New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread

[Pres Mike]

Even if Haley wins, I wouldn't think much of it. Look at 2020, Buttigieg and Klobuchar nearly won NH despite having close to zero support in the rest of the country

NH doesn't vote like American. The state means nothing

[Pres Mike]

Even if Haley wins, I wouldn't think much of it. Look at 2020, Buttigieg and Klobuchar nearly won NH despite having close to zero support in the rest of the country

NH doesn't vote like American. The state means nothing

How dare you

Lol, folks in Iowa and New Hampshire need to hear the hard truth

[Pres Mike]

I really, really, really want to talk to a voter who thinks the election was stolen but also supports legal status for undocumented immigrants. There's gotta be at least a few, right?

Probably a second generation Mexican American man. Works in oil industry in Texas. Middle aged Gen Xer, voted for the first time in his life in 2020 for Trump

Still has some relatives who are recent immigrants or lots of immigrant friends. Maybe his wife?

[Pres Mike]

Not entirely sure what average Wasserman is using, but it's clear that Haley isn't just breaking 40%, she's shattering it. It's not a winning number, but it probably would have been if DeSantis was still a candidate....

So far, the results are mostly from cities and town. Where Republicans are more moderate and where Democrats are (ones who might have voted for Haley)

The Republican vote is still mostly in rural areas which haven't reported in yet. The ones that have, Trump is leading by a lot. Haley getting 40% is hard, 45% even harder.

[Pres Mike]

I really hope Phillips gets under 20%, I want to deny him "victory"

[Pres Mike]

I really hope Phillips gets under 20%, I want to deny him "victory"

Phillips is easily clearing 20%. The question is more about 25% or 30% at this point.

He's currently at 21.2%

[Pres Mike]

I'm guessing results are about to start coming a lot sooner? At 7 central /8 eastern

[Pres Mike]

Any news outlet that didn't call this for Trump at 8pm is an embarrassment.

CNN would have waited days to call the 1984 election lol with their current mentality

[Pres Mike]

OMG why are the results taking so long?

[Pres Mike]

Most boring primaries ever.

Also it looks like polls are pretty accurate so far this year. Which should concern Biden supporters.

President Biden's polling has actual improved these last week

[Pres Mike]

I really hope Phillips gets under 20%, I want to deny him "victory"

Phillips is easily clearing 20%. The question is more about 25% or 30% at this point.

He's at 21% right now. Why would he gain 5-10% by the end? You keep saying stuff with no evidence backing it up.

He is now at 20.3%

[Pres Mike]

Fun while it lasted, still hope Philips or Williamson are there for Super Tuesday.

Haley's holding out better than I thought.

Haley, Philips and Williamson are all losers. Always have been, always will be

[Pres Mike]

What is taking so long?

[Pres Mike]

What is taking so long?

What are you talking about?

Voting is done. Aren't the vote count machines automatic? When I volunterred election day 2016 they were (but I was in Tennessee)

What is taking so long?

New Hampshire always counts slowly.

Relatively not really....I mean they could be Arizona.

Or worst...New York

[Pres Mike]

What is taking so long?

New Hampshire always counts slowly.

Why? They don't have automatic voter counters?

This slow process shows why they deserved to be booted from second place

[Pres Mike]

Nikki Haley currently thanking God for losing by 8-10 points... optimism is a positive trait I suppose

Yeah, she did convert to Christanity. And dye her hair and change her name all to be more white passing

[Pres Mike]

Why would Haley drop out? It's not like she has much of a political future anyway. Doesn't seem like a bad idea to stick around as the Trump alternative and get 20-30% of the votes.

She only did as well in NH because Independents and Democrats were allowed to vote in the Republican primary

She'll be lucky to break 10% in any future contest outside of DC

Nikki Haley currently thanking God for losing by 8-10 points... optimism is a positive trait I suppose

Yeah, she did convert to Christanity. And dye her hair and change her name all to be more white passing

She converted when she was 25, well before any political career. She didn't change her name, it's her middle name. And her middle name is actually "Nikki", it's not a shorthand for "Nicole", "Nikki" is a Punjab name that just coincidentally happens to be the same as a common Anglo nickname. And even if she did dye her hair it doesn't look different from most Indians.

Yes, I know Nikki is her actual middle name. I am also a brown person and I'll let you know a little secret about us children of immigrants. If you go by another name other than the first name your parents gave you, you are trying to "assimilate". You think she would have been elected governor of South Carolina if she went by her first name?

She is lighter than the average Indian. She's 5'6, the average height of a woman in India is 5'0. And she has caucasian facial features, she possibly had facial surgery although the evidence online is mixed at best.

She is white passing lol. How many dumb Americans actually know her background?

[Pres Mike]

I hope NH sticks it to the DNC again in 2028.

Why? Neither NH nor Iowa deserve to be the first states. President Biden did the right thing booting them

[Pres Mike]

What time will the results be finished?

[Pres Mike]

the amount of GOP voters to Dem voters in this primary should be concerning for Democrat's. Maybe I am wrong..

Wow you mean more people voted in a primary with all the candidates on the ballot and that's actually being contested and actually counts for delegates than a primary with no delegates awarded that only has Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson on the ballot in a completely non-competitive primary? That's a shocker!

The R:D turnout ratio in 2012 was 4.096.

Too early to compare tonight, given how much of the vote is coming from Democratic towns and cities, but the ratio so far is 2.459.

So wouldn't that be good news for Democrats if these turnout comparisons meant anything? (Which they probably don't.)

They don’t explicitly say anything. Turnout differentials have been a decent prediction of party enthusiasm, but you have to adjust for so many things here that they become a case of data saying whatever you want it to.

Of course, if we’re looking at a world where Biden gets 2012 margins in NH, Trump won.

The Haley vote is obviously 2024 Biden voters who simply switched to the GOP primary temporarily.

So just count the Trump vs Biden+Haley raw primary vote for NH for a more accurate picture.

That I think will be around Trump 165k vs Biden+Haley 189k.

Yeah

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-nearly-half-haleys-iowa-backers-say-ll-vote-biden-trump-rcna133821

All this talk of "half of Haley voters wont back Trump in general" is silly. These people alreafdy voted for President Biden in 2020. They are the "Never Trump" Republicans from 2016 lol

Not remotely enough to hand the election to Democrats and never will be

[Pres Mike]

I have seen enough now and will go to bed.

Let's all hope Marianne Williamson drops out soon and Dean Phillips stays in the race until the MI primary at least. Which is an open primary. MI will give us clues about Biden's popularity in another, large, swing-state.

If Phillips gets no more than 20-25% there either, he should probably drop out.

Or after Super Tuesday.

Do you still think it was a mistake for Biden to boot NH? He is on track to beat Phillips by 60 points

[Pres Mike]

"Other write-ins" is going to finish ahead of Marianne Williamson.

Why is she even in the race? What is she hoping to get out of this? Book sales I guess?

Also I can't believe she actually made the debate stage last time.

The first few 2020 primary debates were jokes. Who bright idea was to have 20 people spread over two nights?

There were people on alternatehistory.com defending that system! I had to leave that foolish place!

[Pres Mike]

"Other write-ins" is going to finish ahead of Marianne Williamson.

Why is she even in the race? What is she hoping to get out of this? Book sales I guess?

Also I can't believe she actually made the debate stage last time.

The first few 2020 primary debates were jokes. Who bright idea was to have 20 people spread over two nights?

There were people on alternatehistory.com defending that system! I had to leave that foolish place!

I just remember Beto coming out immediately speaking Spanish and cringing as hard as I ever have. In hindsight, we really were about as much of a clown show that year as the GOP always is.

I wanted to limit to 10 people for the first debate, 5 for every debate after that. Boy did the folks on alternatehistory.com attack me lol

Why didn't Democrats do a undercard debate in 2020? Like what Republicans did in 2016

[Pres Mike]

Bernie tries hard to win the primary and ekes out a margin against some small-town mayor, burning his cash. Biden wins without even being on the ballot.

Checkmate, Bros.

lol. How well did Biden do in that 2020 primary, again?

I'm a fan of both Bernie and Biden

And NH just isn't remotely representive of the nation as a whole. Like at all

[Pres Mike]

"Other write-ins" is going to finish ahead of Marianne Williamson.

Why is she even in the race? What is she hoping to get out of this? Book sales I guess?

Also I can't believe she actually made the debate stage last time.

The first few 2020 primary debates were jokes. Who bright idea was to have 20 people spread over two nights?

There were people on alternatehistory.com defending that system! I had to leave that foolish place!

What's so bad about how it was in 2020?

You had clowns like John Delaney with 0% support on the same stage as Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren

They split 20 candidates between two debates, back to back. It was random so no undercard debate. That was held in June and July 2019

We had to wait until September or October for all the serious candidates to be on the same stage

In December, you needed 5% effing percent to qualify. So you had jokes like Cory Booker and Andrew Yang threaten to sue the DNC to be allowed to debate. Their reasoning despite only polling at 1% at most?? Effing “diversity”

The whole time, you had clowns on alternatehistory.com defending this foolishness and attacking me for suggest this isn’t what most democratic voters want. I said Democrats want to see the serious candidates together. And that most of the jokes were really wanting VP or a cabinet job or book deal