anyone who goes to Spring Break in Florida is a schmuck.     

[pbrower2a]

Quippiniac poll, Iowa.

Trump approval 60%, disapproval 43%. Trump 54, Biden 48.

University of Indianapolis, Inniada:

Trump approval 54%, disapproval 43%. Vote 57 Trump, 42 Biden

Loof-Lipra polls, Utah:

Romney 53%, Trump 32% Biden who cares?

New Mexico

Biden 62%, Trump 40%

Ohio

46% Trump, 49% Biden. DeWine approval 58%


Michigan

Detroit Tigers approve 22%, disapprove 71%

[pbrower2a]

Quippiniac poll, Iowa.

Trump approval 60%, disapproval 43%. Trump 54, Biden 48.

University of Indianapolis, Inniada:

Trump approval 54%, disapproval 43%. Vote 57 Trump, 42 Biden

Loof-Lipra polls, Utah:

Romney 53%, Trump 32% Biden who cares?

New Mexico

Biden 62%, Trump 40%

Ohio

46% Trump, 49% Biden. DeWine approval 58%


Michigan

Detroit Tigers approve 22%, disapprove 71%

Is this April Fools?

Well. Quinnipiac polls usually come out today...

[pbrower2a]

Starting over. We have just gone through some political chaos from the stock market crash (it is a crash, and it may not be through) and of course the COVID-19 plague with the President's erratic responses.  Things could get worse for the President, and here's a poll of Pennsylvania (PPP) as the start of the new round of polling on my map.

This is not April fool stuff here.

Trump: approve 45-disapprove 51 

Trump:

approval 45% or less and disapproval over 50% (likely Biden)

[pbrower2a]

If Trump can keep his newfound popularity, I think the election is good as his. The real danger is that the popularity is fleeting or they are composed of Democrats who approve of Trump temporarily but intend to vote for Biden.

At the moment, it looks like that the latter case is true but it's also true we've seen polling showing a closer race. FTW, I think Biden's a terrible candidate, but objectively, he's held leads over Trump consistently, so we will see if the situation holds.

What newfound popularity? Democratic governors, including Tony Evers (hint to what follows), get better marks than Trump for handling CORVID-19.

Marquette University Law School, Wisconsin:

approval 48%, disapproval 49% --- Biden has a lead of 3%.

 https://law.marquette.edu/poll/

You know eventhough www.electionprojection.com has an T bias, they keep up Trump's approvals as well, and they are saying it's a 279 EC map

 

At this point, 279 looks like the minimum for Biden.

And for a great non-mystery, 55 electoral votes ring in.

Biden - 67
Trump - 29

Trump's approval is at 29%.

962 V, conducted 3/28-3/29

https://www.strother-nuckels.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/CaliforniaResults1.pdf

Disapproval is at 64%.

Trump:

approval 40% or less (Trump has no chance)
approval 41-45% and disapproval 50% or higher(likely Biden)
higher disapproval but disapproval under 50% (edge to Biden)

[pbrower2a]

Michigan: PPP, March 31-April 1, 1019 voters

Approve 45
Disapprove 49

On Trump's handling of the coronavirus outbreak: 46/49

Election matchup: Biden 48, Trump 45

Gov. Whitmer's approval is 54/34 overall, 62/28 on the virus.

Expected worse FWIW. -4 approval and Biden +3 in Michigan after Trump's not so bright remarks by PPP (partisan per 538).

We now have the three barest wins of 2016 for Trump.

Trump:

approval 40% or less (Trump has no chance)
approval 41-45% and disapproval 50% or higher(likely Biden)
higher disapproval but disapproval under 50% (edge to Biden)

[pbrower2a]

Georgia: Battleground Connect, March 31-April 1, 1035 LV

This is an internal poll for the Doug Collins (R) Senate campaign.

Trump favorability (not approval): 48/46.  Trump leads Biden by the same 48-46 margin.

If Georgia is that close in an internal poll, then President Trump is in deep trouble nationwide. There is no imaginable compensation for Trump losing Georgia. If Georgia is that close, then Trump stands to lose either North Carolina or Florida.

[pbrower2a]

MSN surveyed approval numbers for Trump and the governor in every state.  Trump's approval ranged from 69% in Wyoming to 10% in Hawaii. Some interesting states:

MN 41
NV 42
CO 43
ME 43
VA 43
MI 44
FL 45
NC 45
PA 45
WI 47
AZ 48
GA 48
IA 48
NH 48
OH 49
TX 49



The governor ratings are being discussed in this thread.

This is approval for handling of the virus, NOT job approval.

That makes them even worse, tbh

It is awful for the President, who did not have a timely and appropriate response.  Just a reminder: we are now in the peak time for spring...tornadoes.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1246106359772430338?s=20

With the caveats that
(1) this is an internal poll
(2) for a Senate candidate
(3) and favorability...

it doesn't look good for Trump's prospects nationwide, considering the state that it is.

Trump:

approval 40% or less (Trump has no chance)
approval 41-45% and disapproval 50% or higher(likely Biden)
higher disapproval but disapproval under 50% (edge to Biden)
higher approval than disapproval but under 50%

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1246106359772430338?s=20

With the caveats that
(1) this is an internal poll
(2) for a Senate candidate
(3) and favorability...

it doesn't look good for Trump's prospects nationwide, considering the state that it is.

You shouldn't factor in the Georgia poll at all considering it's an internal and that's guaranteed inaccurate rather than merely suspect.

Relevancy.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has taken frequent polls of Georgia. Let's put it this way: if Georgia is close, then Trump is losing. And, this is indeed an internal poll for a candidate, so things could be worse for the President than this poll suggests.

If it is simply Georgia this time -- then it is still one state that the President cannot afford to lose.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona, Monmouth. Landline only, which might give an unwarranted edge to Republicans. It is favorability

5. Is your general impression of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? 

ALL REGISTERED VOTERS   March 2020
Favorable   41%
Unfavorable   50%
No opinion     10%
      (n)   (847)

Biden is up 3% over Trump.



3A. Who would you vote for if the candidates for president were Donald Trump the Republican and Joe Biden the Democrat? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

ALL REGISTERED VOTERS   March 2020

Donald Trump   43%
Joe Biden   46%
(VOL) Other candidate   3%
(VOL) Would not vote   2%
(VOL) Undecided   6%
      (n)   (847)

Trump really needs to be at 45% or higher at this stage (sure, 43% is OK in January, but it is now six months before the election and not eight, and that makes a difference).

In other news, Senator McSalley seems headed for defeat. This is in a state that has gone only once for a Democratic nominee for President since 1948. OK, so the demographics (a fast-growing Hispanic vote to which Donald Trump cannot relate). Still, Trump needs this state, and this poll suggests that he will lose it.

Arizona is becoming more like Colorado in its politics.

My focus here is not so much approval numbers as it is who has the edge in the various states.   

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_AZ_031620/

Trump:

approval 40% or less (Trump has no chance)
approval 41-45% and disapproval 50% or higher(likely Biden)
higher disapproval but disapproval under 50% (edge to Biden)
higher approval than disapproval but under 50%

[pbrower2a]

Florida: U. of North Florida, March 31-April 4, 3244 RV

Note: this is approval of the coronavirus outbreak only (NOT general approval):

Approve 45 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 43)

How much they trust Trump to provide reliable information on the pandemic:

A great deal 27
A fair amount 14
Not much 13
Not at all 45

They also asked the general election matchup:

Biden 46
Trump 40

“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters – not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder warns. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election."

[/quote]

When all is said and done, Trump will win only if he does well at both

(1) preventing a recession, and
(2) keeping COVID-19 from becoming a monumental disaster.

If he fails at either, then he will be defeated. The President's performance on COVID-19 is a good proxy on approval and disapproval of him overall. It's like this: if your house is on fire, are you so concerned about your arthritis?

The elderly population within Florida is especially at risk from CORVID-19 and surely knows this well. 53% disapproval of the President on one critical issue of life and death?  Unless this changes, Trump is not winning Florida. The 46-40 advantage to Biden might get whittled some, but I don't see that happening quickly.

At this point I see Biden getting 328 or more electoral votes without knowing how he will do in Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, or Texas.

Trump:

approval 40% or less (Trump has no chance)
approval 41-45% and disapproval 50% or higher(likely Biden)
higher disapproval but disapproval under 50% (edge to Biden)
higher approval than disapproval but under 50%[quote

[pbrower2a]

Louisiana is not a fan either. Meanwhile, Edwards getting his best marks ever.

Trump job approval: 52/41 (+11)
John Bel Edwards job approval: 66/18 (+48)

Trump virus approval: 50/41 (+9)
John Bel Edwards virus approval: 68/16 (+52)

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/LouisianaResultsApril2020.pdf

At this point Trump easily wins Louisiana, but maybe not by the double-digit margins to which we are accustomed throughout much of the South.  Louisiana should be deep blue if Trump is winning nationwide, and not medium blue. The opposite side would be that a state like New Jersey or Washington giving a 52% approval to Obama in 2012; such would suggest that Obama were losing nation even if Washington were a sure thing.

I see Trump support tanking even in unlikely places in view of this poll. Enough that he would win only seven states as did Hoover in 1932 or six states and Dee Cee in 1980 for Carter in 1980? Let's not rush. I'm still assuming a 'normal', close election  

Trump:

approval 40% or less (Trump has no chance)
approval 41-45% and disapproval 50% or higher(likely Biden)
higher disapproval but disapproval under 50% (edge to Biden)
higher approval than disapproval but under 50% (edge to Trump)
approval 50-55% (Trump wins barring a collapse of support)

[pbrower2a]

Not that I predict something like this... his approval ratings have been below 40% at times after some egregious misconduct. 

[pbrower2a]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 6-7, 1116 adults (1-week change)

Approve 40 (-4)
Disapprove 55 (+4)

They have not (yet) published strongly approve/disapprove or RV numbers this week (they're sometimes oddly inconsistent that way).

To add to the previous post:

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 5-7, 1500 adults including 1147 RV

Adults:

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+5)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-4)


RV:

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 53 (+3)

Strongly approve 30 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+3)

2020 (RV only):

Generic D 47 (+2), Trump 42 (nc)
Biden 48 (+2), Trump 42 (nc)
Sanders 48 (+3), Trump 42 (-2)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 39 (nc)

No way does the President win with numbers like those. Note well that time is running out on the 2020 electoral season. Disapproval at 51% makes re-election require significant improvement in the view of the President, and disapproval at 55% suggests a landslide loss.

55% disapproval means that GOP support erodes in places in which Republicans are usually safe. It would be difficult on my part to predict where that would happen... maybe white Southerners might become less tribal in their voting habits.

Of course there is no legal difference between winning the White House with 275, 375, 475, or even 525 electoral votes... but at such a point I could even see Doug Jones getting re-elected in Alabama and some surprising losses for Republicans.

COVID-19 has been killing Americans in large numbers (in what epidemiologists call "excess deaths") for perhaps two weeks, and the toll in such a time is beginning to exceed  combat deaths in "small" wars. The raw numbers can easily reach those of American combat deaths in the Korean and Vietnam wars. Americans, and people in other advanced industrial societies, do not ordinarily die in large numbers of respiratory infections except as complications of existing (and usually terminal) cases. Pointless death offends us, which explains why we have laws against drunk driving -- let alone murder. Political leaders involved with pointless death such as wars whose purpose few people understand or understand for reasons inconvenient to those leaders, are in deep trouble. Think of LBJ, who actually achieved some very good things for multitudes of Americans.  

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1247949229756203009

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1247949229756203009

Why, for heacen sakes, are 33% of latinos supporting Trump??

Trump got 28% of the latino vote in 2016, so 33% is pretty close to the margin of error. Wouldn't surprise me if he got about 25-30% again.

I would go along with such, barring a further collapse of Trump support, which I do not yet see.

[pbrower2a]

Trump is not gonna win, regardless if it's a 413 election or a 278 election,  Trump is doomed and will take McConnell or the R senate with him. Regardless of McConnell loses, but Amy McGrath and Doug Jones stands a chance in this environment.  Bush W only won reelection due to Katrina, another national disaster took place in 2005, not 2004🤩🤩🤩

deleted

Say that of the people who have died of it. The news media are giving us the ugly statistics every day... numbers, just as in casualties from a war.

I am old enough to remember the Vietnam War, and as American fatalities got into the 200-a-day range, Americans started to lose faith in the President. That's when war protests started. You know how that went:

"Hey, hey, LBJ... how many boys did you kill today!"

We have passed 15,000 deaths... and it won't take many days for America to experience as much American death as came from combat in the War in Vietnam that few Americans recognize as a noble cause today because it was so bungled.

Consider this: people in advanced industrial countries generally do not die of respiratory infections unless they are already dying of other conditions such as cancer or congestive heart failure. Respiratory diseases kill largely in 'backward' countries with extreme poverty and poor access to medical care for the poor.

America has suddenly become an underdeveloped country with inadequate infrastructure of medical care thanks to the callous incompetence of a President who fails to recognize his shameful inadequacy as a leader.  

[pbrower2a]

With several caveats (these polls involve on-line, self-selected polling that may understate populations unlikely to be on the Internet or to not trust polling, such as older, poorer white people of limited education -- and I say this because other ethnic groups don't have such a variance from other voters in their groups), here is one near-50-state poll involving the Internet.

Source:https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/polls

Note that a Trump collapse looks much like this.

Note that Vermont, the District of Columbia, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming are not polled. I have educated guesses about the districts. But we need not be stupid about those electoral bailiwicks. Trump will be absolutely crushed in Vermont and DEE CEE (deep red) and will win North Dakota (medium blue), South Dakota (medium blue), and Wyoming firmly (deep blue).

Biden 55% or higher
Biden 50-54%
Biden ahead with 49% or less
ties are in white
Trump ahead with less than 49%
Trump 50-55%
Trump 55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

I was wondering is pbrowler2a not doing the approval rating maps, due to the improvement of Trump poll numbers or what?

It's not like him to stay away from maps this long

He's doing them again with help of MSN "poll"!

That's not really a poll.

In any event, it has limitations which I recognize (it surely under-counts large populations that have no access to the Internet). It also shows what a collapse of Donald Trump looks like.

The objective in showing approval ratings is to predict as well as possible on the basis of information available how the election will go. The match-ups matter more than do the approval ratings.

[pbrower2a]

Latest Civiqs data

Overall: 43/54 (-11)

Arizona: 43/54 (-11)
Colorado: 40/57 (-17)
Florida: 46/51 (-5)
Georgia: 47/50 (-3)
Iowa: 49/49 (=)
Michigan: 45/53 (-8)
Minnesota: 43/55 (-12)
Nevada: 39/58 (-19)
New Hampshire: 38/58 (-20)
North Carolina: 44/53 (-9)
Ohio: 51/47 (+4)
Pennsylvania: 45/51 (-6)
Texas: 51/46 (+5)
Virginia: 42/56 (-14)
Wisconsin: 46/52 (-6)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true

These, I regret, include polling data from as early as January. Still, these leave little question: the President is in deep trouble.

[pbrower2a]

Re: the MSN "polls". I posted this in another thread, and it too much effort on my part to do differently here. It is germane to this discussion, so here it is. Thus "12R" is a 12-point gap favoring the Republican (Trump), "tie" means exactly what you think it means, and "5D" means that a 5% gap favors the Democrat (Biden)

 

Showing the trend, which really counts.

Reliably R:

state	3/1	3/15	4/11
AL	16R	19R	12R
IN	10R	10R	5R
KS	16R	15R	12R

States racially-polarized (usually R, but oddities this year):

state	3/1	3/15	4/11
LA	2R	4R	2D
MS	3R	6R	1R
SC	6R	3R	2R

Fringe of contention Trump wins, 2016

state	3/1	3/15	4/11
GA	TIE	2R	4D
NC	5D	4D	10D
TX	4R	2R	TIE

Obama 2012/Trump 2016 + AZ

 

state	3/1	3/15	4/11
AZ	1R	1D	5D
FL	6D	6D	11D
IA	TIE	1D	6D
MI	8D	8D	11D
OH	1R	2R	5D
PA	7D	11D	12D
WI	4D	5D	8D

Bare Trump losses 2016

state	3/1	3/15	4/11
ME	12D	13D	17D
MN	15D	16D	21D
NH	1D	2D	7D
NV	12D	12D	16D

Fringe of contention against Trump, 2016

state	3/1	3/15	4/11
CO	10D	11D	15D
NM	17D	19D	18D
VA	9D	8D	13D

Reliably D

state	3/1	3/15	4/11
CT	23D	25D	28D
IL	24D	24D	28D
WA	22D	22D	28D

D max-out

state	3/1	3/15	4/11
CA	32D	33D	36D
MD	30D	29D	34D
NY	31D	32D	37D

I have generally sought to have states in voting categories that are diverse in demographics and geography. I have only two states with fewer than six electoral votes.  

Do I think this polling completely reliable? Hardly. It rules out people who have no Internet access or do not know how to use it. That likely means older, poorer, less-educated people. If such people are Hispanic or non-white then that means little because poorer people in  such populations vote much like the younger, richer, better-educated people in their groups. The sorts of people that Hillary Clinton understandably yet regrettably called a "basket of deplorable(s)", the "low-information voters" for which Trump expressed love, are likely under-represented. This likely most applies to the states that I have placed in the "racially-polarized" category, where white people are especially likely to at least be poorer and less educated... in states in which usually voting divides neatly on ethnic lines.  

Still, although I see effectively no change between March 1 and March 15, I see an overall swing of about 5% in practically all states. This is consistent with the Quinnipiac poll (+8) from the middle of last week, one for CNN (+11), and the poll by a British pollster with whom I am unfamiliar (+12). I would not be surprised to find polling by news agencies in countries that find, except for COVID-19, the 2020 Presidential election of the United States to the most likely biggest story of the year.  

Collapses happen in Presidential races, and they usually have obvious and evident cause.

[pbrower2a]

MSN wasted money on spending money on states that's not gonna be competetive due to the fact that Senate races are important factors in the Prez matchup as well. That's why they should of polled the Senate races in conjunction with the Prez race and they would have saved themselves time that AZ, CO, ME and MT are Dem pickups and can go with the 278 blue wall

That's why www.electionprojection.com still has 278 blue wall minus AZ in the Senate still as a prediction.

Even a six-month-old poll can be relevant when nothing changes on net. But should there be a surge or collapse, even a two-week-old poll can be worthless. President Trump has taken a big hit in every category of state that I showed -- four to six points in the spread with Biden. Maybe you can contest these polls for distortion due to competition of the people polled (because it is an Internet poll it is likely to understate the number of older and under-educated people who, if white, vote very differently from younger, better-educated white people, and of course more sympathetically for Trump.

The pattern seems to hold in every category of states -- most seriously in the states that were in meaningful contest in 2016. Were Trump projecting to do about as well in 2020 as in 2016, then the polling situation would look more like that of March 1 than of April 9. The shift is out of the range of margin of error, and to my surprise it is quite uniform.  

www.electionprojection.com may be accurate for what it shows at a certain time, but that is obsolete.

You can trust that there will be more polling, so if you see something like "Pennsylvania -- Trump approval 38%, disapproval 57%" instead of "Pennsylvania -- Trump approval 44%, disapproval 52%"... then this polling will be more consistent.

When the earliest thread about Trump approval and disapproval was made, I tried to interpret approval and disapproval numbers in a way predicting the 2020 election. Trump was likely to win any state in which his approval was 50% or higher and had little chance, barring big changes, of any state in which his disapproval was over 52% Trump approval and disapproval over time was remarkably stable. That seems to now be no longer the case.

Trump could win with a 3% margin against him because almost all of that margin was in states far out of meaningful contest. He loses narrowly with a margin of 4% against him. When the margin gets to 7% he loses by the same percentage margin as Dukakis in 1988 or McCain in 2008. At 8% (the Quinnipiac poll from basically a week ago and reported in the middle of this week) he loses 54-46, which means that he is losing 3/4 of the electoral vote (roughly 400-138). At this point I would make the case that the difference between 375 and 413 electoral votes for Biden is Texas. At 11% or 12%, weird things are happening. If erosion of the tribal white vote in the Mountain and Deep South begins (the white vote goes about 80-20 in such states), then those states return to patterns characteristic of (Bill) Clinton wins in the 1990's or even of the Carter win of 1976.

Should the Trump campaign collapse as I see it based on the Quinnipiac, CNN, and Lord Ashton Polls... attention will naturally go to the Senate.