MD-SEN 2024: Cardin retiring, Hogan IN

[Spectator]

Also, any bets on the first idiot pundit to suggest that Hogan would make this race anything other than Safe D?

It would be Likely D in the unlikely scenario of Hogan vs Trone in my opinion.

No, it would be Safe D. Trump is going to lose the state by probably more than he did in 2024. Democrats did just as well as Biden last year, if not better, in every part of the state. The only reason they didn’t beat Biden’s margin percentage wise was because of comparatively low black turnout in PG and Baltimore City.

[Spectator]

I’m moving my prediction from 55-45 to 60-40 Alsobrooks, if not 65-35

I don't think it would even be that close. She's getting noteworthy endorsements from party players in other counties. This thing will be a blowout.

[Spectator]

I’m moving my prediction from 55-45 to 60-40 Alsobrooks, if not 65-35

I don't think it would even be that close. She's getting noteworthy endorsements from party players in other counties. This thing will be a blowout.

The only thing stopping me from fully going for that is Trone is a congressman with a lot of personal wealth. I could see him performing well  among wealth white suburbanites

Wealthy white liberals are the exact kind of people to pay themselves on the back for voting for a black woman in a federal primary. If it was a governors race or local race, I think it’d be a different story.

[Spectator]

I wonder if he'll hit 40%.

[Spectator]

I will say, though, I did not have Larry Hogan running for Senate on my bingo card… he declined to run in the past, and said he had no interest in the Senate. With the way he’s criticized Trump, I thought a No Labels/third party presidential bid from Hogan was more likely than a Senate run.

Hogan is Republicans Bullock

His chance to run was 2022 without a presidential race atop the ticket and while he still had the influence of the governor's office behind him. He wouldn't have won then, but it probably still would have been a Van Hollen win in the teens.

[Spectator]

What does Hogan's path, if it even exists, look like? The 2018 map isn't a good barometer but neither is his 2014 map.

His 2014 map entailed him winning Anne Arundel County by a 2-1 margin, winning Frederick County by 30 points, winning Baltimore County by 20%, and winning Howard County by 5%.

For comparison, Biden won:
-Frederick County by almost 10%
-Anne Arundel County by almost 15%
-Howard County by almost 45%
-Baltimore County by 27%.

Mind you, all these counties have gotten bluer every cycle since 2014.

In short, it’s not happening. There is no path.

[Spectator]

I imagine Hogan would rather run against Alsobrooks than Trone but I don’t know enough about her or about Maryland swing voters to say for sure.

I read a single Politico article on the situation so I'm now basically an expert. Gonna go out on a limb and declare this race only lean D if Alsobrooks wins the D nomination, moving to lean R if Hogan can capture some moderate Murkowski energy instead of seeming as much of a generic R as he has been.

There is no reason aside from Trone’s self-funding to assume Alsobrooks is weaker than Trone. Alsobrooks does not present like a #Squad member at all if that’s the insinuation. She’s very much part of the Dem establishment.

[Spectator]

I imagine Hogan would rather run against Alsobrooks than Trone but I don’t know enough about her or about Maryland swing voters to say for sure.

I read a single Politico article on the situation so I'm now basically an expert. Gonna go out on a limb and declare this race only lean D if Alsobrooks wins the D nomination, moving to lean R if Hogan can capture some moderate Murkowski energy instead of seeming as much of a generic R as he has been.

There is no reason aside from Trone’s self-funding to assume Alsobrooks is weaker than Trone. Alsobrooks does not present like a #Squad member at all if that’s the insinuation. She’s very much part of the Dem establishment.

All black and brown Democrats born in 1970 and onward are Squad members I guess. I guess Hakeem Jeffries is part of the Squad now too, I guess.

I don’t get it. If anything, Alsobrooks is probably marginally more pragmatic than Trone is. Not that she wouldn’t vote with the D caucus 100% anyway though. Only difference is Trone would jump for the cameras for the annoying sound bites.

[Spectator]

Hogan's chances are effectively zero. He's already 10 points behind and this should still be his honeymoon phase. There's a good chance he loses Frederick and Anne Arundel counties with how fast they've been flying to the left.